Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's always frustrating to see my interactions feed with nonsense exit poll conspiracies, but it is sad at such a serious moment — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @alexburnsNYT: "Trump seemed totally oblivious to the danger of hardening his public image as the national-level equivalent of the mayor… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @xenocryptsite: With respect to everyone saying "the problem is Bernie Sanders might win his states by narrow margins while Joe Biden wi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, the whole starting premise here is that Biden is an overwhelming favorite. 538 has him at like 90% to win a majority. That strikes me as about right. But if Sanders is going to make a comeback, this seems like the basic way it would have to happen — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This might be a bit like Clinton in TX/OH '08: narrow wins that keep the Sanders campaign alive even though the del… https://t.co/WiZ8GcICSj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The risk to Sanders here is obvious: they've set a very, very low bar for Biden. But I don't think it's impossible… https://t.co/cAKYF0AZJo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Based on Twitter conduct, Team Sanders seems to be edging awfully close to staking the race on whether Biden can ho… https://t.co/NDhNjsyUHQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If they can avoid a humiliating result on 3/10 in MI/ND/WA/ID, then that next debate, pre-FL/IL/OH/AZ gives them th… https://t.co/PDq9l8jJ5l — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With that in mind, Team Sanders is making the only/correct play by going negative on Biden before Michigan. Attacki… https://t.co/wHSxG4kRjb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Sanders would still need to change the race to his favor. In general there are three ways: debates, results, negat… https://t.co/UMjEaXr3XY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If all of those three Super Tues mitigation factors were true, then maybe Biden's only favored by 7 in MI not 15; m… https://t.co/CLGVbmXFWc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A final way the Super. Tues results could be overstating Biden is if ME/MA/MN results aren't representative of the… https://t.co/fB19kCzSie — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another way the Super Tues. results could be a little overstating Biden is if the early-election day split is more… https://t.co/BX2j54AnJg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Do I think this is the true? I mean, not really. Could it be true? Well, I can't prove that it's not. What I do thi… https://t.co/2KbHgXCXvM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With that in mind, perhaps there were voters who were generally undecided on Biden v. Sanders matchup, but voted Bi… https://t.co/hFOEOSPzm2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

How could it be overstated? Well here's something to mull: the three biggest swings/errors that I can remember in D… https://t.co/gnqwrkcwO0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's very little post-SC polling, so our view of the race is mainly based on the hard results of Super Tues. Tho… https://t.co/uGNrrT5A8m — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the broadest sense, I think there would actually need to be two components of a Sanders comeback, not just the f… https://t.co/BKMovCK39s — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With Biden looking so close to wrapping this thing up, let's turn the board around for a moment and see if we can i… https://t.co/H3wEedPiBn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @RyanLizza: A very 2020 Saturday: #WhereIsJoe is trending and big bluecheck accounts in the Sanders twitterverse are spreading a conspir… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@TylerDinucci In Coal County, Biden and Hillary each received exactly 137 votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I've screen-shotted Coal County, OK because it led my piece on this phenomenon four years ago. Turnout is 40% lower… https://t.co/8dRF5YYhC4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One fun thing to examine is the vote of the trapped GOP voters who remain registered as Democrats. In '16, they usu… https://t.co/ahBVJ531yb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't believe Sanders would have hit viability in Mississippi if it had voted on Super Tues; we'll see if he can… https://t.co/gi1OATsrxa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In general, the ballots have seemed to get better for Biden every day, even controlling for the reporting county. T… https://t.co/hJwkgswFw3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's one county that says they have no mail ballots left, and updated since Weds., and that county showed an even larger swing toward Biden (though it's white and rural, which may deny Sanders his late-ballot upside) https://t.co/VJTbI3ybT3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The county where new ballots make up the largest share of the total count is Contra Costa County, in the Bay Area,… https://t.co/8eNkHUC4T8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Bernie's lead is down to 7.4% in California and it seems likely to shrink further. Ballots since Weds. are just Sanders+1.6, v. Sanders+8.4 in the initial count on Weds in those same counties — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @kwcollins: Sometimes I wonder if we would have more accurate views of electoral behavior if exit polls were banned — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: Biden's gaining in California... Sanders lead is down to 7.4 pts... There was a time when folks wondered whether Biden… — PolitiTweet.org