Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To those upset about "pseudo-home state," her home-state is MA in a political context; she has not represented OK a… https://t.co/4KfuyOSBmp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not a huge fan of the state subsamples on national polls, but FWIW these states are to the left of the tipping poin… https://t.co/xN44ZsOTlt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Warren has been in single digits in every post-IA poll of every southern state on Super Tuesday, including her pseu… https://t.co/calMgjSZlF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

TX looms as the biggest question-mark, esp with California seeming like natural Bernie country. Both sides can imag… https://t.co/SsQ15OotUt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the non-Super Tuesday South, Biden has had some leads in SC and GA, which could augur well for AL, while Bloombe… https://t.co/cFXoA5on2g — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

AFAIK, Bloomberg has been tied or ahead in basically every southern state Super Tuesday poll conducted entirely pos… https://t.co/T5zSswWf2l — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NickRiccardi the preponderance of Sanders' edge among hispanic voters is bc of their demographics--young and worki… https://t.co/Z2JgmUBBrQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If we use NH instead, you get Sanders 29, Buttigieg 22.5, Klob 18, Biden 14, Warren 7. You lose a bit of power in N… https://t.co/hKCIwXh8Xy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The growth of Sanders lead, from 3 to 15 percent, tells you that this is demographically fertile for him, compared… https://t.co/0P19sd4Yjo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Similarly, you'd expect Steyer to get a solid 1 pct or whatever based on what happened in Iowa. Obviously there's a whole different campaign here. The salient thing in this analysis is the *shift* from Iowa, as a function of demographics — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Buttigieg did pretty well everywhere in Iowa. He worked the state hard and Klob hadn't surged yet either. Obviously… https://t.co/HdACTsgDvp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@thatsnotbryce Indeed, he didn’t — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If we model the result in NV using Iowa precinct data, you get... Sanders 32, Buttigieg 18, Biden 18, Warren 16, Klob 9. Now, lots of change since Iowa and Steyer is a factor. But directionally, look at what happens for each candidate: Sanders up, Biden up a bit, rest down. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Forget the polls in NV for a second, and let's talk about the demographics. Major distinguishing features of Nevada… https://t.co/JncmO30eVK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Add the LV-RV gap and the electoral college-pop vote gap and I'm not sure how much is left here https://t.co/Gm0lwc3wvU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Ad_Analytics: .@MikeBloomberg is the highest spending presidential candidate of all time. According to our data, he has spent $338.7M o… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My instinct is that the answer is 'stronger than a divided opposition, at least' and 'no.' But this is like trying to think 10 moves ahead in chess (i don't play chess so don't get pedantic with me, chess fans) and we'll see what the board looks like when we get there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ContentedIndie And, our analysis of the poll led us to simulate... that Buttigieg would outperform on SDE! https://t.co/CZTc4mb0cg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ContentedIndie our poll was off by ~3 pts, as it's a poll of voter preference on first alignment, not state delega… https://t.co/ijBhGfg1eE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A related, interesting question is whether a Biden comeback in SC would be good or bad for Sanders. It's hinges on… https://t.co/als60e4Q1C — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing that he does have going for him is that the primary electorate in a lot of these Southern states tends to… https://t.co/8KJzMN3vq4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At the same time, you've got to wonder about whether it's durable. He's at an acute spending disadvantage in the Su… https://t.co/8uxdTOlema — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Quinnipiac poll, for instance, had Biden at 27% among black voters. I'd guess he does better among southern bla… https://t.co/P2uFdb8NT3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's early and it'll be interesting to see what it looks like when we get a fuller set of data from some higher-qua… https://t.co/PIj9CZlV2z — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Sirrawb Well the chart above shows that in fact there was pretty good reason! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And since a few of you have wrongly suggested otherwise, the needle had a great NH. Despite working off off of way… https://t.co/sTgCBWQAcA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In all seriousness, we don’t have the stuff we need to do it well in NV, as we did in IA. Doing it w the county dat… https://t.co/0l2mKaWQ2H — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

FYI, the needle is skipping NV to go on to SC, where its poll numbers are better. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DKarol right, that can happen in NV too--and i think the initial post is quite explicit about it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DKarol i don't understand your point. there will undoubtedly be many, many precincts where candidates other than s… https://t.co/JStqBSCDLr — PolitiTweet.org