Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Nice graphic on the historic context here https://t.co/ofrRBCb9ZR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Marquette Law national poll (9/8-15): --Biden voters likelier to say the Supreme Court is very important to their vote (that's a reversal from '16) --Voters *did* say hearings should be held if a vacancy occurs during 2020, as they did in 2016 https://t.co/9UhwthFi1p — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In all three states, Biden's lead on the issue was a few points larger than his overall lead. The same can be said for a Fox national poll released earlier this month, which showed Biden up 7 on the issue and 5 pts against Trump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Voters who said they weren’t “almost certain” or “very likely” to vote said they thought Biden would be better by an even larger 52-23 margin. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Across the three states, persuadable voters--those who either weren’t backing a major-party candidate or who said they could still change their mind--said they thought Biden would be better at choosing the next justice by an 18-point margin, 49 percent to 31 percent — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NYT/Siena polls of Arizona, Maine and North Carolina released on Friday showed that Biden led on which candidate voters trusted more to nominate the next Supreme Court Justice: Arizona: Biden 53, Trump 43 NC: Biden 47, Trump 44 Maine: Biden 59, Trump 37 https://t.co/0hao3XSojQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer i'd say there's a 99.5% chance you're wrong, but this is the rare case where even that's too low — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @adamliptak: RBG has died of "complications of metastatic pancreas cancer,” Supreme Court says — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: News: The WH & Phrma nearly agreed to a $150B deal Then the WH came back w a bigger ask: they wanted cash cards mailed to se… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @HCTrudo: News: @JoeBiden sees Iowa in play. Former second lady Jill Biden will travel there with Doug Emhoff, @KamalaHarris' husband, o… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HapppyWarrior yeah? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Seems fairly reasonable, but having looked at all kinds of N=66 subsamples over the years I must emphasize that it is simply for fun and quite useless, even if it fit your prior. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Just for fun, in our N=66, MoE +/- 13.5 sample of St. Louis County: Biden 54, Trump 34 https://t.co/IqatbGavPe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @brianneDMR: 🚨 It’s an Iowa Poll weekend! Set those alarms for 6 p.m. CT Saturday for new Iowa Senate numbers Check out this article fro… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @IChotiner: The other thing here is that if the polls are wrong and Trump wins, the industry is in for hell. If they are wrong by an equ… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: I believe deeply in widening the circle of data-driven elections folk, and love getting to know up-and-coming analysts. Bu… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This tweet replaces a previous, deleted tweet that said NBC/Marist not NPR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NPR/Marist* finds Biden+9/7, depending on whether you include minor party candidates. The poll isn't weighted by edu, but the important thing here is the trendline: Biden down a point among RVs since August, up since June. Consistent with a stable race. https://t.co/dDLacd5kIE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NBC/Marist with Biden+9 nationwide (7 w minor candidates named) Not weighted by education, but the important thing here is the trendline: Biden lead down a point from early August, up since June. Largely consistent with a stable race https://t.co/BTs09MGoV3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris i think that's a very good and mature move; i hope others appreciate it and respect you for it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris i'm not going to keep going on here. but when you use the word lie, you absolutely move off of the argument. a lie is an intentional attempt to deceive. my sincere, earnestly held view is that you should delete the tweet and apologize — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@joeyhbanks @gelliottmorris if he really believes that, he should defend it. otherwise, my sincere view is that he should delete the tweet — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@joeyhbanks @gelliottmorris no, a lie is a deliberately false statement, not just any falsehood — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris yet, i'm in the opposite spot: i'm 1000% unconcerned about the merits of your argument, because you impugned the motives of the person you're criticizing instead of engaging it on the merits — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris yet, i'm in the opposite spot: i'm wound up 1000% unconcerned about the merits of your argument, because you impugned the motives of the person you're criticizing instead of engaging it on the merits — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris i asked if you thought it was a lie, i know you think it's bad interpretation — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris do you think it's a lie at all? your tweet seems to suggest you agree that he's vote share trails his approval, even if you differ in interpretation — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris do you think it's a lie at all? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris the biggest lie of 2020? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

From a public polling standpoint, Arizona is a little bit more split than Wisconsin. There are still Arizona polls that keep Trump well in the hunt. But the calculation here is absolutely right: if all three away, the Biden path is clear enough https://t.co/YeqhQXQheC — PolitiTweet.org