Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jeremybowers and to your original question, this is a model of biden support so the party composition of 2020 voters is the same as the actual result with all RVs at something like 51.6 biden — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jeremybowers and after 2020, vote method helps you even more — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jeremybowers GA's an easy state! it has high racial and geographic polarization, and primary vote history isn't registration but it gets you a lot of the way there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But broadly speaking, we now have a very clear signal from both absentee and in-person early voting data that we can expect a high turnout election, with no meaningful indication so far that either side will enjoy a turnout edge compared to the general election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I wouldn't read much into the details of the comparison--either in terms of the level of turnout or the composition of the vote. No two elections are identical. Folks w/long memories will recall ridic lines in Oct., tho not yesterday. Many noted fewer voting centers in Cobb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yesterday's voters were, again, quite Democratic. By our measure of party primary history, it was Dem 47, Rep 36-- about the same or perhaps a little better for the GOP than day one of the general, which was Dem 49, Rep 34. Racial demographics quite similar too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the general election, for example, our estimate was that Biden won the first two days of early voting, three of the four weekend days, and Trump won basically every other day of early voting https://t.co/9JID24eq3I — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's dive into some of these numbers. One important bit of context: day one of early voting is not usually representative, it's usually quite good for Democrats https://t.co/O5bhOFqwTM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A record-shattering first day of early voting in the Georgia runoff: 168k vote in-person yesterday, up from 136k on day one of in-person early voting for the general election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We can't do that yet. But at the outset, it's hard to say the absentee data is obviously great for either side and there's certainly no reason think this is an '08-type scenario, with a crash in turnout and a vastly different electorate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ultimately we're going to know a lot more once we add the early voting into the picture, which starts today, then we will from these absentee ballots. At the end of it, we could easily have 75% of the vote and it ought to be reasonable to compare to the general, and infer a swing — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the general election, the late requests--over the last three weeks--were a little bit GOP-leaning compared to those who requested August, for ex.. We'll see if that happens this time — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In terms of party primary history (by our measure), the absentee requests so far are D45, R29; it was D41 R29 at this point in the general election. Those who have requested since 11/3 are D49, R14; those who requested beforehand were D41, R42. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In terms of demographics and partisanship, the requests look quite a bit like the general election, tho a bit older, slightly whiter, and slightly more Dem. Why?: --fewer post-11/3, non-cyclelong requests, who are younger --the non-cyclelong requests are more D than the general — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And even this is a tough comparison, as some folks requested ballots over the last three weeks. Today, requests are at 77% of where they were at this point before the general election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gtryan i have 1.6m by this point, or 77%? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gtryan that's not what i get? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gtryan no they're not — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Nonetheless, requests are at about 70% of general election levels, despite fewer opportunities (and evidence that GOPers are even less interested in participating by absentee). Of these, about half were requested pre-11/3, by voters eligible to request for full cycle absentees — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's hard to read too much into the data because voters didn't exactly have an equal opportunity to request absentee ballots for the runoff and the general election. The general election was coming all year; the runoff and its significance only became evident a month ago — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We already have a lot of data in GA: more than 1.2 million absentee ballot requests, including 260k votes. It's hard to read too much into the data, but on balance it's hard to say that it augurs for a vastly different electorate than the general (in terms of partisanship) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Good morning everyone, happy start of in-person early voting for Georgia Senate runoffs day — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @reidepstein: The Michigan Capitol is closed. Arizona electors meeting at an undisclosed location. A secret entrance in Wisconsin to kee… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jeremybowers is it just a duck egg or is it duck sausage, or both — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There were a lot of surprises in 2020, but I'd put the vastly reduced salience of immigration in this election v. '18 and '20 on the list. Immigration wasn't even mentioned in the first debate, and the exit poll didn't bother to ask about it, either — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @EsotericCD @yeselson quite possibly! and you can add that to a very long list of issues with the fantasy. but again, i'm just saying that i didn't look at this tweet storm and think 'd/r come together to do progressive reforms.' in context of a split gop, i think they would clearly hurt progressives — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @EsotericCD @yeselson all i'm saying that i don't think these reforms advance progressive interests once we stipulate that the GOP has split, and while the fantasy has a million problems i think the reforms represent an earnest, if undoubtedly insufficient, effort to make it viable — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EsotericCD @yeselson @SeanTrende and stipulating a split GOP lol, certainly we can agree that RCV and multi-member would probably lead to more conservative seats than first past the post — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EsotericCD @yeselson @SeanTrende i'm just saying that i interpreted the reforms as intended to create a viable multi-party system with two conservative parties, with a 'normal' conservative party deciding coalition gvt, rather than an attempt to crush both parties, regardless of the merits of the fantasy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EsotericCD @yeselson @SeanTrende fwiw i think the addition of ranked choice does the opposite in the context of a split GOP, as dems would still have to face a consolidated conservative vote post-rank choice and couldn't just clean up against a split GOP — PolitiTweet.org