Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Networks give Biden the call in NC, again based on exit poll data. There's a more significant advance vote here, bu… https://t.co/li5jahmBQ4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The fragmentary results in Virginia won't do anything to dispel the notion that Biden's heading for a landslide there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @sangerkatz: All the confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases here: https://t.co/zlOpwtTpWa https://t.co/57JOdVwtuB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Also the Vermont exit poll appears to have Biden clearing viability there, which wouldn't exactly be worth much but… https://t.co/L3A0Qt6sZj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The weak Bloomberg result in the VA entrance poll, if confirmed and a broad pattern, is a big deal--especially if W… https://t.co/Yj2PBpRgpp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Also I should note these are exit polls, not entrance polls. I guess I untaught myself after these caucuses. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It should be noted that Virginia is a state where there's little advanced voting, so the full-Biden surge can be fe… https://t.co/ZvTIDcLbLh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Obviously headline number one is the commanding Biden lead in the Virginia, entrance poll, which shows Biden near 5… https://t.co/8kMtKPaMCf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Joe Biden wins Virginia at poll closing and Sanders wins Vermont, according to projections based on entrance polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@consvote the & isn't a typo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For ex: https://t.co/HvrZFvJFI4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Pro-tip: add &nate_mode=TRUE to your needle page URL, to allow you to zoom on the 'vote left' and 'vote remaining'… https://t.co/y483SjKSZa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The needles are live https://t.co/rIJbiIX9AW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At the same time, I'd also caution that the Democrats don't have to win the '16 election anymore. They need to win 2020, and the things that would have won the last election may no longer be possible or no longer sufficient — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Worth a read, even now, since so many electability debates are informed by interpretation of '16, and so many peopl… https://t.co/Q49j7hKKml — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you're bored waiting for the results, feel free to read this piece I wrote before Christmas in 2016 that no read… https://t.co/KVtMlyavWm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The NYT results pages are live Precinct maps in NC, VA and MN, assuming feeds materialize. Townships in ME, MA, VT.… https://t.co/I6SuW7RGWD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It should basically ignore the CA early vote https://t.co/scBb8xsyTt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It'll nudge the final estimates toward Bernie a bit, compared to the semi-official canvass "100%" of election day vote, but fairly cautiously given Biden's late gains https://t.co/bxYqyOEsBi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And this will certainly be a fun map to watch fill-in https://t.co/DYvm8IIGnq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you want it to be a precise, to the delegate estimate, you're out of luck and you'll have to wait a while. But i… https://t.co/2zTJCQafD6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You can get a sense of its ability in SC, where it comes pretty close to guessing the delegate result (within one o… https://t.co/hywsT6oGfW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing I want to point out about the needle that's really quite useful is our delegate estimate. It's not perfec… https://t.co/uLHlCzOCxK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In contrast, our post-SC estimates have Biden surging in a place like the DC suburbs. Before, Sanders was actually… https://t.co/TgvRMRcXwR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One obvious case is south Texas or the Central Valley. Our pre-SC estimate put Sanders ahead there, and so did othe… https://t.co/MvDO0YV38A — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I have bigger questions about what to expect in areas where SC offers no information or B/K had relatively little s… https://t.co/G3J4mCgRCL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In general, our approach to modeling these things is pretty well equipped to handle the South and affluent suburbs. The South is easy enough because of South Carolina. Affluent suburbs are easy because the behavior of Klob/Buttigieg votes, concentrated there, is easy to predict — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is obviously difficult to try and project the results by county for a fundamentally different race than we had a… https://t.co/fvLD0raxbj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There will be a squadron of needles tonight, and you won't be surprised to learn that it's been a lot of extra work… https://t.co/vAzCgqIOmC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AlxThomp: What did Warren put the most $$$ into on paid media for their closing pitch in Iowa and through February: Gordon Sondland.… — PolitiTweet.org