Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One reason I take the shift seriously: there are plenty of signs of the GOP faring relatively well in voter registration. That could be a reflection of low Democratic reg. due to the pandemic, but it may also reflect a bit of a shift in party ID — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Republicans have done very well in party identification in NYT/Siena polls this month--I believe Democrats only led in NV/MN. Biden nonetheless fared well by excelling among independent voters. I'm curious whether other firms will show something similar nationwide. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'd expect a lot of live interview telephone polls over the next few days ahead of the debate (and post-RBG), and one thing I'm interested to see is whether anyone else shows evidence of a bit of shift in party identification toward the Republicans — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytpolitics: Breaking News: President Trump has selected Judge Amy Coney Barrett, a conservative favorite, to succeed Justice Ruth Bade… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MediumBuying: The Biden campaign is placing its first TV ad spending in the Bangor, ME DMA. Start is 9/29 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @bluestein: Just in: Obama backs Warnock’s bid for U.S. Senate seat in Georgia #gapol #gasen https://t.co/OZah5D5uXY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@B_M_Finnigan 💤💤💤💤💤💤💤 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ashleymoirDC: 🚨 FOX NEWS POLLS 🚨 NV: Biden 52%, Trump 41% OH: Biden 50%, Trump 45% PA: Biden 51%, Trump 44% All among likely voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think the Data Orbital poll is a good one btw https://t.co/r9wX90qL2F — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have pretty similar toplines in Texas, but the underlying data is quite different--mirroring a pattern we've seen in Quinnipaic polls throughout the year. They have Biden faring way better among white voters than we do, and way worse among Hispanics. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden+1 in Ohio, per Quinnipiac. Trump+5 in Texas https://t.co/ToDt2fCDO8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SienaResearch: The New York Times / Siena College Battleground Polls: In each of three recently polled states (Georgia, Iowa, Texas) v… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Monmouth is also interesting in showing a reverse LV-RV gap, with Trump faring far better with RVs than LVs. We had no LV-RV gap there, though that does mean the difference in the underlying sample between Monmouth and NYT/Siena is quite a bit larger than at first glance — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @QuinnipiacPoll: Tim Malloy & Mary Snow to discuss results of #Ohio and #Texas polls of likely voters regarding: 2020 presidential elect… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Taking Monmouth, NYT/Siena and Selzer together, everyone has Greenfield ahead 2-3 points, and the presidential race averages out to a tie — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Monmouth has Trump+3 in Iowa and Greenfield+3 in their 'high turnout' LV model; Greenfield+1 with low turnout LV https://t.co/oPjeTR6TYd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We were in the field from Weds-Tues, with Ginsburg's death right in the middle. No candidate fared meaningfully better in interviews after her death on Friday, controlling for characteristics used in weighting. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

No signs of a shift in NYT/Siena polls after the death of Justice Ginsburg https://t.co/y8S7XZJFli — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yes, but northern white evangelicals aren't the same as southern ones, either. Trump only leads among white evangelicals in Iowa by a 58-28 margin. He leads 83-10 among white evangelicals in TX/GA (and 89-6 among white, rural evangelicals) https://t.co/dYiTpOvkdV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I didn't label that clearly btw--but that chart is only among white voters, hence the Trump lead in the metro South — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@james_acton32 nope — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here again, Ohio is an interesting case. It does have plenty of suburbs and you could call them northern, but they are *red* suburbs, unlike PHI, for ex., and that could be the real factor underpinning whether Biden has opportunities for a big breakthrough — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

PA is the rare state with some northern metros but kinda southern rural. Bad combo for Biden. A state like AZ--very little rural vote, Sun Belt metro--could be great for Biden, as our poll found. No surprise to see Biden surges in rural north, like our MT poll — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Looking across all of our polling, you can see an interesting pattern of Dem suburban v. rural gains by region. I think it makes a lot of sense of the shifts we see https://t.co/P91Zncb7FJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Expanding this out a bit to all of our polls that clearly fall in one group or the other, assuming I did this right https://t.co/Cm6Y3p7DHy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Also interesting to compare this to self-reported 2016 vote among validated '16 voters: Iowa: Trump 50, Clinton 36 Texas: Trump 83, Clinton 12 Georgia: Trump 85, Clinton 13 https://t.co/ixQSdFpRfm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ohio is an interesting mix here: the northwestern part of the state is more reminiscent of the Upper Midwest; the eastern/southern part of the state is more Appalachian. It was pretty stark in the GOP '16 primary, in fact https://t.co/hu3OqeGRaT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This pattern has shown up in a number of recent primaries, including the GOP '16 primary. Trump swept the Southern/Appalachian white vote, including PA, while he struggled a bit in the more Midwestern/northern states — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With Biden lagging a bit in PA compared to other Obama-Trump states in the polls, I think it's reasonable to theorize that the Appalachian white vote has been a bit more like the Southern rural white vote in this respect, or maybe even trended further Trump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think it's fairly clear that our polling suggests that Biden's rebounded among northern white rural voters, whether in ME/MN/IA, but not at all in the South (not surprisingly): Rural/exurban white voters: TX: Trump 80, Biden 16 GA: Trump 82, Biden 14 IA: Trump 45, Biden 42 — PolitiTweet.org