Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@KevinQ @thegoodtribe adds up if it's provisionals — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I do https://t.co/xnIj4PmjV9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(that said, I do think our estimates for the number of remaining absentee votes will be pretty good) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ossoff's lead is up to three-tenths of a point, and it's poised to grow more. It's mainly just absentee ballots and provisionals (not in the table, you'll note), and the exact number of both is still murky--and that's how I'd think of our estimates at this point as well https://t.co/zRruxHQJbM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One minor thing: there were a lot of terrible turnout predictions, from campaign and state estimates to interpretation of early voting or election day lines. Hardly the first time this guessing game was so useless, and it's worth remembering just how little people know about it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Raphael Warnock is the winner in the Georgia special senate election, according to the AP, keeping Democrats on track to take control of the U.S. Senate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(This does add in our estimates for the remaining vote) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Turnout are as a share of general by type of precinct: >80% Trump: 88% >80% Biden: 92% >80% Black: 93% >50% college: 92% >80% no college&white: 87% Urban 91% Suburban 90% Rural 88% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Maybe it shouldn't be a surprise, given the stakes of the race and the political moment, but this was a remarkable and high turnout. I mean, yea, there was probably slightly more Trump vote dropoff--see the result--but the turnout in >80% Trump areas was still at 88% of general — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Baked into the remaining mail https://t.co/ugrx8xyuZY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's what's left in the Ossoff race, according to our estimates https://t.co/6eXTad9Zhk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

well if you answered yes, i have to tell your doubts are largely misplaced but that i'm not sure there are enough of you for me to write an article about it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Do you harbor meaningful doubts about whether Ossoff will win? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One factor shaping our estimate in DeKalb: the remaining early votes in DeKalb are in majority black precincts, and we expect Ossoff to clear 90% of the vote in these final 18k in-person early votes there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

IDK why there isn't a call in the Warnock-Loeffler race fwiw. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(those are total remaining votes, not net-votes though we expect him to get it) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you go through our map, you can see other reservoirs of support for Ossoff, including 50k in Fulton County, 30k in Newton/Henry, 27k in Chatham, etc. https://t.co/pUf0JkqocY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But the remaining early in-person votes in DeKalb, alone, will give Ossoff the kind of lead that Biden had in the final count, and there's a lot more for him beyond that. So there may not be a call there tonight, but it's not serious doubt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ossoff's lead is still just slim enough that you do want to make sure that some of these late absentees and provisionals really materialize to the extent we expect. I'd think we could see some projections in the Warnock race tonight — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ossoff's lead is still just slim enough that you do want to make sure that some of these late absentees and provisionals really materialize to the extent we project. I'd think we could see some projections in the Warnock race tonight — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ossoff and Warnock are both on track for victory with a greater than 95% chance to win, according to our estimates. This is not a projection, but the remaining vote--including another 18k DeKalb early votes and nearly 100k absentee votes--overwhelmingly favors the Democrats https://t.co/SLaECHdFeT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The fundamental GOP problem at this point: the Republican vote is basically exhausted. Ossoff favored to win what's left by 36 points (he needs to win by 26 to win) https://t.co/ktxTrsXM1F — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ossoff up to a 92% chance to win, according to our estimates. A lot of Perdue's path depends on tabulation errors--of the sort we briefly considered as a possibility when they erroneously said 130k were left. https://t.co/jt0yE7BY2u — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Warnock is on track for victory with a greater than 95 percent chance to win, according to our estimates. This is not a projection, but Republicans have largely exhausted their vote and Loeffler lead will not survive the remaining Democratic vote under reasonable assumptions https://t.co/Z2XA6jup1o — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Turns out the official just misspoke, according to appx. 1000 twitter replies — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, I suppose I can't be 100.0% sure there isn't a mistake somewhere. NC counties made a similar mistake in November. That's the kind of thing that pads our model uncertainty to an extent that's empirically difficult to quantify but tbh happens https://t.co/wjnr3PCf2P — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now one possibility is that there's a reporting error--say, they uploaded 30k and called it in-person. I see no signs of that. The votes are left. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The state reports the early vote in great detail; and there were definitely 170k votes cast in-person in early voting in DeKalb County. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm getting a lot of questions about the DeKalb County vote that remains. Apparently an election official said they only had 130k votes left, not 170k in-person early votes as they had previously said. First and foremost, I think it's quite clear that it's 170k votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

DeKalb County (and all Georgia counties) posted the exact number of in-person early votes long before election day. They even posted their names, addresses, etc. https://t.co/ONLFq9Y5FR — PolitiTweet.org