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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Sanders Hispanic strength from the entrance poll confirmed in the results by precinct (unlike '16, if anyone has a… https://t.co/ddFycMnvB2 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Tied with post-graduate degrees https://t.co/itrRaxjnj2 — PolitiTweet.org
Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
Elizabeth Warren's strongest constituency, according to the NV entrance poll: Democrats who regularly use Twitter (19%).
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @ShaneGoldmacher: MSNBC showing the empty Warren podium is a reminder that her team and (most) surrogates have been silent in last 6 hou… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Sanders wins Nevada, according to the AP https://t.co/vgbEFkJcR2 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
NYT precinct map is live Not much to see yet, with just 4% reporting, but hopefully that will change soon enough https://t.co/scHrwaTZoG — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @ForecasterEnten: Remember when there was that debate a few days ago and folks went after the candidate in second or third place. That w… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The NV entrance poll also offers our first look at black voters, who back Biden by a 34-28 margin over Sanders. He… https://t.co/OciJy7DnMO — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
One early trend on Twitter, at least, is that Warren seems to be faring better among Election Day voters. I'd be ca… https://t.co/Sa0zugo3R6 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The key factor in whether you gain on realignment, in the aggregate, is how often you breach 15%. At 35%, you almo… https://t.co/O08yQpIaBv — PolitiTweet.org
Adam D Seidel @AdamDSeidel
@Nate_Cohn Please provide justification for your last sentence given how reallocation so clearly broke against him in Iowa
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
For instance, even if two other candidates breach 15 percent statewide and in every district--not at all assured--I… https://t.co/xHMgDUDRyz — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
If the result was anything like this, the key is that Sanders could claim an outright majority of the vote (and the… https://t.co/mFijwOyRq4 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The early exits, which you can see here, show Sanders with 35% of the vote and ahead by around 20 percentage points… https://t.co/ZNC4843RXi — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Well, you know all the caveats about early entrance polls. But if they're anything in the ballpark, then not only… https://t.co/wOMOWCnQID — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Ten minutes to the caucus beginning in Nevada. We'll see whether or when we get some numbers. The NYT results page is live and waiting. https://t.co/GqwV9249lj — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
As I said Friday, there's no needle for Nevada. We weren't given the kind of test data we need to setup for a non-s… https://t.co/6OeL1RLRLb — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Happy Nevada caucus day and happy maybe-probably-hopefully Nevada caucus results day — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@cmMcConnaughy @jonmladd probably about right, given that it's registered voters — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Put it together, and NV might get to do something kind of interesting: winnow like an IA/NH; seem like the decisive… https://t.co/ULNq98oI2I — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@OneTrueShaun it's referring back to the prior tweet, meaning he's weaker among black voters than past Dem winners (ie: obama08/clinton16) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
In contrast, NV was fairly irrelevant in the Dem winnowing process in '08/16, when IA/NH not only clarified the top… https://t.co/WFtIidxxUZ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Another reason NV might matter more: IA/NH have largely passed on winnowing the field (and, if anything expanded it… https://t.co/C6Wy9YYGOz — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
This year, Sanders is weaker among black/affluent voters, and stronger among Hispanic voters. On paper, that makes… https://t.co/W4KZBOMjAO — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
As many of you know, Nevada is pretty representative, but it is less affluent than the US and has a smaller black p… https://t.co/xS9uSrkO72 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
One reason: this might be the first time that the Nevada Dem. caucus may have the role of showcasing the eventual w… https://t.co/ICKtaiKlnx — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Most cycles, I feel like the Nevada caucus kind of gets overlooked and doesn't feel as 'important' as the other ear… https://t.co/YY75zbtoR4 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Biden at 17 in California is one of the best number he's had in a while. With Bloomberg taking a hit in the debate,… https://t.co/CDtUsjXeJO — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@matt_blackwell i mean, it's not what i'd guess, but the last times/siena poll was r+2, marquette was r+2. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@ElectProject I think your prior should be that it's a different draw, given recent election results and other poll… https://t.co/YsjDSniaas — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
And folks, I'd really encourage you not to just drop the WI numbers and only look at the MI/PA numbers. Polls are noisy; take it together — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
This is a rare look at the state v. national picture from the same pollster with the same methods. The contrast is… https://t.co/S1r3y7PsZ2 — PolitiTweet.org
