Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ThePlumLineGS no, it wouldn't be self evident (it also won't be self evident that the overall lean of the map was good for democrats if the reverse ends up being true, as fivethirtyeight projects). the edge is small enough that noisy individual races can prevail over the map — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

i'd also like to introduce a new, highly scientific measure of a competitive district/state: the VA-NC rule https://t.co/utTdBbhnl2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We'll have more on the House next week -- along with some updates on the latest polls. You can sign up for the newsletter to get it in your inbox, here https://t.co/J4LqHouV6L — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's flimsy, small by historic standards and, interestingly, it's not necessarily even bigger than the GOP structural edge in the Senate this fall (which basically everyone thinks the Dems can over come, even if they may still lose) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The GOP's gerrymandering advantage this fall isn't especially large Dems may not win the House, but this doesn't rank especially high on the reasons why at this point https://t.co/cq2hwkTOjp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Unlike CBS or ABC, the Fox polls in PA/GA don't show any material gap between likely and registered voters. That makes it more like the Times/Siena poll, which showed D+1 among LVs (v. D+2 among RVs) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The missing first night of horse race interviews, from the Selzer poll, isn't something I can remember seeing before. Presumably someone forgot to program the survey properly. I feel their pain on this one https://t.co/gmutQ3UURV https://t.co/O6AqIAJnPZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A lot of you don't love the Google metric -- I like it a lot -- but here's another: the share of voters citing abortion as the 'most important' issue fell from 8% in July to 4% in September, per Gallup — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So far, there aren't huge signs of this reshaping the race. There are a few, perhaps -- Biden's ratings aren't going up anymore; Democrats losing ground in a few key Senate races v. August; maybe the RV/LV gaps in the polls this weekend. We'll have to see — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There is pretty clearly a shift in the issue environment. Here, one example -- interest in abortion is back down to pre-Dobbs levels on Google Searches, with the economy overtaking it. It's quite a bit like the pre-Dobbs leak numbers https://t.co/vcD3fzfuaV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Over the last month or so, the issue environment has kept shifting toward the Republicans. Whether that continues -- and whether it ultimately yields GOP polling gains -- is one of the biggest questions as we head into the final stretch https://t.co/x0Z0jiIk92 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Nate_Cohn: @conorsen if the last 20 years/polls hadn't set super high expectations for Democrats, we would have heard over and over aga… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@conorsen if the last 20 years/polls hadn't set super high expectations for Democrats, we would have heard over and over again that 2020 was belatedly, finally, the real Dem realigning election: Biden 51.3, Trump 46.8 McKinley 51, Bryan 46.7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Looking back on the 'Emerging Democratic Majority', twenty years later https://t.co/qqM7piJeL9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Neil_Irwin: It feels like today might turn out to be a momentous day in economic/financial history in ways that aren’t known to the vas… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MadronaCitizen: This has been a very good newsletter so far 👍 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Pro-tip: you read the today's post on the right-hand side of the page (see 'scroll to preview') https://t.co/vfLG2cOZH5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There is a funny story here, as John Judis and I worked together at TNR at the time and he did not recall that they had 'blue WV' https://t.co/yiHt7FTZmt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's not on the web as something I can link to, at least right now. If you want this stuff in your inbox you can sign up here https://t.co/vfLG2cPxwD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Today's newsletter looks back on the Emerging Democratic Majority -- and goes through some of the misconceptions about the book and where it went wrong, even on its own terms. I think this map is a nice illustration of how the book has been misunderstood. Blue WV, red VA! https://t.co/Zp4uEf4kKI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@leedrutman @BrendanNyhan @ElectProject @protctdemocracy i'm utterly agnostic on whether this is a problem. i'm neither an advocate nor an opponent of your proposal. but pretending there aren't representational trade offs is brain-dead — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@leedrutman @BrendanNyhan @ElectProject @protctdemocracy i'm utterly agnostic on whether this is a problem. i'm neither an advocate nor an opponent of your proposal. but pretending there aren't representational trade offs is brain-dead — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@leedrutman @BrendanNyhan @ElectProject @protctdemocracy no, i'm not. there are many latino communities--especially the poorest and lowest turnout latino communities--that punch way above their electoral with SMD and not just due to the VRA. SF's CA12 had 3x as many voters as CA21 in '18 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jon_m_rob: https://t.co/0KGQ2YF0S7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @RuthIgielnik: In July we asked voters if they thought Trump had commited serious crimes, how they thought he handled the 2020 election… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @derekwillis: Likelihood that @Nate_Cohn agreed to write a newsletter so he could put in Seahawks references: 100%, +/- 0.00000 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JacksonBarlow7: Thank you @Nate_Cohn for this snippet, Russ needs to start putting up numbers or I’m gonna lose my fantasy league for s… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SPotterGA thank you! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @baseballot: Just a reminder... https://t.co/XoPvqm8P8y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SPotterGA is the R+9 in the poll the party ID or the partisanship variable from the L2 voter file? — PolitiTweet.org