Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mcimaps: Osceola County, just south of Orlando, is nearly 50% Hispanic in registration. It saw a massive swing in the 2020 election, g… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mcimaps: Orange County, FL - a major bedrock for Democrats in the state at this point - largely maintained the same margin in 2020 and… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Imagine all that would have been missed if we told the story of Trump's gains among white working class voters in '16 as a bunch of localized tales about some union in Youngstown or some Catholic diocese in Scranton or guns in Wisconsin, or whatever — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Something happened with the Latino vote just about everywhere in the country, and I don't feel entirely satisfied with by the explanations to this point, in part because so many want to tackle the problem by slicing and dicing the group — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In this case, I think a lot was obscured by the erroneous--and clearly erroneous on election night (see Osceola)--assumption that Trump's gains among Latino voters were localized and confined to groups that were deemed unrepresentative of Latinos more generally — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But more often than not, I think you tend to lose information by allowing 'x group isn't a monolith'--however true--to obscure what voters within the major demographic groups share in common — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is important to be cognizant of intra-group fissures, and make sure to raise them when they matter. In the Obama era, for instance, it was really important to distinguish between white working class voters in the north and south. They swung fundamentally differently — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Nonetheless, these big messy groups--young people, white working class voters, latino voters, and so on--really do have things in common that distinguishes them from the rest of the electorate, making them useful categories for analysis despite all the subtlety they obscure — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Even racially/educationally homogenous groups (say, white working class voters) include huge variation: white no college voters in Mississippi and Vermont have... very little in common — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Even racially/educationally homogenous groups (say, white working class voters) include huge variation: white no college voters in Mississippi and Vermont have... very little in a lot of respects — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Every major demographic group is heterogeneous. Many frequently analyzed demographic groups, like women or young voters include people of every educational, racial or regional strata — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Indeed, and so it's worth circling back on an element of the post-election discussion about Latino voters: the refrain that it's a heterogeneous group (which is undoubtedly true) https://t.co/PHiBoTs52w — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @otis_reid: Did the Trump money on ⁦@PredictIt⁩ really think SCOTUS was going to invalidate the whole thing? Wild https://t.co/qTebTDrRfp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@karlbykarlsmith cmon — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A telling historical footnote will be that they were joined by two non-existent states in their effort to overturn the results of four actual states, which is very much in line with the quality of the allegations that have been raised over the last month — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So a majority of House Republicans and AGs asked the Supreme Court to nullify the result of the presidential election--and bring about a constitutional crisis with untold risks to the country--in a case that the Court dismissed in a couple of paragraphs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SCOTUSblog: BREAKING: The Supreme Court has denied Texas' last-ditch effort to overturn the election results in four battleground state… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@LPDonovan if dems beat the spread then they would have *really* did a fraud — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway this was a stable election, outside of Latino areas and traditionally GOP well-educated suburbs, so a lot of the differences here are small. But it is not at all obvious that Trump should have done as well as he did in the key battlegrounds, given what happened elsewhere — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's that in map form, thanks to @uselectionatlas https://t.co/2CI6FvY6eZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you go through the states that trended GOP with respect to the country, you can group them into four main groups: Diverse, urban: CA/NV/FL/NY/NJ/IL/HI Above avg Black population: NC/AL/MS/AR/LA McMullen/LDS: ID/UT Key northern battleground states: WI/IA/OH/PA And that's it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If there's any irregularity, maybe that's it? It is a little hard to explain why Biden did quite so poorly in the Midwestern battleground states — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

More generally, one of the incredible things about the election is that Biden generally *underperformed* in the decisive battleground states. Biden gained less in PA/MI/WI than elsewhere in the nation, causing Trump's E.C. edge to expand to nearly 4 points — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, it's hard to imagine being a Texas Republican--and seeing the way your state has swung left under tough voting rules--and being aghast that Biden managed to squeak out wins in traditionally bluer states — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden improved by 3.4 points over Clinton's performance in the state--a larger improvement than his gains in any of PA/MI/WI. He did so despite suffering big losses among the state's Latino voters--a group that represents a sliver of the vote in PA/MI/WI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden improved by 3.4 points over Clinton's performance in the state--a far larger improvement than his gains in any of Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin. He did so despite suffering big losses among the state's Latino voters--a group unrepresented in PA/MI/WI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The state of Texas has strict voter ID laws and didn't expand absentee voting. As far as I know, Texas checked just about every box of the GOP voting rules wish list. And yet Trump only won Texas by 5.3 points--a result that's pretty facially consistent with GOP defeat — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One of the strangest parts about the Texas suit is that it originates in Texas. If there's any state GOP that ought to intuit that the election result is entirely sound, it's probably the Texas GOP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rantsofmich the number of 0s in my tweet was made up as well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, it's part of the reason why our election night estimate was a little bit high on Biden's final margin of victory in Pennsylvania (overcoming the 1:10000000000 odds against us!!) https://t.co/u0UkyByBM4 — PolitiTweet.org