Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini @SpecialPuppy1 @davidshor @bread_fixer @RyanDEnos @mattyglesias i can't see the person you're replying to, but idk if that means what you think it does — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @RyanDEnos @mattyglesias idk whether exhausted ballots were decisive--palin was only winning second choices 64/36, after all, and that wouldn't cut it over 11k exhausted ballots. needed more like 3-to-1. i think the theory is stronger with a post-primary consolidation angle as well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @RyanDEnos @mattyglesias idk whether exhausted ballots were--palin was only winning second choices 64/36, after all, and that wouldn't cut it over 11k exhausted ballots. needed more like 3-to-1. i think the theory is stronger with a post-primary consolidation angle as well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @RyanDEnos @mattyglesias yeah, it's perfectly reasonable (i've written a lot about ballot exhaustion, to the consternation of RCV advocates) -- and i think the post-primary consolidation case is reasonable, as well. but it is the complicated way to look at it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos @mattyglesias isn't the case that RCV led to a different outcome the one that requires extra layers of thinking, like a case about ballot exhaustion or a lost opportunity to build intra-party unity post-primary? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject the 'any primary' sample is 7% 18-29, 36% 65+. it's D+1, 44-43, by our measure (registration or primary vote history in states without reg). non-primary sample are 26% 18-29, 15% 65+, D+8 by our measure, D21-R13 (they're basically all independent in the primary vote states ofc) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject yeah, it's a weird measure. then again, primary voters are old — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject it's any primary since '10 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'll be interested to update this after adding data from the 2022 primaries, as this may just reflect strong Dem primary vote in '18/20 (which is probably best understood as reflecting Trump-era enthusiasm/recent pres primary). Still, it's intriguing enough to merit more later — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One question that's popped up recently: do the Dems now have an advantage among high turnout voters? Here's one quick, imperfect cut from our last Times/Siena poll: Dems led 46 to 41 among those who had voted in a recent primary. GOP led 39 to 36 percent among the rest — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes https://t.co/N4x5seE3QH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes one catch on carter is that his approval rating went up a lot in late sept/oct after camp david accords — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But it's quite clear that the Dems are running well among highly engaged voters -- whether it's poll takers or special election voters - esp in the white north. And if it lasts, that'll get them pretty far in a midterm, even if they will have some additional ground to cover — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But it's quite clear that the Democrats very strong among highly engaged voters -- whether it's poll takers or special election voters -- esp in the white north. And if it lasts, that'll get them pretty far in a midterm -- even if they will have some additional ground to cover — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As far as November is concerned, it's hard to weigh all of these kind of imperfect indicators against the long history of out-party strength in midterms. And yes, I think there are very good reasons to doubt some of these polls, especially in the Midwest. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Democrats have overtaken Republicans on the generic ballot. They've been outperforming in several straight congressional races. The Washington primary results were decent. The Senate polls look almost-too-good for them. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I thought Democrats had a very good chance to win NY-19, so I'm not going to frame this as some massive upset. But the reason it's not a massive upset is because the signs of Democratic strength just aren't rare anymore. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dgiff52 @JamesSurowiecki i fully endorse the bureau--for twin peaks and non-twin peaks fans alike. crash landing on to you was a joke... but i did love it lol — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JamesSurowiecki the bureau, twin peaks: the return, crash landing on to you — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile @jon_m_rob no; only talking about 2020. republicans were slightly likelier than democrats to respond to our july survey — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile @jon_m_rob (and our survey bias is very highly correlated with white share of electorate) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile @jon_m_rob well, yes and no. it is highly correlated, but it's mainly just a function of the white share of the electorate (ie: all the D bias in response rates by party is among whites, and it exists in all states) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob one twist on your story, though, is that it is that these biases may have evolved over the cycle as the issue became politicized. we did a may 2020 test with fantastic response rates and no difference in response rates by party (which was no longer true in the fall) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob i suppose that would count as good news, if true — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SteveKornacki: New NBC News poll (registered voters) Biden - Job performance Approve 42% Disapprove 55% ==>May (previous NBC poll):… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

tbt https://t.co/Z3n7ddhG1Q — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @PropterMalone would be curious to know how much he did in those districts though — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite i think that's the point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/9mFChTyIPN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @SeanTrende i drove across the MO-IA border just bc there's often a modest demographic/electoral discontinuity there. i hit a deer like 10 mi before :( — PolitiTweet.org