Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Even then, I'm not sure Sanders would be the underdog. But we're at an important point in the race, where Sanders… https://t.co/R7u6Irc7oa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That new top rival would likely gain a lot of momentum, money, endorsements and so on. They'd have opportunities to… https://t.co/3PrGTfP2ZI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So while maybe it's not the likeliest scenario, I don't think it's hard to imagine how Sanders can come out of Supe… https://t.co/5LizD9R2OF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Then there's SC. Sanders could win, and if he does then I think that 71% starts going up quite a bit and you're loo… https://t.co/XU8Qx2qRAN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

IDK what's going to happen in the debate tonight. I do know that frontrunner scrutiny has clearly come on cable TV… https://t.co/SjoYVo7NAE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So with that context, there are still two opportunities--the debate tonight and SC--for someone to break out just e… https://t.co/mheNsCwtO6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And there are weaknesses for Sanders in TX, too. The Latino vote there is relatively conservative (he certainly did… https://t.co/sX9dmlA2O0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The place where Sanders could solve this issue is the big state of Texas. There are real strengths for him there, p… https://t.co/CEtV0623nu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You can imagine the early media coverage on election night if the early states are basically split (and it could be worse), and he seems to hold a fairly underwhelming edge, if one at all, in the early CA count. It won't be positive. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It wouldn't take much for Sanders to lose a majority of states on Super Tuesday. He's no better than ~tied in NC/VA… https://t.co/K8QaKQjVkR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Either way, Super Tuesday presents some real opportunities for a hypothetical rival. Over all, it's a pretty avera… https://t.co/KfX5QEXrnp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing that looms, for me, is that the state polling has not been great for Sanders. Here's every poll completed… https://t.co/FfMFbIT7iK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With Sanders up to 71% chance to win the most delegates in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, about the same as FiveThir… https://t.co/seg9J445AI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite Unfortunately my late October/Nov. articles aren't very specific about how poorly/well Trump was doi… https://t.co/mBBL78Kh7y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite I think it was both, but from a 'where w Trump failing to do what he needs' standpoint, it was in th… https://t.co/iQPTqHsXHS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite i do think there is something to that--a vague mid-2000s-era 'suburbs decide elections' sentiment th… https://t.co/dW1vLbSDZD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite Like, if the polls had been *right,* and they showed Trump narrowly leading PA with huge gains in ru… https://t.co/wCN4O4sNI4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite I know, but it is worth noting that people perceived (in some cases in error, as you show) apocalypt… https://t.co/PnV0hw7o2h — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite oh, that's a different issue. if people conflated phi+suburbs with suburbs, that's obviously wholly… https://t.co/qbM1cDlGwu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite i don't really understand your argument here; clinton would have easily won with a 28 point lead in… https://t.co/2ipiqe4SL3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@abaumania it's my recollection, though, that like a full third of ballots were sitll uncounted at the end of the night and that they tended to be pro Democratic / likely pro Bernie ones — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite been there! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Brendelbored exactly — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Colorado and Utah are slow too. If Sanders doesn't do great in Texas--and he might not, given how much more conservative the state is--then it could take days or weeks until his best margins become out West finally become clear https://t.co/A6bU2z7Cx0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's too bad we don't have better turnout data from NV in '16 (say, by precinct). The entrance polls show the white… https://t.co/n9DEyeMFan — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you had two self-funding billionaires helping to get Sanders to the nomination, you might get to collect some bi… https://t.co/DS0Ah4wQxx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

IIRC, the first results from Iowa brought us to 63% counted about 21 hours after the caucus began. IDK if Nevada is… https://t.co/WZlrufItQA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If, magically, the Democratic primary became a one-on-one race between Biden and Sanders tomorrow, who would be favored to win? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini Would rather check with individual level data here of course, but for what it's worth you wind up c… https://t.co/uci2bbzxib — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We actually have doubled the number of precincts counted since then; chart still quite clear https://t.co/099lxPJaQc — PolitiTweet.org