Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the dam breaks, we won't need structural engineers to explain it. It's bad for the president if the election's about all about COVID. He had a nice run from the RNC to Friday where it wasn't all about COVID; it bought them 2 pts. Now here's October. https://t.co/81UcPObQ0v — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden is also a light breeze away from leading in Texas, which would give him 413 electoral votes along with the other states where he leads in the polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the polls were exactly as wrong as they were over the final three weeks in 2016, Biden would still win with over 300 electoral votes https://t.co/FuxTub58ar — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins i wish we knew more about NBC/WSJ method, because i think they're RBS and presumably weighted on party — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden leads Trump by 16 points, 57 to 41 percent, in a new CNN/SSRS poll... Obviously we're probably in outlier territory up here, though NBC/WSJ had Biden+14 this weekend and the sample is D+5 https://t.co/0JeFgX4vV7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trump approval at -17 in the new CNN/SSRS poll. Hard to think it'll be a strong poll for Trump in the ballot test v. Biden https://t.co/3BSjnp671Y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MonmouthPoll: COMING TOMORROW: Pennsylvania poll @realDonaldTrump vs. @JoeBiden, including who voters trust more to handle the pandemic… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: More info on 2 White House residence staff members who tested positive - they worked for the housekeeping department on the… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Unlike most polls we actually weight on turnout history. So we're going to have a lot more of these new voters than the competition, and that may be the difference here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

32% may seem really high, but it's basically in line with 2016, when 30% of Arizona voters did not have a record of voting in 2012, per L2 data. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In our poll, voters without a record of voting in 2016 make up 32% of the electorate, and they break overwhelmingly for Biden--who leads by 2 pts among likely 2016 voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is not the first time we've had some better-than-average numbers for the Democrats in Arizona, so I looked a bit under the hood at something potentially material: the number of new voters. https://t.co/kLNcnUxdQ1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Arizona, 49 to 41 percent, in a new Times/Siena survey. Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally, 50 to 39 percent, in the US Senate race https://t.co/fyXkzWiFCO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Party registration is built into the design. The rest falls where it does. https://t.co/fJcUQwMSKF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We basically never have polls with Dem party ID anymore. This time: GOP+2 by party ID, GOP+4 by registration, Trump+6 by recalled '16 vote https://t.co/oGeYXsCimW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NYT/Siena in Arizona at 1PM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @EricBlake12: Louisiana friends- I know you are sick of hurricanes since you have been in so, so many cones this year. Hurricane fatigu… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MonmouthPoll: NEW JERSEY CD02 VOTER POLL: US House election #NJ02. Registered voters: 49% @AmyKennedy715 44% Jeff @VanDrewForNJ Lik… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PollsterPatrick: REMINDER: If you're looking for polls on party-switching Congressmen, we're the only game in town today. https://t.co… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MediumBuying: NEW: The Biden campaign is placing new TV ad spending in TEXAS to start 10/6 We've tracked buys in the El Paso and San A… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's an interesting fact for you: 30% of 2016 voters in Arizona didn't have a validated record of voting in AZ in 2012 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JonathanTamari: NEWS: PA Sen Pat Toomey will not run for governor or reelection in 2022. Announcement expected Monday. He'll serve out… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: The lying from the White House on Friday and from Conley yesterday about the president's condition is staggering. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The new YouGov number in PA--Biden+7--is pretty familiar, and it's an improvement for Biden over their prior polls there. We'll see Monmouth this week, but if you've got Monmouth, ABC/Post, NYT/Siena x2, and YouGov with Biden well ahead in PA, that's devastating for the president — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @edokeefe: JUST IN from @CBSNewsPoll: New Battleground Tracker surveys show @JoeBiden and @realDonaldTrump tied in Ohio and Biden leadin… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob i didn't think nbc/wsj was rdd fwiw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't really see why this poll is still using RVs. It's not going to make this poll great for Trump or something, but like it's not June anymore and I think we *know* that the turnout won't be 100% even if we don't know exactly what it will be — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

nope https://t.co/08SWds2qaH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's Biden's largest lead of the year in NBC/WSJ, which is generally a fairly stable survey https://t.co/Va4USuDYkr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mmurraypolitics: Headlines from new NBC/WSJ poll (conducted after the debate, 9/30-10/1) 1. Biden's national lead among registered vot… — PolitiTweet.org