Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ashmcgregor I mean, in a 'do no harm' framework at a time you're up 10, no favorability rating among Democrats can make up for being underwater with persuadables — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One name popping up in the replies is Susan Rice. She's qualified. The lack of electoral experience is a question-mark and, for that reason, I think there'd be hesitation there. But it's interesting and could certainly figure into the not-Kamala discussion — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And while, not surprisingly, I can see that many people upset about this, I'll point to the poll we did back and November as the evidence here. Yes, her overall favorability rating was fine. It was just as good as Biden's. But she was -20 among persuadable voters and it cost her — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@skoczela @VTpollster @PollsterPatrick tbh i can't figure out how to register and i have a presentation uploaded! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The only one who is probably worth independent analysis is Warren. I know this will disappoint many of you, but she probably violates the 'don't lose the election/do no harm condition.' She's unpopular among too many of the persuadable-type voters who Biden is winning right now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, that's as far as I'll take the decision tree. You could go further, but you lose logical-decision points once you get to the wide realm of 'non-black women without distinguishing traits.' You'd have to feel really really great about the pick to do it. Maybe they will — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Obviously, choosing 'less distinguishing, non-black woman' is going to be tough. Warren, perhaps the likeliest candidate, probably violates the 'don't lose the election' condition. I know that will disappoint many of you, but I think it's hard to avoid that conclusion — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Panama was US territory at time of birth, fwiw, so there is a distinction there. But again, I don't think it's a disqualifying issue--especially for someone who serves in the military https://t.co/fmTgGI5q7B — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It would spark a debate about eligibility for the president: she's born in Thailand (American father, citizen at birth). Most think that counts as a natural born citizen, but yeah there'd be a debate about it. I don't think it would be a huge deterrent, but it's there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Tammy Duckworth is an Army veteran who suffered severe injuries in Iraq. She's fully qualified. She's the first woman to have a child in the Senate. She's Thai-American. That's a story on its own, but these distinguishing and feel-good traits make it easier to accept why it's her — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Tammy Baldwin is from WI, she's progressive (supports MFA), she's qualified, and the first lesbian Senator. The risk of losing her seat is arguably disqualifying. But that aside, she has the distinguishing traits that make it easier to accept why the pick when her way — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think there are two clear options that could plausibly be considered great and who have a rationale that might make sense of the pick. They may have their own downsides, but I think they're the next tier of consideration. Both have the name Tammy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Maggie Hassan, to choose a random ex., could very well be considered 'great' by Team Biden. But what's the explanation for why she's soooo good that you had to choose her, in the face of people disappointed you didn't choose someone else? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not only do they have to be good, but there needs to be a rationale--some kind of implicit explanation that helps disappointed folks feel ok about the fact that they were tossed over. Or put differently: the pick needs a case besides 'acceptable.' Tim Kaine would be tough. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Even so, choosing a nonblack woman would undoubtedly come with the risk of disappointing major constituencies in the Democratic Party. And here again, I do think this raises the burden on how good they have to be. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One major reason they could wind up going down this road is if they conclude that they just don't want to wade into the police reform debate with the options at hand. Harris and Demings force you into it, and perhaps on grounds that you don't want to stand on — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, here again, it is totally possible that they manage to choose on a non-Harris black woman, which I think might require them to feel *great* about the pick. It is also possible that they do get fully comfortable, and we can at least game that possibility out as well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here again, I won't weigh in on whether they feel good, great, amazing about Demings, etc. They very well might, just like they might feel good/great about Harris. Or not! The really tough call would be 'what if you they feel (merely) good about Demings.' Do they hesitate? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Or put differently, if you feel 'good' about Harris, then she's the pick. But you maybe you need to feel 'great' about Demings or Abrams. And maybe you'd have to believe Bottoms is a generational leader. There are real risks in choosing people without natl experience, see Palin — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway there's a spectrum of qualification here. Demings is awfully close to a typical pick, even if she hasn't held statewide office. Bottoms would be highly unusual. To my mind, the farther you are from 'Senator/Governor' the higher the burden is on how good you feel about it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The goal is to avoid picking Sarah Palin https://t.co/InkL7ytTEU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If it's not Harris, then the campaign has basically two choices: choose a black woman who is less qualified than the typical candidate for vice president, or choose a nonblack candidate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If they're good, comfortable and happy with Harris, I'd guess she's the pick (or they have someone else they love, which is a fine problem) and that's the end of the this thread. But it's also possible that the answer is no. So let's game it out if that's the answer — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I can say is that I am struck that there's been this expansion in the number of black women under consideration, including some real stretches. Is it due diligence, or does it mean that they're sitting there wishing they had an alternative to Harris? The latter is imaginable — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now she might still be the obvious pick anyway! But I think it would be understandable if many people on Team Biden had pause about this pick. I just can't say either way. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I won't dwell on why Kamala is obvious. But she is complicated: she doesn't have a lot of credibility for many Democratic voters on the issue that's most salient right now, and the very issue that at first would seem to make her the obvious choice. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My sincere answer is 'I don't know.' From afar, my sense is 'they might not know either,' and the main reason for that is that Kamala Harris is at once a fairly obvious choice and a somewhat complicated one in this particular moment — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The question, then, is: 'is there a black woman vice who they really like, fits the moment, and satisfies the other conditions mentioned above: plausible president, winning the election, good governing partner, etc.' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And as such, I don't think it's assured that this current calculation lasts to 8/15, or whenever the pick lands. But for now, I'd sure guess that if there's a black female vice presidential candidate who they really like, that pick would have the edge — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Given that the news environment plays such a role in that calculation, I'd guess they would delay as long as possible before making the choice. The merits and dismerits of individual candidates--prosecutor, for ex--even play differently in different news environments — PolitiTweet.org