Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@out_of_gangheri it does not mean that, though it is possible that's true for other reasons — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A great, clear, damning round up of the errors in the Iowa caucus results https://t.co/vie6uQmdNc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And a modest correction--they use county delegates not SDEs in NV. This is substantively identical to SDEs in Iowa… https://t.co/zLixoIt8BX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

All this taken together, I think you'd expect *someone* other than Sanders to work their way over 15. But it's fair… https://t.co/sw0tMBXTCV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, the second-alignment to SDE conversion could then get you back over 15% if you excel in low turnout precincts.… https://t.co/izY1Eggn0J — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Many of you are missing the point. If your aggregate tally on first alignment, statewide, is much less than 15 perc… https://t.co/6761yGcC5k — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And yes, there's realignment. But if you're not over 15% on first alignment, second alignment doesn't necessarily grow your SDE count much — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not hard to imagine Sanders being the only candidate getting 15% and claiming a majority of the delegates (presumably someone would clear 15 in a CD or two) https://t.co/AOfqYq1wwH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(IA, for reference, was 2/3 and NH was 2/11) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's really too bad this poll wound up being from 1/31 to 2/9. If polling is just a "snapshot," as they say, then… https://t.co/D9M4GibDnm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Reuters: Russia hints at Belarus joining it in a unified state in exchange for oil deal: Lukashenko https://t.co/ytjKcARGpt https://t.c… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'd be curious to see a betting market on whether Bloomberg's favored to lead this poll https://t.co/JSbOLKTvl6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @evanasmith: At 12:01 a.m. we’ll post brand new University of Texas/@texastribune poll numbers — on the Democratic presidential primary… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But as an immediate matter, Sanders' ability to kind of 'run away' with the Democratic race in the next month proba… https://t.co/Ic42xnJOlz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's fair, and it's a case where we're turning a very blurry line into a firm distinction. 47% is a lot different… https://t.co/D2yI07t65w — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And then there's Bloomberg, and it's time to start taking him seriously. It's not hard to imagine him crusing into… https://t.co/yWhiWh42vY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Or put differently: the momentum that Klob/Buttigieg have earned from NH/IA doesn't strike me as enough to get them… https://t.co/sCtdvshAa1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What I will say is that the calendar itself is generally good for the Sanders run away or Bloomberg rise kind of sc… https://t.co/oCU8ll3Ybp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Today, I think the next steps are quite a bit harder to predict. The dynamics are a mess. They might stay that way,… https://t.co/ZQTV4BDase — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To me, this opens a new phase of the race. The last phase, which began in early November, set in motion a fairly pr… https://t.co/Wlf3TBIGaS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In '16, a NH big win+IA tie did little for Sanders. This time, it amounts to a strategic victory. It leaves his opp… https://t.co/x5kXrH1O9s — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, I guess you can't go wrong. But it's a tough choice, and I didn't even mention CA! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NV is a natural choice. But it's preposterously expensive. SC is interesting, but it'll be covered anyway and it's… https://t.co/bd9uuXHLeV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

🤔 in all seriousness, if we did a poll right now i have no idea where i'd want it to be. a lot of interesting/tough… https://t.co/WaDontNBph — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JakeSherman: There are roughly 1,000 people here today for Bloomberg. Today is the first day of early voting in Tennessee, which is a S… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jon_m_rob: The wrong way to look at this. 288,672 (# of Dem. Pres. Primary votes) /614,274 (Reg DEM + Undeclared in 2008) = 47% turn… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten I like Hanover — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It seems to me that there's a pretty distinct chance--and I don't know exactly how likely--that Bloomberg climbs in… https://t.co/7WVANYWgUv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Hanover, NH is home to Dartmouth. I'm not referencing the whole state, to be clear. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, Elizabeth Warren taking fourth place in Hanover, N.H. is a true "if not here, then where?" kind of cas… https://t.co/rGSHIwMdb1 — PolitiTweet.org