Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Selzer: Biden and Trump tied in Iowa https://t.co/HNirgS04Zw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yeah, the conditions are in place for Warnock to get through at this point, even if it's a close call in the polls at the moment https://t.co/2PCD3MeuQG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

AJC poll: Presidential race tied in Georgia https://t.co/fxuREPkNSs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

is there a rule against airing your opponent's ad in the runoff? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

yeah we'll see how this goes https://t.co/YJsVqufVvy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: Yet as of June, Amy McGrath had raised $47 million to MJ Hegar's $6.5 million despite 1) TX having five times as many voter… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Like anyone, I find it a little hard to imagine Hegar actually winning this thing? But there's nothing about the polling that says that can't happen, and I think it would be a mistake to rule it out of the range of imaginable possibilities, even if it's actually hard to imagine — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Texas Senate race is really flying under the radar. A GOP incumbent in the mid-40s, with a Dem candidate who remains totally unknown, in a state that's as close as anywhere in the presidential race... https://t.co/aA1iOoRW5A — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@doug_rivers @jon_m_rob human is the trump voter! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende i agree, but i'm not sure it's '08 anymore. in this case, you could easily imagine black share of the electorate going up in the runoff, as it often does in LA, a better educated electorate, and who knows how folks will feel about loeffler — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This GBAO (D, possibly for Warnock) poll this morning has Warnock pushing into second in the GA senate special, and while we ought to wait for some nonpartisan confirmation I'll note that a Warnock-Loeffler runoff seems pretty dangerous for the GOP https://t.co/hRjeXizDcQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrynnTannehill you'd be wrong! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This changes if you actually list 'some other race' as an option in the question. If you do that, you'll 3x the share of respondents who don't choose a standard answer, and they'll take it as an opportunity to specify their national background instead — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In general, the majority of 'some other race' answers are Hispanic. Once you assign them as such, you've mainly got multi-racial people, real but unlisted options (alaskan native-- no, we're not polling AK, sorry to disappoint), and a couple of interviewer miscodes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Contrary to most of the replies: two of the three are Hispanic, and the group splits Biden 2, Trump 1 https://t.co/SmcfTlAJv9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@john_voorheis i'd recode 'american' to white, but 'human' and 'none' to a refusal — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's interesting to look through the free response answers on the 'race' question when our respondents volunteer something other than a listed option. Answers on our current slate of polls include "human," "American citizen" and "none." — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Reading the paper a little more, it seems like it's probably weighted to the 2016 vote choice from an initial online ballot question, before the experiment, which would probably be fine. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Morning Consult rehashes their 2016 social desirability experience and finds no serious evidence of social desirability bias in the presidential ballot test, though weighting on self-reported 16 vote does seem like an issue for this particular experiment? https://t.co/bmWthNwKsV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Morning Consult has rehashed their 2016 shy Trump study and find serious evidence of social desirability bias, though weighting on self-reported 2016 past vote sure seems like an issue for this particular experiment? https://t.co/bmWthNwKsV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @IChotiner: New Interview: I talked to AEI’s Danielle Pletka about her controversial op-ed, her fears about Joe Biden, whether Trump rep… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is plausible on paper, but pbly not if the decisive Biden gains in Texas are coming from suburban whites. Maybe that's not what's going on here--maybe it's new reg.--but if it is, I don't see how Biden doesn't also get *enough* padding in northern burbs to survive there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the state was 2 pts farther left, and you could argue it with NC/FL, it'd be different. As it is, it's just too expensive for something that's still clearly to the right of your 330th E.C. vote https://t.co/ey8KLtSAKr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So if you're in the 'polls surely biased toward Biden bc 16/18' camp, I do think it's worth pausing at these Texas numbers and considering the extent that they complicate your theory of the case. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With Texas, we have a state where basically every poll for the last year shows a total tossup, where there's no history of systematic polling error during the Trump era, and where it is awfully hard to believe that the polls could be right without Biden being a heavy fav — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, there's no reason to assume that the distribution of poll error and bias will be the same in 2020 as it was in 2016/2018. But that assumption is *usually* one of the better reasons to think Trump might be in better shape than polls suggest. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are plenty of places where the polls have been 'wrong' in recent cycles. One place where they have not been wrong, in either 2016 or 2018, is Texas. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kabir_here @CBSNews @YouGov are cbs/yougov polls weighted on party ID? i assumed so, but i'm surprised enough by some of the party id results of late that i'm thinking not? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @kabir_here: A couple of tight races in new @CBSNews/@YouGov polling through Friday Florida Biden 48% Trump 46% MOE ±3.7 Texas Trump 4… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mmurraypolitics no LV screen? — PolitiTweet.org