Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The GOP lead has steadily grown, but it's made no dent in our estimate. In fact, Democratic chances have inched upward as the GOP opportunities to beat our expectations and comeback gradually dwindle — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The GOP lead has steadily grown, but it's made no dent in our estimate. In fact, Democratic chances have inched upward as the GOP opportunities for a comeback gradually dwindle — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Over the last hour or so, a lot of the remaining GOP vote has trickled in, leaving an even more Democratic group of remaining ballots. Ossoff now favored to win what's out by 18 points https://t.co/BOLB6erYXu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Unlike the Warnock race, which is effectively over, the Ossoff race is still close that it's worth dotting the 'i's and crossing the 't's, especially since the model adds an uncertain number of provisional and late absentee ballots that you do want to see to believe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Same story on the Ossoff side, who is now up to a 78% chance to win. GOP just not doing what they need to do to overcome the Democratic votes still to come — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another big dump of votes that pads the GOP lead. Another dump of votes that's not going to help them. Warnock now at 92% https://t.co/1gPBv1fNfz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

ex. of an unlikely error: 'what if the dekalb county vote is 'actually' in, unbeknownst to us.' we humans know that's not so, but those of you who may remember NC on election night know that the needle can be tricked into that if some county enters their data wrong, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

ex. of an unlikely error: 'what if the dekalb county vote is 'actually' in, unbeknownst to us.' we humans know that's not so, but those of you who may remember NC on election night know that these kind of errors happen — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A lot of GOP vote trickling in slowly over the last half hour but it's mostly been a hair better for Democrats than expected. Warnock win probability now over 90%, and do remember this is accounting for the possibility of some unlikely kinds of errors https://t.co/o2UteNjHdh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The biggest source of remaining vote, as we've said, is the in-person early vote in DeKalb, which alone could break to Democrats by a 120k vote margin — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yes, Democrats remain heavily favored, despite their deficit in the tabulated vote. They're favored to win what's left by 9 to 10 points https://t.co/0j5ZRAkGmI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@IanfergM well you can see how it all adds up on the handy table, right beneath the map — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You can explore what's left on our handy maps https://t.co/nEDpdIkAL6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The biggest dump of remaining Democratic vote is the ~170k DeKalb County in-person early vote, which we expect to break for Ossoff by an 85-15 margin — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The recent votes have given the GOP the lead but they were... exactly what we expected. https://t.co/SqM6OOESt5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Indeed, Democrats now have their largest leads of the night as the first Atlanta area ballots arrive, with both candidates favored to prevail by at least a percentage point and Warnock inching up to a projected 1.7 pt edge — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Republicans have taken the lead in the tabulated vote, but the remaining ballots are overwhelmingly in the Atlanta area and there is so far no indiction that the Republicans are poised to outrun expectations in what remains. They haven't really done so at any point tonight — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing to keep in mind on the Ossoff race is that it does include some late absentees/provisionals that won't be counted tonight, and it's very conceivable that he'll need them to clear the .5 recount threshold, even if he goes on to win by .9 like currently estimated — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini different feeds — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now that doesn't mean the race is so over that you could call it, particularly in the Ossoff-Perdue race. It's not 99% Ossoff. But it's not 62% either — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's a ton of Atlanta area vote left, and it thinks anything is possible given the long history of 'anything' happening. And there were huge sources of uncertainty at the beginning of the night (650 or 1.3 million eday votes!). But they're just not there anymore — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's a ton of Atlanta area vote left, and it thinks anything is possible the long history of 'anything happening.' And while there were huge sources of uncertainty at the beginning of the night (650 or 1.3 million eday votes!) I just don't think they're there anymore — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My strongly held view is that the needles are greatly overstating the uncertainty at this point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Could be? Can also just be the noise of running simulations https://t.co/ufiaapS3en — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This of course is the benefit of ... well we had this election two months ago already. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The needle has a lot of uncertainty based on a variety of historical factors. It gets surprised sometimes! You've seen it if you've watched it over the years. It's just not getting surprised tonight. https://t.co/phPmh1zFKK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Though looking back, the needle now estimates 57k in DeKalb eday, up from 54k maybe half an hour ago, and halving the distance with the reported truth (61k) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And the overall turnout estimate is at 4.415 million at the moment, though the public tea leafs on election day ATL-area turnout suggest that will be a bit low — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mmmmmmbeer D+400 - R+370 = D+30k — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To circle back to a pre-election question, Ossoff is on track to net-400k out of the advance vote with 56.4%. Perdue on track to get net-370k out of election day, by our estimate, with 64.5% — PolitiTweet.org