Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytmike: EXCLUSIVE: Bolton's book draft says Trump told him in August that he wanted to continue freezing aid to Ukraine until they hel… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytimes: Breaking News: President Trump said he wanted to keep aid to Ukraine frozen until its officials helped him with investigations… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

New Iowa cross-tab: Sanders '16 precincts: Sanders 31, Warren 21, Biden 17, Buttigieg 14, Klobuchar 6 Clinton '16 precincts: Buttigieg 25, Sanders 23, Biden 20, Warren 12, Klobuchar 11 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite we did not, though i did find myself wishing we had gone further than just the 4-way race — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And, yes, Bernie is the second choice of Warren supporters, folks. Just because lane's aren't perfect doesn't mean that Warren's support would redistribute evenly and no candidate would benefit from her decline — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And that's particularly true with Warren in the danger zone for clearing viability in many areas. If she weakens an… https://t.co/QTDQ4VP66K — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One interesting thing about Warren/Klobuchar emerging as the early newspaper ed. board favorites is that they could… https://t.co/1YD7OYBSnU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@LiteralDreams reg. independents and republicans were also called, were able to participate in the dem primary, and… https://t.co/WoVsUeobyT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@billscher yes, which is what this is here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another difference is that the Selzer/CNN/DMR poll doesn't weight by education. If we drop the education weight as… https://t.co/aBGVWpDL9b — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One difference is that the Selzer/DMR/CNN poll appears to exclude all unlikely voters, while we give anyone that passes the first screen some chance of voting. This doesn't make a huge difference. If we had done so, Biden would have lost a point and Buttigieg would have gained 1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The composition of the Selzer/DMR/CNN poll is a mystery, but methodologically it seems pretty similar to ours. The… https://t.co/nxkDqIChbw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JohnAnzo even if we eliminate the 18-29 year old vote, bernie still leads this — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JohnAnzo perhaps, but if we're talking about the difference between 24 and 28% or something (as you said, could be up to 30) then this wouldn't explain a material difference on the horse race number — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DKarol i think there was a decent o'malley/uncommitted vote on first alignment https://t.co/8W8GZG6OT7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'd note, fwiw, that our 2016 self-reported caucus vote is Clinton 49, Sanders 46, O'Malley 5, which sure seems right to me. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Nope, Bernie leads among past caucus-goers https://t.co/8yDxRajnu9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer https://t.co/9R6d9TGflX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think there's truth to this, but I'm not sure it's the biggest driver of variance here: Bernie Sanders would lead our poll without *any* 18 to 29 year olds in the sample. https://t.co/i0VeiIi1mR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten It’d be pretty fun if CNN would release the composition of the electorate for a comparison! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jmartNYT @melbournecoal More crosstabs and the methodology here One minor typo, I should note, is that on the 'nat… https://t.co/vUT9rmze1p — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JohnAnzo it's a typo-- it's 65 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dianefeldman @alexburnsNYT delete your tweet — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dianefeldman @alexburnsNYT oh please https://t.co/9R6d9TGflX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jmartNYT @melbournecoal And voters in the state oppose impeachment by a wider margin, with approval of House impeachment at 42/53 and support for conviction at 41/53 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jmartNYT @melbournecoal On the other hand, the president's approval rating has increased to 51/46, up from 49/48 i… https://t.co/aQNAo1qNdK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jmartNYT @melbournecoal The news for the president is mixed. His standing in the horse race is about the same as it was in our October poll. He leads by 1 to 8 points against various Democratic rivals, with Sanders faring worst of the Dems contesting the caucus. All better for Ds than '16 https://t.co/livASlAIBQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jmartNYT @melbournecoal We'll have more on the electorate and likely voter screen later, which does have big implications for the differences between polls. But in this poll, there's no likely voter screen that we would have considered that would have yielded a fundamentally different result. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbarro @jmartNYT @melbournecoal in the 4 way race, buttigieg/biden add up to 46, sanders/warren 49 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jmartNYT @melbournecoal One striking finding--in contrast to national polls--is that the lanes are fairly clear. The moderate lane, it seems to me, is a hair smaller than the left lane, and it is both more evenly divided than the left and it is split more ways, now that Klobuchar has inched up to 8 — PolitiTweet.org