Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @zeynep: Another crucial study showing how dangerous indoor situations can be. An alarming 94 (out of 216) people on the same floor in a… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Would you rather see a poll in... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Would you rather see a poll in... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Fairly clear trendline here in these two sets of recent Hodas and Assocates (R) polls. Adds to growing evidence of Biden gains, along with the aggregate shift in recent swing state polls and the downward trend in Trump's approval. https://t.co/95q885jGDy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

OTOH, surprised by how many people seem satisfied by the NC polling they've gotten which consists of... like what, one or two polls unweighted by education ? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Based on the comments, I'm not sure how many people realize that the gap between GA and NC was just 1.4 points in '16 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Would you rather see a poll in ... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw @kwcollins @RoperCenter @PollsAndVotes definitely enhanced by it, though interestingly a few of the polls on Roper are withholding the horserace questions — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @tripgabriel: A coherent question about what the gov’t would do to take advantage of a summer ebb in the virus gets a nonsensical answer… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @joshtpm: After hearing presentation President Trump suggests irradiating people's bodies with UV light or injecting them with bleach or… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @oblivionrecurs @AstorAaron @tbonier @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix it's on the north carolina voter file — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @oblivionrecurs @tbonier @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix that's not the same thing; we care about the black share of the midwestern population, not the midwestern share of the black population — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @oblivionrecurs @tbonier @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix actually, the black share of adult citizens has been increasing in the midwest, particularly with respect to the higher turnout White population https://t.co/jgr0jmTp8i — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Pro-tip: if you click a city on a table, you can scroll back up to the chart and it'll display the trend there over time — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

COVID tracking by metro. Really useful, IMO. https://t.co/jW4tLv4YMQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Over the prior three months, Biden's averaged a 2 point lead in PA. Given the trend in Trump approval, got to wonder a bit what the next wave of national polls might be looking like https://t.co/Dv3eCOX9qc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: I've seen four polls from PA in last 24 hours: Biden +6 (Ipsos), +6 (Susquehanna), +7 (PPP), +8 (Fox News). Three from… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@oblivionrecurs @tbonier @RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix yeah. dems should be pretty thrilled if they can match the '16 black share of the electorate in WI, imo. forget '12 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin @tbonier @RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix tom can speak for himself, but these pretty clearly seem like aggregated categorical variables, and that would tend to overclassify people in larger groups (like the largest group, white working class) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix nice product! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @tbonier: @Nate_Cohn @RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix We've run all of these numbers, feel free to use our public facing si… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix in all seriousness, go look at the mi/wi/nc/pa voter file right now and look at the black share of the electorate in 18 v 14/16. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix in all seriousness, go look at the mi/wi/nc/pa voter file right now and look at the black share of the electorate v 14/16. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix sorry doesn't exist https://t.co/WSt7ziKgsy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@TheSpecialWorm @RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix https://t.co/BOGdPMJsKU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix as a result, the black share of the electorate was down compared to *14* in many critical states. if you think this counts as a turnout surge, because raw numbers are up over a historically low turnout election, that's ok. but i don't, and that's the interpretive difference — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix taken together, i don't think that nonwhite voters have been part of the 'resistance surge.' instead, frankly, their turnout behaves more like GOP turnout over the period, and often worse (GA6 special, to take a high profile example) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix taken together, i don't think that nonwhite voters have been part of the 'resistance surge.' instead, frankly, their turnout looks like more like GOP turnout over the period. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix there have been some elections when democrats got spectacular nonwhite turnout, like AL-SEN, GA-Gov. there have been elections where they got good by historic standards turnout, like TX/CA latinos, but not driving their gains v '16. And there are elections where it's horrible. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix you keep inserting the word "all." if that's your interpretation, fine. but i don't think that's a reasonable interpretation and it's not what i wrote — PolitiTweet.org