Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @alexburnsNYT: the ol' "publicly break off talks, attack your negotiating partner with personal slurs, then come racing back to the tabl… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The averages are always a little bit behind. The president hasn't even had a mere Biden+8 national poll in like two days. Even Rasmussen is +12. Biden's lead in the average would keep going up if things keep going as they have been. https://t.co/PminUKGTwB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Given where things are at right now, this probably counts as one of the president's best national survey results in recent days — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Pew Research has Biden+10 among RVs and with a huge sample https://t.co/nrx5taKyyJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @JHagner @cam_joseph @jkt_ak Well we'll never know how hard it is if we don't try — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And sorry I flipped the chess-board around mid-thought here. The Senate Majority PAC buy above is Dem attack spending. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't think you could convince me that James is the best, dollar-for-dollar GOP spend of the bunch? But I'd certainly listen to the case for it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I was surprised to see James leading this list, at first. But after some reflection, I don't think it's that unreasonable given where McSally, Tillis and Ernst stand https://t.co/gxyibFasHG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 i think you definitely broke the tie in this poll — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

helpful — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Would you rather have a poll of Kansas or Alaska? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Maybe more importantly, 10/29 is probably after the time when voters will need to mail-in their ballots to assure that they arrive on time — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Whatever its other merits and dismerits, I will note that a debate on 10/29 is really tough on trying to pull off final polls... https://t.co/Wr22dJLBE5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ABC12Terry: ABC 12 News has learned the FBI investigated a plot to overthrow the state government and kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yes https://t.co/4t1B2xrnGC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is. Here, Biden will take a big lead and we'll have to wait for the Election Day vote to narrow it down. https://t.co/sTrVKDFLhG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

wow now that's something https://t.co/H9Kvbp7pbO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @EmmaKinery: White House chief of staff Mark Meadows hosted a lavish wedding for his daughter in Atlanta this May, despite a statewide o… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Obviously we'd probably expect Biden to win Florida if he's up like 9 or 10 points nationwide, but the difference between a 1/2 pt lead and a 3/4 pt lead is pretty significant for the prospects of a quick call on Election Night — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One place where the state polls seemed to have improved for Biden as of late is Florida, where Biden's been up by about 5 points on average over the last two weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: “I’m not gonna do a virtual debate,” Trump said on Fox Business just now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jeneps: The Second Presidential Debate will be VIRTUAL, @debates says ! https://t.co/W3ZXKVLEbO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: TRUMP campaign is exploring having him hold an event (not a rally) in Pittsburgh on Monday, per 3 ppl familiar with the disc… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We weight our samples by census block group density. The lowest quartile of census tract density represents 27% of the raw sample in OH and 26% in PA, so we slightly down-weight folks from less dense tracts. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I feel kinda sad for all the people who look at this and think there aren't enough rural voters: Census-defined rural PA: 33% of raw sample; 33% of PA registered voters Census-defined rural OH: 37% of raw sample; 37% of OH registered voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @kylegriffin1: Fox News poll: National: Likely voters Biden-Harris 53% Trump-Pence 43% "Biden leads Trump by 39 points among those sa… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden up by 9.51 in our average nationwide, rounding up to Biden+10 https://t.co/XfT3uJD2T2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

They do https://t.co/Sh7tBF7AA8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As you can see, we have the... latitude and longitude on our respondents. That's an extremely powerful tool for getting urban-rural splits right. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are lots of things in polling that are hard to get right. The *number* of voters in rural areas is not hard to get right. The number of rural RVs, for instance, is just a cold hard fact. We can make our polls match it. — PolitiTweet.org