Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I believe our estimate was Sanders to get 50% of the vote there, so if 4 people vote we've got a shot to nail it. B… https://t.co/g8RCkzc8kK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Dixville Notch, you'll be interested to know, is Sanders' best projected township in New Hampshire according our estimates. That's in part because he got... 100% of the vote there last time. And there are going to be like 3 votes so... let's just say it's a noisy estimate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Wow I can't believe how many likes this got lol Appx. 85% credit to @KevinQ https://t.co/0zq4ZGHRSZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: Who got the biggest bounce out of Iowa? Well according to Q-Pac it was Mike Bloomberg. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For illustration, here's two hypothetical scenarios 1) Sanders 31, Biden 21, Butt./Bloom./Warren at 12.5% Here, San… https://t.co/BdRAuyAGYa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's such an unstable situation from a delegate standpoint, with three candidates within 2 points of the 15 percent… https://t.co/zGmEzupLX6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

15 is a big number for Bloomberg for a number of reasons, and with Sanders at just 25... https://t.co/4GK7t4Dd71 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One interesting twist in New Hampshire is that the candidate who receive the most votes is considered the winner — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jbview: So a couple of things. One is 538-collected and scored endorsement pts post-Iowa: Bloomberg 18 Biden 7 Pete 6 Bennet (!) 3 War… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, two-day polls can be a bit noisy. But notable in the circumstances. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It seems to me that every fully post-debate poll has Klobuchar in double digits in NH, including the daily subsampl… https://t.co/zP0d2WG0SH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That gets you pushed on your MFA plan at the start of a debate. It makes your showing in a poll the lead story. A… https://t.co/yjyIntTRMh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And Warren is unique so far among the non-Biden candidates, in that she is the only candidate who for a period rece… https://t.co/KXFHVo2jwS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

While we're talking about our head-to-head poll numbers, here's what we got in Iowa--where an admittedly fairly unr… https://t.co/TTccfToE2x — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Why expensive? A low turnout caucus in an already very expensive state, thanks to urbanicity and a large Latino pop… https://t.co/hak39IaAAZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Which is to say: as with many things in politics, the poll result elevated an underlying issue, but i do find it hard to believe that this central tension wouldn't have emerged as long as she was a co-frontrunner and fared worst in polls v. Trump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And a lot of the conditions for this to leave a mark were already met. In our Oct. Iowa poll, for instance, Warren'… https://t.co/jmpOX31glb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Quite possible, though Warren was already faltering in national polls and Iowa (where Buttigieg surge had begun) by… https://t.co/DvbW4LvVS7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NickRiccardi NV is one of the most representative states of the country! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Different theory: Nevada Democratic caucus gets ignored because it is too expensive to poll well =https://t.co/4VcphQ6CQ2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Actual result in Iowa, by how the precinct voted in '16: Sanders '16 precincts: Sanders 30, Warren 20, Buttigieg 19… https://t.co/xVQUTAqMSJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonathanchait @DouthatNYT it's an interesting case, though i'm not really clear on the mechanism for elimination,… https://t.co/xCnunW7NIz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonathanchait A realistic one? Maybe a Clinton 'comeback kid' style Biden second-place finish? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For Sanders, you can even dream about scenarios where he can get 50% of delegates on Super Tues. with even <30% of the vote with this many candidates. Not saying it's likely--it would be hard to maintain that kind of balance. But the number 15 starts to loom really large — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It also pushes us into the zone where the delegate math gets really sensitive to the 15 percent threshold for earni… https://t.co/PFnmMdWYkB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A Klobusurge, if confirmed in the results tomorrow night, would raise the possibility of something of like a dream… https://t.co/oi4CSJo62D — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I have a hunch this is going to be one of those things where the closer you look, the more things fall apart https://t.co/NiIszkLDZV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

No calls in the Iowa race so far, afaik, and I suspect that won't change for quite a while — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This isn't going to satisfy anyone. In the end, there is not going to be a definitive account of the result of this… https://t.co/yrWPPZsvb4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We'll have to see exactly where this comes from, of course. A cursory look at the IDP spreadsheet indicates that th… https://t.co/MT0wt0zf2z — PolitiTweet.org