Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The example--shown in the piece--very clearly awards satellite SDEs in direct proportion to county delegates, witho… https://t.co/BXEDptTv4m — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't know what's going to happen here. But to me personally, the examples in the appendix clarify the meaning of the delegate selection rules beyond reasonable doubt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

More doubt about the Iowa caucus result: the party has awarded SDEs in satellite caucuses in a way that appears to… https://t.co/SWMn1NNzKX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I sincerely have no idea--that is not to say there is no actual answer here, just that I do not know it based on what's at my disposal--and it is conceivable that the result turns on it https://t.co/7Jj8IeZTca — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should clarify/correct that there are two *sets* of rules, not two interpretations of the same rules — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, with the number of irregularities per batch of new votes seeming to increase every time, you've got to wonder what they're dealing with on these final 4% of results lol — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, I do see zero reason to believe that all of the worksheets themselves offer internally consistent results that follow the rules without irregularities. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And to be clear, it is our estimate that Sanders is gaining a net-four SDEs over Buttigieg under the current IADP method compared to the other interpretation — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is not a recanvass in any traditional sense of the word, but this does make sense in so far as an actual recanvass might have only made things worse https://t.co/SfVFgZ3x5W — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I will leave it to the IDP to interpret its own rules, but it seems there are others with a different view here as well and I would not 100% discount the possibility that there could be a change down the line on this, though I'd assume no — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Returning to this, another area of uncertainty is the way the IDP has calculated the SDEs for the satellite caucuses, which is different than we expected. By our estimates, there's a net-4 SDE swing toward Bernie under the IDP method and that's a lot https://t.co/5FZLjoaPeY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And it is even conceivable that it works the other way. We have three poorly tallied results that don't make sense.… https://t.co/paiHcFWshU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@bernie_students because 15% threshold is so important, and biden's right up next to it while amy is well below — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Don't get me wrong: it can help. And maybe someone will lead by enough to make the remaining measurement error substantively irrelevant. But like... it's close enough that it really might not be enough — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Unlike a typical recount, there's not necessarily a reason to assume the preference cards are more accurate than the vote tallies, since we don't really know that all properly tallied voters have their preference cards properly reported, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The preference cards themselves are subject to measurement error, and there will probably be irregularities and inconsistencies in those as well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Many of the irregularities may result from improper implementation of the caucus procedures, which would be reflected in the preference cards — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I find it exceptionally hard to see how a recanvass will fix it all https://t.co/O8fhYeICSF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For this sort of reason, a perfect 'recount' of all the various preference cards may not be possible either, since… https://t.co/TWQTWh66FI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Take this seemingly obvious case. There's no way to get from that final alignment to that SDE. But final alignment… https://t.co/MeKHTMnydy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We could just assume, for instance, that all the tabulations are right and the SDEs are wrong when in conflict. But… https://t.co/gtIzvyIJlQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't see any evidence obvious evidence that the errors favor anyone--the precincts in error are quite representa… https://t.co/rlrNOiNMkk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are more than 100 precincts in Iowa with some kind of irregularity or inconsistency in the returns across one of the various vote counts, according to our analysis, easily covering the narrow margin in the race https://t.co/JBGkHVoBVz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One mystery, which you'll have to wake up in the morning to read about, is how all of this will change when the man… https://t.co/0FOibo1ai6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This often includes precincts in counties Bernie has won, like Polk County, where most of the remaining precincts are suburban — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With all that said: with satellite caucuses accounted for, we think the race is a tossup with Bernie's favored very narrowly. The remaining non-satellite caucuses are probably good for Pete, which keeps him in the game https://t.co/qXwEnK4sYH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, for maybe not the last time: I'm sorry. We work really hard on this stuff and that makes it all the more disappointing for it to go this way. I think the standard for us is to essentially be perfect, even on this particularly imperfect caucus — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And this is just an inherent risk in live results. Every time we ever do this, something pops up--including last ni… https://t.co/016CTbbN2V — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the interest of transparency, I should say that we still would have had Buttigieg as a very clear favorite all the way up until satellite returns were tabulated, even if we had been processing them as we intended. We would not have guessed all but unanimous Sanders margin — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Before I tweet out an update, I want to apologize profoundly for the satellite caucuses error. At this particular moment it couldn't be any more important to get things right. And while this was undoubtedly an especially complex caucus to nail, we undoubtedly did not nail it — PolitiTweet.org