Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On a pedantic but still positive note, I also think it's much more deserving of the term 'forecast' than most empir… https://t.co/OueIs2mLzZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Shout out to the FiveThirtyEight primary model, which I think has done a really great job this year — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Frankly, a Super-Tues. based model of Michigan, rightly or wrongly, would say it'll be a Biden blowout. Doesn't mea… https://t.co/Tm2HfwtQO8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Ceadda it shows that his strength is now concentrated more among latino voters, making texas a better state for hi… https://t.co/Yi2CVaBWBv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And many states with a large Latino population from here also have large black populations, closed primaries, or a… https://t.co/ooX3e7sWMT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And unlike '16, the map might get worse for Bernie rather than better, now that his strength is so concentrated amo… https://t.co/vcz1JAMezX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now that I'm awake, maybe one simple way to think about it is like this: The early vote saved Sanders from a Clint… https://t.co/A9clyTPnrL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Sanders avoided a knockout blow, but the results were good enough for Biden that Sanders now needs a decisive turn… https://t.co/or7zItEEFy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And where voters could not re-register or otherwise vote if they were initially not a Democrat, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Was there any closed primary today, where no voters other than registered Democrats could participate? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: Here's a stat for you... Joe Biden won the late deciders (last few days)... in Vermont. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's been noted that turnout hasn't been up very much in Sanders '16 areas--and even down--so here's a provocative… https://t.co/ihkr3TY4E6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Joe Biden wins the state of Texas, according to our projections https://t.co/zgepXqF5WI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's definitely messing with us; our estimates don't lean too heavily on the 'precinct reporting' figure for estima… https://t.co/gGdCAQrIVv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think that the two errors--the 99% counted in Dallas; the Brownsville Biden+15k--largely cancel out? But there ar… https://t.co/FaZesIiB42 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And now one place where we're getting data that's too good for Biden is in Brownsville, where the count has Biden+1… https://t.co/yKR6BztklD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One place where I think our estimates may be deceived right now--to Sanders favor--is in Dallas, Tex. The needle cu… https://t.co/oYKaPwjrTC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Seems like our estimates are unmoved in TX, assuming this worked https://t.co/V1gsrPbAz0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Careful needle watchers will note that it has not updated since just before 11. After a lot of debugging, it seems… https://t.co/4scjxLHqZY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Remember, these early, early votes in CA--received more than 3 days before the election--are highly unrepresentativ… https://t.co/5c3xcvN1Yk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here again, the same basic dynamic: a demographically good vote for Sanders, the late deciders that should be good… https://t.co/rmzdih7xpy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Next comes the late mail ballots and then provisionals. This could be 35+ percent of the vote, and it'll still be o… https://t.co/zol5bMPG3Z — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This Election Day vote will take hours to count, and might not be in until tomorrow AM, when the counties will fina… https://t.co/01oA7639ET — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

After the early vote, you start getting the Election Day vote. This is demographically good for Bernie in Californi… https://t.co/yANNLLQ1gs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These are older voters, and therefore tough for Sanders. OTOH, they're early voters, and therefore tough for Biden.… https://t.co/Vha99Zuljo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're going to start getting early vote in California--here, ballots received well ahead of the election--and I thi… https://t.co/2Rh13SoezN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If we go to our delegate estimate right now, which gives Biden a 4 point edge in expected pledged delegates, we hav… https://t.co/G1xV6mEvVl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Polls are closed in California, and exit poll has him up comfortably--15 points or so https://t.co/YngkyKnoHE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I agree with this as well; indeed, our forecasts think there are another 189k votes in Dallas and 152k left in Tarr… https://t.co/kVWIiXDW0p — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Minnesota goes to *Biden* according to our projections. Previous, erroneous tweet deleted. My apologies. — PolitiTweet.org