Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I believe MJ Hegar is the least known candidate we've tested in our polling so far this month. 51% had no opinion. https://t.co/6u4KhHX0kq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I do think the possibility that the SCOTUS fight could hurt Trump has been overlooked, FWIW. The electorate has a well established instinct toward balance, whether it's thermostatic policy views or toward divided government in midterms. I can imagine it playing out w SCOTUS rn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now it could be noise, of course. But there's been no shortage of big news. A Supreme Court vacancy and nomination. Refusal to support a peaceful transition. NYT taxes. Now the debate. Much of this news could have potentially hurt Trump, including SCOTUS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With the important exception of the Monmouth national poll, the last five days of polls have been really brutal for Trump. The ABC/NYT polls in PA are potentially devastating. These Q/Civiqs polls in GA/SC are wild. Even Trafalgar has Biden ahead in PA/MI/WI. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@LPDonovan @JMilesColeman best poll he's had in months — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Quinnipiac in South Carolina: Trump 48, Biden 47 Graham 48, Harrison 48 It continues a streak of relatively strong results for Democrats from Quinnipiac, especially in the South https://t.co/yo70aufml6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbarro Only cardi b would have done better — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is the most @NateSilver538 sentence I've ever seen https://t.co/M9wCnQ9mE9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @doug_rivers: @Nate_Cohn Agree that it was awful, but Trump did badly with his base. 15% of his supporters thought it was a tie, compare… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mia_i_costa: Who should moderate the next debate? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And surprisingly, the section when Trump refused to condemn white supremacists didn't make the segment at all — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And surprisingly, the section about non-condemning white supremacists didn't make the segment at all — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I did just watch the local ABC news segment here in NY and fwiw I thought the Biden 'shut up man' comment came across a lot worse as an isolated clip than as just another episode in an unrelenting mess — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And I think that's the easiest test here. The whole Biden strategy is for this race to be about Trump, and it's obvious the Trump campaign would like it to be about Biden. I don't think there's any doubt who 'won' by that measure — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On the other hand, I can think of several clips that Trump's going to want back. The post-debate discussion is going to be about him, not Biden. And that's simply not what he needs. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't think Biden was terribly strong, especially after the first half hour. He certainly didn't dispel concerns about age or something. But as I think back on the debate, I can't really think of any clip that's going to reflect too badly on Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What a mess. There was no winner, certainly not the United States. And that makes Biden the winner. He's the frontrunner. It's Trump who needed the win, and I think most anyone would agree, as Chris Wallace said, that the president was largely responsible for the debate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @daveweigel: My hottest take is that Wallace did a very good job with all this. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't think that makes the local evening news segment, but yeah that'll be discussed https://t.co/S4tmzQukZ4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What exactly is the news on Biden at the end of this? What clip of Biden is going to be discussed on the news tomorrow? Shut up, you're a clown, etc.? Was there anything that gets used to make him look bad? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mckaycoppins: Quite a difference between "stand by" and "stand down!" — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SeanTrende: I love the people in my TL valiantly still trying to score this on the points being made. That's not how this debate is reg… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Look, if there's no winner in this debate, the winner is Biden — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh though that's not a low turnout runoff, and that's not loeffler — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh yeah, though that's not a low turnout special — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh not sure whether that would hold in this particular matchup, with a black dem running against an unpopular republican in an era where the gop may lost a lot of its edge among reliable turnout, college grad voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

They were pro-Dem, but here I'm defining it with respect to other pollsters. It's possible they'll be right (and it's possible the more right-leaning firms will be, as well) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In TX and Florida, their pro-GOP House effect among Hispanic voters has sometimes canceled it out. But I couldn't come up with any reason why this poll wasn't going to be for Biden — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In TX and Florida, their pro-GOP House effect among Hispanic voters has canceled it out. But I couldn't come up with any reason why this poll wasn't going to be for Biden — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden plus 3 in Georgia, per Quinnipiac. They've had a bit of a pro-Dem House Effect among southern white voters this year, so I have to say this was pretty easy to see coming https://t.co/OenkiojKpL — PolitiTweet.org