Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I know there are lots of newsletters nowadays but I do think that the newsletter format is especially well-suited to political/polling analysis. It's easier to offer provisional and uncertain takes when you don't have to fit the stuffy, authoritative prose of a news article — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Today we're launching a newsletter on elections, politics and polling as we head into the heart of the election season. I hope you'll sign up! https://t.co/UeNrQAO8h3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @SpecialPuppy1 the better explanation is that there aren't many good ideas for changes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not really any relationship between recent Trafalgar Senate polls and the last presidential result https://t.co/2iemcNB1AF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 this tweet's predictive plus-minus for reply-favorite ratio is about +0.7, giving it about a C+ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jshkatz: spike in people choosing QUEEN as their first guess in this morning's Wordle https://t.co/6i1lFcd2AY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

would read this analysis too https://t.co/kUIzjqqzML — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Would definitely read an account-level analysis of twitter hate about the Finnish PM party video v. Shor party article — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Needless to say, I'm really excited to see where this takes us. There have been a lot of points over the last couple of years where we haven't been able to do things we've done before -- let alone go farther. We're in a much stronger position moving forward — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Finally, we've added @cabrerosic to help work on our statistical models -- including the model that underlies a certain needle. Irineo joined us from RAND, he's already knee deep in the code, and I'd guess he'll be contributing to a lot more than the needle over the longer run — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On the model side, @ilana_marcus has joined us from COVID-tracking to join us as a developer working on acquiring the data that powers our election night anlaysis. Already, Ilana's scraped live precinct-level election results for basically every primary state so far this year — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're also thrilled to have @RuthIgielnik, who many of you may already be familiar with from a decade of great work at Pew Research on likely voter models, the validated electorate, voter files and analysis of American politics — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So we've reorganized: we now have a formal Elections Analytics unit led on an interim basis by @williampd, who has been absolutely fantastic. He's contributing in ways never imagined, like figuring out if we could say "woke" in a poll in Spanish on the ground in Buenos Aires — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Believe it or not, we've never had full-time staff dedicated to our already extensive elections analytics operation. We managed to do hundreds of polls and dozens of needles anyway, and we're very proud of it, but the prior setup was neither desirable nor sustainable — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's been exciting time over here in NYT elections land, where we've been getting our house back in order heading into the heart of the election season https://t.co/p5aozQUqd3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MountRainierNPS: Mount Rainier is NOT erupting. We have looked at the cloud that has caused concern from multiple webcams and have dete… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @KClarkWx: Mt. Rainier appears to be venting. 🗻 @komonews currently has a call in with @MountRainierNPS to confirm. Stay tuned. #wawx #k… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JakeMGrumbach: The nationalization of American politics (2022) photo by Paul Pierson https://t.co/3TSevfcJwx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@darth https://t.co/kjbQ8GX5Y2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @cwarshaw: Our paper "Moderates" is out in FirstView in the @apsrjournal. We show that many Americans hold genuinely moderate policy pos… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

and in general, the difference between the material sized from boxes in trump's office v. the storage room is extremely striking when presented visually — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

i didn't realize until this that all of the much-discussed empty folders were in trump's office — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

this is fantastic, from @charlie_smart_ and @larrybuch https://t.co/dls1PTrj27 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

i didn't realize until seeing this that all the empty folders were from trump's office — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

this is fantastic, by the great @larrybuch https://t.co/dls1PTrj27 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos @davidshor @wiscottcurtis @mattyglesias in general, i think the idea that people ought to rank the candidates who they want their preferred candidate to defeat is... very challenging for people to grasp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos @davidshor @wiscottcurtis @mattyglesias if his favored, competitive candidate had been eliminated (i forget who it was tbh but i assume it was garcia; i mainly remember the mcguire thing), his ballot would have been exhausted simply bc he didn't understand the strategy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos @davidshor @wiscottcurtis @mattyglesias he ranked his favorite, competitive candidate first and then used the remaining ranks as a symbolic show of support to the less serious competitive who he agreed with (he ranked his true first choice, the financier Raymond McGuire, in the second slot) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos @davidshor @wiscottcurtis @mattyglesias he ranked his favorite, competitive candidate first and then using the remaining ranks as a symbolic show of support to less serious candidates who agreed with (he ranked his true first choice, the financier Raymond McGuire, in the second slot) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos @davidshor @wiscottcurtis @mattyglesias i talked to a friend in finance about a week or two ahead of the NY primary last year and asked him how he was thinking about his rankings. he clearly did not understand how to use the system, even though he was using multiple ranks in a way that would seem to suggest he did — PolitiTweet.org