Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix one thing that is not helping your effort to make a potentially plausible case--that i could have been more precise--is that you keep quoting things that i didn't say. i referred to the elections as a group, i've said the was a 'resistance surge' and said they weren't part of it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix if your serious interpretation of my article is that i believe that there's no increase in nonwhite turnout from '14 in any election, then I will say that it was not written precisely enough. that said, i really don't think that's a reasonable interpretation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix the major difference is the interpretive framework: mine is 'what changes get Dems from losing in 2016 to winning in 17/18/specials' not "which group increased turnout since '14" (literally everyone, including Trump voters) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix the major difference is the intepretative framework: 'what changes get Dems from losing in 2016 to winning in 17/18/specials' not "which group increased turnout since '14" (literally everyone, including Trump) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix your use of quotes here is interesting because it does not correspond to anything i actually said/wrote. my analysis is based on our polls, voter files, other polls, the census, more. but that's not the major difference, it doesn't really matter a ton what you look at — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix my analysis covers... the whole country. and, no, my contention is not that the turnout increase compared to 2014 is whites only. but i'm not just looking at pct. change in turnout since 2014, and that's where differences in both data and interpretation arise. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix this is one example, and one with a black democrat at the top of the ticket and the US House. In contrast, the black share of the electorate dropped in WI, MI, PA and NC between 2014/2016 and 2018 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix didn't say it was lower; said the black share of the electorate is lower, and that's the relevant factor for whether it increases democratic vote share in 2020. as a result, i would not characterize the change in black turnout as a surge, as it was up by less than the rest — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix frankly, this is an unscientific and closed minded attitude; it doesn't earn a follow or merit engagement. but i'll take your favorite election, va-gov '17, note that the black share of the electorate was lower, turnout in petersburg was down, and conclude at that — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @KevinQ: New today in NYT-world, humble charts and tables that, we hope, help you think about coronavirus outbreak in hundreds of metro… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud there are other interpretations of the data--and, frankly, just straight up a lot of other data--that make it more than clear enough, to my satisfaction, that nonwhite voters and esp black voters did not reliably surge in Trump era specials/generals like white democrats — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten 15 is a big number; are they really demographically all that different by age than the country? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: .⁦@ewarren⁩ has lost her oldest brother to the virus, ⁦@jessbidgood⁩ reports. Her brothers were a staple of her stump speec… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think the same thing about IL-4, for instance. It's fashionable to clap-back about how it's actually America's Best District, but maybe if you have to do that it's actually not — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yes the critiques are invalid, but democratic legitimacy is important. Maybe it's just because I see my Twitter interactions, but you shouldn't have to explain to people why something defies natural expectations if there's a reasonable alternative. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think just about everyone has realized by now that a race decided by a Dem win Arizona could easily involve a Trump lead on Election Night that's overtaken as younger, late ballots get counted (like McSally-Sinema). It wouldn't be pretty on Twitter, that's for sure — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It may be worth having a discussion about whether the Wisconsin approach is better than the long counts out West https://t.co/JmmUDQD9nw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: They shouldn’t have to pay for an @Eagles ticket again https://t.co/8v5FdFSrIn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: Subtext of yuge @maggieNYT scoop on the dismissal of HHS official who pushed back on Dr. Trump's medicine wagon bit: public… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And while it's hard to make a solid comparison over time at the state level, I would say that you might expect Trump's problem with seniors to be more acute in Michigan if coronavirus is a factor — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In both states, Trump's approval rating is healthier: minus-4, and it sure seems to me that Biden's expanded advantage is mainly coming out of older voters (for ex. in Mich, Biden's margin is 10 points wider than Trump's net disapproval among Boomers) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden holds 8 point leads in new Fox News polls in Michigan and Pennsylvania He leads among Baby Boomers in Michigan by 18 points https://t.co/aVaxwAmEZN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: SCOOP - Dr. Rick Bright says in statement he was pushed out of BARDA for a narrower, more limited role at NIH for wanting t… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AramRoston: He ran the coronavirus response for the Trump Administration. Before that he was a professional Labradoodle breeder for 6 y… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @yghitza i actually meant logit shift lol who knows where i would be without it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@yghitza @jon_m_rob yeah. i mean, it'd be interesting to see how much the logit shit is doing by precinct-level education, esp if that's a variable in the support model (as i'd guess) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@yghitza @jon_m_rob https://t.co/8mDnLvdYCe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@yghitza @jon_m_rob i'd worry that any kind of synthetic sample, like CCES, might draw their sample based on out of date parameters for ideology/party etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @sangerkatz: The big differences between coronavirus models show us how little we still know about this disease and what’s in store for… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Quinnipiac with Biden up 4 in Florida. Along with their recent national poll (Biden+8), you've got all the basic patterns: --Biden up 10 with seniors --Biden not hot with nonwhite vt --Wide education gap --So far, Trump stronger in tipping points than US https://t.co/KMQvpGUhNO — PolitiTweet.org