Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing you can see on the current needle, fwiw, is that we believed that the remaining non-satellite aka terrest… https://t.co/49Y2oI79ZY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another factor here is that the Iowa Democratic Party is awarding SDEs in the satellites differently than how we interpreted the rules and we're going to need to fix that too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I can't really express how sorry I am about this right now, and I just don't have any other words beyond "sorry" right now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It seems that the satellite caucuses weren't in the regression, and since it was at the end... there was no opportunity to see in advance (as long-time followers know, we often have to do this in life settings, including 1st results last night). We're adding it back — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Nope, the needle is perfect and it only fails when we fail it, as we did tonight https://t.co/hxJ5QwWqsF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well we're going to evaluate, but it sure seems to me that-- despite being set up to accept it and model them separ… https://t.co/20hWyojMjg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: Rural Dem atrophy: in 2012, Obama carried Clarke County, IA 50%-48% over Romney. In 2020, Trump received more than twice as… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're starting down the path of trying to evaluate whether the data at least makes sense, leaving "verification" as… https://t.co/nxAichmrHR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And to be clear: I don't see any obvious errors here. But I'm not set up to independently verify it, either. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

*cxn -- 2 pledged delegate lead. My bad. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If I made projections--and I do not--I would still hesitate to pull the trigger, given my general lack of confidence in the results they're putting out there. All the issues I saw on last update are fixed. But, am I sure it's right at the moment? Can't say so. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We also now think that Buttigieg is favored to scratch out a one pledged delegate lead over Sanders, though a tie is possible — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the last update, nearly all of the precincts in Des Moines and Waterloo came in, exhausting Sanders' major areas of outstanding strength. Buttigieg could be expected to do better in what's left — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We also believe that Bernie Sanders is on track to win the most votes on first preference But the final alignment vote is too close to call https://t.co/dAwexCeuE3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't know whether we would be at a *projection*-->99.9%--if we had the satellite caucuses. But I think that's a distinct possibility — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's still a bit of uncertainty in the estimate--I think we're only at 99% to win. But we still have no satellit… https://t.co/wKvnyINRRL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Pete Buttigieg is on track to win the Iowa caucus, according to our estimates https://t.co/DyLroWLBId — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Updated results from the IADP appear to show this issue remedied. Buttigieg lead at 24 SDEs (down from 28 at their last proper update, and down from 48 during the error) at 85% reporting. Still looking, but obvious errors gone; Sanders back in Des Moines/Waterloo etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@UpshotNYT Waterloo is Black Hawk County, btw. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Updated results from the IADP show Buttigieg lead at 24 SDEs (down from 28 at their last proper update, and down from 48 during the error) at 85% reporting. Still looking, but obvious errors gone; Sanders back in Des Moines/Waterloo etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To the conspiracists in my thread: they often gave the vote to Sanders on first alignment; it's an obvious mistake in entry — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It also may be that the Warren SDEs went to Steyer — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @iowademocrats: There will be a minor correction to the last batch of results and we will be pushing an update momentarily. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I hope there are good quality control checks at the networks, because if they had been real these results would have triggered projection calls at the networks (needle went to >99 buttigieg) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

lol what you think they'd try and sneak a Deval Patrick sweep in central Des Moines by? https://t.co/pMq75lJSu2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I suspect they'll fix this pretty quickly. And to be fair, I bet they're getting pretty tired at this point over there. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Patrick you'll note is up to 21 SDE, and that covers most of Buttigieg's expanded lead in my initial tweet (if you remember it) https://t.co/ScWQUecTRb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

it seems the new results have entered many likely Sanders results in Polk County as Deval Patrick or Steyer. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

going to delete initial tweet. i think there are some errors in the new precincts in this latest batch — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I have some questions about the reliability of these results. — PolitiTweet.org