Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Quinnipiac with some extremely strong numbers for Democrats: Maine: Gideon+12, Biden+21 ME-02: Biden+9 SC: Tie, Trump+6 Kentucky: McConnell+12, Trump+20 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We'll let you know in tonight's update lol https://t.co/3PE1sBNkX3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In general we've been a bit more volatile than FiveThirtyEight, probably because we're a little less dependent on the trendline adjustment and more dependent on time sensitivity, and maybe because of some house effect differences. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RossRichendrfer yeah it's a disaster — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For those looking for a deeper dive on the averages, you can look here. They're more like FiveThirtyEight than anything else, though there are some differences https://t.co/egJYHiZBFu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The page has a nice little table to help offer a sense of the range of possibilities, by imagining the polls are off by about as much as they were over *the final three weeks* of the last two elections. That'll narrow, but for now it's a simple reminder of the uncertainty — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Philosophically, the page has a two tiered approach to covering the polls: --a pretty curated write-up, mainly focused on the polls we care about and trust --a broad polling average, including the polls that maybe we don't love — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Today, we're launching a site to track the polls between now and the election. We'll have: --An appx. daily writeup on the latest polls --Poll averages --A home for news on our own polling https://t.co/FuxTub58ar — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is, but I don't think we can pick and choose where we focus on LV v RV. Like, if you want to look at RVs, then the ABC/Post poll gets better but you just made the MULaw poll 3 points better for Biden and we're back where we started https://t.co/3kQCV9xQ9A — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini not pure, but it is the closest they've had yet and they can weight on sample-wide targets — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In '16, poll changes usually tracked the average. It'll be interesting to see whether that's true again, and other polls follow in time. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One of the few points of good news for Trump right now is the trendline on the USC tracking poll, which has narrowed to just Biden+7. It's a panel, so much of the change is due to voters shifting, not just changes in the composition of the sample. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SienaResearch: New @ManhattanInst / Siena Poll: 44 Percent of Six-Figure Earners in NYC Have Considered Relocating - https://t.co/ImGNG… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, the ABC/Post poll in MN is screaming hot for Biden, so I could argue that story's not so clear. As an aside, the ABC/Post poll has gone with a traditional RDD telephone approach and, for better or worse, that'll yield noisier state poll results at this sample size — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's not much in the way of good news for Trump here. I guess the pollsters with less bias in 18 state polling (MULaw, ABC/Post, NYT/Siena, YouGov) show something more like a 5/6 pt race in WI than those that leaned left in 18 (Fox, CNN/SSRS). But 5/6 isn't much to cheer about — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is very rare that we get such a clear and consistent look at a tipping point state from virtually all of our top pollsters. It all suggests that Biden holds a comfortable lead in WI and an even larger one in MN. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another very strong set of results for Biden in the Upper Midwest: +6 in WI and +16 in MN among LVs from ABC/Post https://t.co/DY2vImxdx9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: Trump is criticizing Biden, who isn't president, for not finding a way to implement a national mask mandate, on ABC Town Hal… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I could make a counterintuitive case that there's more value in getting six polls out of MN/WI, and really understanding what the polls say there, than getting a scattershot of polls that don't tell you enough about anywhere to be sure of anything https://t.co/mAfpInkBow — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes long winded thread, but: -'12 mean reversion (whether real or due to undecided voters) -stronger GOP base for Trump -poll error redux https://t.co/4BPco9tEiR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Compared to other surveys, Biden's doing quite well with the state's Hispanic voters. Basically every poll agrees that Biden's doing very well among white voters, and if Biden pieces together something like '16 among Hispanic voters, then suddenly the poll isn't very close — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another very good result for Biden from Monmouth in Florida https://t.co/gmxr7Lzd6c — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@B_M_Finnigan possible we don't get to it dk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@B_M_Finnigan last — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We'll see what ABC/Post says tomorrow, but right now the story in Wisconsin seems quite clear. And even the best poll result for Trump in Wisconsin (MULaw, Biden+4) still showed Biden up 7 with RVs, and had a particularly tough LV shift--which could easily be noise. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden up 10 in Wisconsin and 3 in NC, per CNN/SSRS; a very strong set of results for Biden. (deleted prior tweet which said MN, not WI) https://t.co/tnBWsbL4Xt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden by 3 in NC and 10 in MN, per CNN/SSRS. Nothing for Biden to complain about here. https://t.co/tnBWsbL4Xt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Exciting, and it'll be interesting to see the method here. Post polls in VA/VA10 have taken a lot of different (and good) approaches in recent years https://t.co/WPWEZudawi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@CTDemResists yeah they would need both NE2/ME2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @samstein: @Nate_Cohn Yea. It said ME2 — PolitiTweet.org