Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On cautionary step we took: we only went for N=425. We just didn't know whether rural AK was just tough like totally absolutely horrible. We didn't want to be in a position where we literally called every number we had out there without enough responses. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

TBH, I'd rather poll Alaska than Michigan. And if we had to do it again, I think we did learn a little bit to help tighten it up even more--though I'm comfortable with what we've got. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As you probably know, we're going to have an Alaska poll out at 1PM today. It's a notoriously tough state and this was our first time polling it. Long time listeners know that sometimes our first time polling a state can be messy! I didn't think this one fell in that category — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MadelainePisani: James has more than double the cash on hand Peters does. He’s going into the final weeks with $8.7 million. Peters… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You'll find out where we peg the horserace in AK in a few hours, but regardless of the topline, one thing sure to be different in our poll: the standing of John Howe, the AIP candidate, who doesn't appear to be named on the ballot test here https://t.co/RT29jiWGgn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is exceptionally jarring to switch between the two town halls tonight. Like two different planets — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is exceptionally jarring to switch between the two town halls tonight — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jimsciutto: WaPo: White House was warned Giuliani was target of Russian intelligence operation to feed misinformation to Trump https://… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@unrealmoirarose @Taniel @ChrisTrengove @kkondik tbh if it was instant runoff it might be 4. but who knows where we'll be there in three months — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Taniel @ChrisTrengove @kkondik some would say i'm sleeping on it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Taniel @ChrisTrengove @kkondik here's my Senate flip draft board 1. AL 2. CO 3. AZ 4. ME 5. NC 6. IA 7. MT 8. GA special 9. MI 10. TX 11. GA regular 12. KS 13. SC 14. KY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @wesmediaproject: Trump has recently backed away from advertising in MN, MI and WI. While the impact of presidential ads tends to be fa… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: Again today > https://t.co/8cGqtdSHCs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I thought I saw a poll with Biden ahead by 7 points nationwide--the average from like 3 weeks ago. It turned out to be Pence v. Harris. There's no good news out there for the president right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, we've talked to people in the Aleutians https://t.co/xVkXbA7eRn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think the poll is good for Harrison in basically every way... except the ballot test. His favs are good. Bledsoe number is good. Voters say Graham isn't trustworthy. The pres race is close enough that you can *imagine* enough split-tickets to win https://t.co/pyvKR9IhDw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think it's a lot better than eye-balling the pct. undecided by demographic group in the crosstabs https://t.co/YyKlfost6X — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And I see a lot of talk about undecided voters, but like, if you just allocate the undecided vote by Trump approval you get up to... Graham +7.6. If you allocate with the presidential race ballot, you get Graham+7.3. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you crosstab the results on *voter file* race, instead of self-report, you get the same thing: Black: 82-3 in the presidential race White 26-66. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Our sample is 65-23 white/black by self-report in the poll. When those same folks registered to vote, they were 71-26 white/black. We weight on the latter definition, since we know exactly how many people identified as white or black on their voter registration form — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yeah, so there's an interesting gap here--how voters respond to our poll question about race and ethnicity, and how they responded to the race question on their voter registration form. https://t.co/VC4eJgX85O — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In terms of the composition of the electorate, the sample is 71% white and 26% black, based on how voters described their race when they registered to vote. That represents an uptick in the black share of the electorate from '16, and there's no RV-LV gap here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Unlike some other polling out there, we find that Republicans continue to hold an overwhelming advantage among white voters without a degree in the state, who back Trump by a 77-18 margin. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the presidential race, Donald Trump holds a slightly larger 49 to 41 percent lead over Joe Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Notably, Graham quite a bit better in interviews over the last two nights during the confirmation hearings. He ran well behind the president over the weekend, but ran well ahead of the president over the last two days. Maybe noise. Maybe not. It'll be interesting to see. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Lindsey Graham holds modest lead in the race for U.S. Senate in South Carolina, according a new Times/Siena poll. Graham leads Harrison, 46 to 40. Bill Bledsoe--who has dropped out--holds 4 percent, and another 2 percent won't vote for Senate. https://t.co/HsXxEDiuCx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PollsterPatrick but practically--what am i looking at? a model? varying self-report cutoffs? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PatrickSvitek: News: Dem super PAC @MajorityPAC is making big late play in Texas $8.6M TV buy against @JohnCornyn https://t.co/HFpbk… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

forgot the link : https://t.co/kLQP3D66HZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden leads in Arizona, according to a new Monmouth poll there. He's up 7 points in a 'high turnout' electorate, 51-44, and leads by 2 points in a 'low turnout' election. (fwiw I would be interested to know what 'high' and 'low' turnout really mean, @PollsterPatrick) — PolitiTweet.org