Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot boo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot is there any 538 product that shows your generic ballot estimate after rv/lv adjustments — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SeanTrende: Early vote analysis has correctly predicted 5 of the last 2 good democratic years — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Monmouth with R+6 among registered voters; puts the GOP back into the lead on the 538 generic ballot tracker https://t.co/WSSvYgi2Wr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ragipsoylu: BREAKING: Boris Johnson is expected to stand in the contest to replace Liz Truss as PM and believes it is a matter of “nati… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile i'm more agnostic about whether the turnout rate among registrants will be up a lot. there are way more registrants than '18. tbh idk whether 128 = an increase at all among RVs (it might) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile turnout in NJ was like 20% higher than '17 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile basically everything. the 2020 registration/turnout increases the baseline for midterm dropoff; the VA/NJ turnout was high; the primary turnout was high. the specials are maybe the exception, but the media didn't go wild about them like GA6 or something — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The last Times/Siena poll's prior for turnout was 128 million https://t.co/gMKJ4QS5v1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Many voters are concerned about "threats to democracy." But when they say that, they're not necessarily thinking about the same things discussed by the media, like subversion or election denial https://t.co/W9JyaCouAQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ProfPolitiqueUS @tbonier @SienaResearch @PollSiena @UpshotNYT @nytimes because there are people who DK/refuse and don't fit into a category — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @ProfPolitiqueUS @SienaResearch @PollSiena @UpshotNYT @nytimes the crosstabs present self reported demographics even when we weight on voter file variables — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SeanTrende: Reminder: don’t be a crosstab truther. You’re dealing with small sample sizes, sometimes subjected to multidimensional wei… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ProfPolitiqueUS @SienaResearch @PollSiena @UpshotNYT @nytimes a surprising number of people don't tell us their age — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jon_m_rob: 💯💯💯💯 https://t.co/VY5bWB1Ihn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cmatthewspolls @ShaneGoldmacher i do think this sort of analysis cuts both ways in polls weighted poll, though. dems gained among men; seems like a give away that this is mainly random sampling in subgroups without necessarily huge topline consequences — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Though interestingly, it would not be accurate to say the GOP leads by 4. They’re only up 3 in the poll. A digression on rounding in the newsletter today, along with a belated explanation of (all pretty minor) methods changes since 20 https://t.co/4F9Y5zB5AA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NYT/Siena shows GOP 49, Dem 45 on the generic ballot, with economic concerns weighing more heavily on voters and the summer’s focus on abortion/guns/democracy fading https://t.co/FcvWeSe5bt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @derektmuller honestly this is the best piece of evidence in defense of the poll — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@a_lost_future @jon_m_rob yeah, basically. her weighting framework doesn't allow her to do anything more complicated — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob and she thinks it's obvious because she's a traditionalist. her position is that all you need to do is RDD with 5 call backs and everyone else is messing up by not following the text books — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob i don't think it's cryptic -- she opens by saying she's speculating and then she speculates about the only thing that really changed between sept and oct, right? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob idk, she needs an explanation for why things changed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob i don't think she's adjusting on early voting, unless she's made more fundamental methodology changes. there's not a mechanism for incorporating that in her simple poststratification + screen framework — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot also my back is unexpectedly sore — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot dead — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @KenJennings: inviting Felix back and then scoring no runs would be true commitment to the bit. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 @kwcollins that's the thing -- i'm not disagreeing with your points; have a great day! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 @kwcollins i'm not offering a fix. another feature of ideological debate -- assuming that the introduction of counterarguments makes you a counteradvocate :) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 @kwcollins i say borderline ideological because the conversations have a feature that's very common to ideological discussions: even very smart pro-rounding people have a very hard time understanding and then acknowledging that there are real tradeoffs — PolitiTweet.org