Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JosephSakran: This is an important piece in @nytimes by @Nate_Cohn. While Western Europe has 2X as many #coronavirus cases as U.S. 7X… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Western Europe (continental areas, pop 320m) might be a useful comparison to the US. They're a couple weeks ahead of the US on a similar (if slower) curve, with more testing and national lockdowns. Their death toll is 30k and still climbing fast. https://t.co/jQMVcVz7qO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @sangerkatz: Looks like stay-at-home orders have had big effects on behavior. https://t.co/eYeq67omOB https://t.co/CGvbA3K9zd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @sangerkatz: Last summer, the Trump administration let the contract lapse with the firm maintaining the ventilator stockpile. Now, venti… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @IChotiner: New Interview: I talked to the epidemiologist & economist Ramanan Laxminarayan about why India is at such grave risk from co… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Deleted a tweet that mischaracterized Trump's approval rating in the Marquette poll. It's actually at minus-1, not plus-5 (plus-5 was COVID only) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'd be curious to know whether Biden is airing many advertisements in Wisconsin right now due to the Democratic primary. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As far as general election polls six-months from an election go, Biden+3 in Wisconsin while Trump approval at +5 strikes me as a relatively big deal (again, in the scheme of horse-race polls six months out) https://t.co/LZWzwdX5Ua — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

the dream https://t.co/EHv6L5EWga — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@AbeUchitelle @FoxGGreen @nytimes @jshkatz @sangerkatz @KevinQ These are US Census Bureau definitions. I'm sorry you don't like them https://t.co/FxuODjSVBd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Varying rates of testing means that the data on confirmed cases is deeply imperfect. But to say it's useless, as many of my replies insist, might go a step too far, though obviously it depends on the sensitivity of the analysis https://t.co/8GWTzKu4TX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Should caution that this map doesn't render cases in non-metro or micropolitan areas (most places are part of one, but still) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I also like looking at this data by metro, since that corresponds with the natural extent of community spread, the availability of easily shared hospital resources, and has the upside of smoothing out some noisier data in small pop counties https://t.co/4breUYERZL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's an update of this map https://t.co/IoIH4jOWiv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Wondering about the modeled mortality rate for @ichotiner interviews at this point https://t.co/x2Nt0ik67p — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @IChotiner: New Interview: I spoke with law professor Richard Epstein, whose controversial article on coronavirus circulated in the Trum… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ByMikeBaker I’m giving you a very cold stare — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @DrTomFrieden: I'm STILL furious about this. We saw clearly & acted to increase number of ventilators available during a pandemic. We in… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not much else to do, so here's confirmed COVID cases per million by county. Obviously subject to varying testing, and small pop areas can be noisy. Still, ski towns and a few clusters in the inland South stand out a bit by this measure. https://t.co/C7SLLihjku — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @CeFaanKim: Multiple sources tell @ABC Pres. Trump turned to former Yankee Alex Rodriguez for advice this week. A source close to Rodrig… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I also wish we weren't limited by varying testing across geographies. Obviously that's a problem with everything right now. I don't agree that this irrelevant or not worth anyone's time. We often have to deal with imperfect information, but that doesn't make it useless — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That doesn't make it perfect. I wish we had growth in active cases, not cumulative cases. But we don't have that data in a comparable way across geographies. And at this early stage of the crisis, most cases remain active so it's not a big deal (though not hold over long run) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, I don't think this chart obviates the need for the simple chart of cases over time. And it is complicated, I get it. But I do think it directly offers much of the information that people are trying to glean for themselves out of cases over time. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This chart--growth over prevalence--fixes this common misinterpretation. On this chart, the metro that's highest at a given value of x is the one that's doing the worst job of "flattening the curve" at a comparable stage of its outbreak. So it's visually intuitive — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Similarly, you might assume that a country that appears 'lower' than other countries on that chart is doing fine. That's not necessarily true, either, if they're experiencing rapid growth after initial slow growth. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Think about the chart that everyone shows, of cases over time, starting at x cases. On that chart, your eyes are drawn to the country that's highest. You might assume they're worst. But that's not true, if they've since slowed the growth in cases. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

3) Why growth rate at a certain prevalence, rather than time? This might take more than one tweet. Time is the natural one, I get it. But with growth, the question is not *when* rapid growth happens, but whether growth is happening on a base of large N — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2) Why a chart of *growth rates*? Everyone's interested in 'bending the curve.' You can guess it by eyeballing it on a chat of cases. But a chart of rate of growth = just a direct measure of whether the curve is flat or steep — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

1) Why metropolitan areas, not states/countries? It's the natural extent of both rapid community spread and health resources. Saying NYC > Italy per capita isn't a great comparison; huge parts of Italy unaffected, NYC still better than Lombardy, which is what 'Italy' evokes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is the chart I've wanted to see: growth in COVID cases in a metro by prevalence, not time. If you'll indulge me, let me explain why https://t.co/DQmHlB9NFq https://t.co/mNflOrYhrV — PolitiTweet.org