Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Today at 1PM: NYT/Siena in SC. Tomorrow, Alaska. https://t.co/EWzv48tO2c https://t.co/2vc1SHUAJu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And to be clear, this is after recording the "Aryan" and "Irish-American" folks as 'white.' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You might wonder whether we have too few consistent white voters, and therefore it's too diverse/Dem. Yet it turns out that the folks listed as white on the voter file, but didn't call themselves white in the interview, are even more conservative than consistent white voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Same people, different answers in different settings: Voter-file race: White 70, Black 26, Hispanic 2, Other 1 Self-report race on the poll: White 63, Black 24, Hispanic 5, Other 3, DK 5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In our South Carolina poll this AM, for instance, 26% of registered voters identify as 'black' when they filled out their voter registration form, with the question as shown here https://t.co/jU7eLMAV1F — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One overarching takeaway from handling self-reported race this year, in a few contexts, is that this is a more challenging category for weighting than we might think. I'm not sure whether it's as easy to weight to census racial targets as I had assumed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

('Chupic" appeared to be 'Cup'ik' an Alaska Native tribe, and the respondent was in the geographic part of western Alaska for it, which was fun) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are constants: Irish and Italian-Americans identifying as such. A handful of racists: "Aryan." Ridiculous answers: "Ginger," "a big fat gay mulatto!" Interesting detective work, where an interviewer types an obscure answer phonetically--"Chupic"--and you figure it out — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One seemingly tedious task that I've come to enjoy is recoding the race of our respondents who say they're of 'some other race,' and then offer an answer. You never know what you're going to get — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: New NBC/WSJ (10/9-12, RVs): Biden 53% Trump 42%https://t.co/2aGC60JDSF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A nice family portrait of NC/SC heading into the last night of interviews in SC https://t.co/B4qN19HXOB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Cmkahn: Reuters/Ipsos polling (Oct. 7-14) FL: Biden+2 AZ: Biden+4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MonmouthPoll: COMING TOMORROW: Arizona #GeneralElection for Prez & Senate. Our September poll had @JoeBiden ahead of @realDonaldTrump a… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mattyglesias: Everyone on here is insane all the time — she was deriding the story! https://t.co/Ft9uu2hE4n — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think a Biden lead--even a comfortably lead--is a totally plausible poll result. I just think Biden at 29% among white voters without a degree is an implausible way of getting there. https://t.co/8xFqnf5Pgf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And no, I don't know why or how. I mean, even our sample of white no degree voters in ATL+inner burbs was just 30% Biden--I assume they call outside of those four counties. Biden was at 13% in the rest of the state — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Quinnipiac has had *a lot* of polls showing Biden doing really, really well among white southerners, including white southerners without a degree in the Deep South. And hey, maybe it'll happen. But that's a far-fetched possibility IMO, and pollster bias is the easier explanation — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In general, I'm pretty open-minded about the range of possibilities in this election. I'm also very slow to judge pollsters based on crosstabs, since I think so much of what goes on down there is just noise that cancels out. But... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The other thing is that undecided voters are also just less likely to vote https://t.co/x6xt5LyCtZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yes. Even about 20% of the folks in our lowest LV category 'not at all likely to vote' ultimately go on to vote https://t.co/Dftq743yKT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

--we're naming the third party candidates, and in any given survey a decent number are backing a minor party candidate, even if I don't tweet about them — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

--we're naming the third party candidates, and in any given survey a decent number of people who are undecided are backing a minor party candidate, even if I don't tweet about them — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are some structural reasons why we do get higher undecided voters than other polls: --probablistic LV screen keeps some number of people who say they won't vote, who are far likelier to be undecided --we have far more low turnout voters, who are far likelier to be undecided — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I honestly don't understand why people want to push undecided voters to make up a mind in a race when they barely know the candidates. Knowing that they're undecided is a lot more valuable https://t.co/LlB0xUQgLw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not surprisingly, huge favorability swings against Cunningham last month. His ratings fell from 46-29 fav/unfav to 40-41. But that happens to keep his ratings... about the same as Tillis, who is at 43-44. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Joe Biden and Cal Cunningham maintain a lead in North Carolina, according to a new Times/Siena poll Biden leads Trump, 46 to 42 percent Cunningham leads Tillis, 41 to 37 percent https://t.co/tUtogmK6kE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @dparkermontana: .@Nate_Cohn .@baseballot .@LarrySabato .@gelliottmorris We have a poll out in Montana. Results can be found here, as w… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @QuinnipiacPoll: Tim Malloy & Mary Snow to discuss results of #Georgia and #Ohio polls of likely voters regarding: 2020 presidential ele… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NC is D+3 and Trump+6 on recalled vote https://t.co/MacslKPbJC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NYT/Siena in North Carolina at 1PM. The rest of our schedule for the week is updated https://t.co/FuxTub58ar — PolitiTweet.org