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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
...she really is the best — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
No Selzer poll. No results. It was inevitable — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
With that in mind, the Iowa Democratic Party saying "quality control" definitely raises my eyebrows. This year, they're getting all the results for the first time. And I wonder whether they're finding out that people just aren't doing this right a lot more often than they thought — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
I point this out because there are ordinary people out there trying to make sense of these rules in running these caucuses. And I like to think I have an above-average shot at figuring it out, and we still had to ask questions of the Iowa Democratic Party — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
In doing the "needle," I had to go through the steps of trying to actually formally spell out how you do an Iowa caucus. And I have to tell you, it was way harder than I thought. These rules are complicated. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
I can imagine the huge number of candidates + high turnout making it take quite a bit longer than last time. But nowhere is a surprise — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
By this time, nearly 80 percent of the total vote was counted in the Iowa Democratic caucus in 2016, at least based on the data we have saved from last time. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
At the moment the entrance polls appear--to my eye--to show a narrow Sanders lead. Suppose that's true--and it might not be--then add the likely Sanders disadvantage in the vote-to-SDE conversion, and you could wind up with things moving quickly https://t.co/xtsPrlWTPb — PolitiTweet.org
Kabir Khanna @kabir_here
Still preliminary, but Buttigieg gaining from realignment in sample caucuses we've heard from so far #IowaCaucuses
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @kabir_here: Still preliminary, but Buttigieg gaining from realignment in sample caucuses we've heard from so far #IowaCaucuses — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
As a few of you have noticed, the needle is now 'on.' Right now, each model run includes just 1000 simulations, so… https://t.co/shXrjdez29 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Looks like Trump will win the GOP caucus https://t.co/vSzXeNwAOR — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
35% new Democratic caucus-goer is higher than our poll (32%), but we didn't have a huge difference between new/traditional caucus-goers in our poll. Bernie led both — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The last two Selzer polls had Biden in 4th. I don't know what you all expected. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
This is one point different, for each candidate, than what you would get if you took the last DMR poll and added the change from the prior Monmouth poll #predictable https://t.co/D55av8xCc2 — PolitiTweet.org
Clare Malone @ClareMalone
We can confirm the final results of the unreleased Iowa Poll: Sanders 22% Warren 18% Buttigieg 16% Biden 13% https://t.co/deTryUiHgt
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @ClareMalone: We can confirm the final results of the unreleased Iowa Poll: Sanders 22% Warren 18% Buttigieg 16% Biden 13% https:… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@kyleinthworld you'll see them by the end of the night — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
And no, this isn't based on anything more than preelection poll average. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
We've also added some words to go along with the win probabilities. I like them https://t.co/INoeu8Vi6B — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
T-minus 2 hrs 27 min until the doors close in Iowa — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
NYT results are live for Iowa, including: --four needles --precinct results map, by all 3 vote measures --live upda… https://t.co/jCfMA3R908 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@PatrickRuffini i mean you're poststratifying on a cell of n=1, but the process is the same — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@PatrickRuffini "Vote intentions were imputed onto voter file records in Iowa and then aggregated statewide and by district" — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@PatrickRuffini pretty sure that's what it was in this case — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @ForecasterEnten: What time might we get a winner?... https://t.co/XYvkVmZN87 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
(Biden 33, Klobuchar 18, Buttigieg 17, Sanders 11, Warren 11) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
It's ok our prior for this satellite caucus was rigorously estimated by taking our estimated result for Iowans over… https://t.co/SNqDxHmxK5 — PolitiTweet.org
JB @jorbucc89
@Nate_Cohn By my estimation, the youngest person in the room was pushing 50
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
We had Klobuchar taking second in the snowbird caucuses to Biden, but Klobuchar wins first alignment in the first o… https://t.co/MCicZPnJPc — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@jbarro i've done better abroad than in-state so far — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
One fun thing about these satellite caucuses is that I had to come up with some expectations for how they'd vote, which I did using the highly sophisticated technique of stereotyping the satellite caucus locations (nursing home, college, paris, snowbirds etc) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Which is to say: whether you draw the line at MRP or not, polling averages are probably already suffering some of the costs of a model-based polling world — PolitiTweet.org
