Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JoshFromIndy if the bad night was 2016: it was fantastic in 2016 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The needle would be beloved on this website if its 2016 performance had been in reverse (if hypothetically, Trump led in the '16 polls, the needle started with Trump at 85% to win, and had Clinton at >95% to win by 1030PM while networks still talked like Trump favored) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, people on this website (aka democrats) completely forget about this stuff because it was bad news for Democrats. It would be remembered entirely differnetly if the NC/FL polls said GOP favored, Dems won by 1-3 points, and needle called it from the start. Same with '16 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's North Carolina, just a few months ago (and the hick up in the estimate around 11PM result was induced by an IRL irregularity in the NC results, not the needle). https://t.co/d8CHeopdhp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's Florida, just a few months ago https://t.co/SrScfw9JIn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The needle is only a subject of angst because it's had bad news for Democrats. It's often this good (or better) https://t.co/FFEuwIIfFr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @dnvolz: I am just stunned there are some saying we need to just move on from Wednesday's events when all the documented evidence shows… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: Punishing federal law enforcement officials bc they won’t help him steal an election. How does the Senate avoid at least a c… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @WakeUp2Politics: NEW — Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA): “I do think the president committed impeachable offenses.” https://t.co/6OJKNwqmmk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MySportsUpdate: 10 years ago today: Marshawn Lynch wiped out the entire Saints defense with one of the greatest runs ever. The Beast Qu… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

the point isn't that there would be no consequence to up to four new Democratic Senators, it's that it wouldn't fundamentally change the balance of power--as many assume or assert https://t.co/Xo7AKGJIqS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @seungminkim: Could anyone have predicted this alert a week ago I mean https://t.co/uSnMB6whj0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NPRnie: It’s painfully clear that the initial live tv shots we all saw, and may be all that many people see, didn’t reveal how ugly thi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Donald Trump would still win the presidency in 2016 https://t.co/pXsO4HUYJ4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If PR/AL were states, then the Doug Jones race in 2017 would have flipped Senate control (which the GOP would win back in 2018), though there's a distinct possibility that Jones wouldn't have won if Senate control was on the line — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's how Senate control would have changed over the last decade if DC and Puerto Rico had been states: 2010: D (IRL) --> D (with DC+PR) 2012: D --> D 2014: R --> R 2016: R --> R 2018: R --> R 2020: D --> D *ALSEN in 2017 is an interesting side-story — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's how Senate control would have changed over the last decade if DC had been a state: 2010: D (IRL) --> D (with DC) 2012: D --> D 2014: R --> R 2016: R --> R 2018: R --> R 2020: D --> D — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Noahpinion: There's just almost no way to effectively project positivity and human warmth on this platform. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @bluestein: Just in: David Perdue concedes to Jon Ossoff, ending Georgia Senate runoffs #gapol #gasen https://t.co/X6uNATplkl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Jon Ossoff now leads by a full percentage point over David Perdue, who hasn't yet conceded. Warnock's lead is at a pretty comfortable 1.9 points. https://t.co/C86PU62ieB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ArmandDoma @conorsen i assume they can, but they clearly don't / didn't — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@conorsen it's interesting, since this is a different kind of market than i've seen before--with a range of options, rather than just a y/n, and apparently people just bet on mean/median without buying the distribution of possible outcomes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@conorsen and it's not simply that you didn't bother--the listed prices on those four categories = .99! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@conorsen wild — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@conorsen wow and barely anyone even bought the right tail! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @TaylorPopielarz: New: Ohio Republican @RepSteveStivers tells me, “If the cabinet decided to [invoke 25th Amendment], I would not oppos… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @germanrlopez: A lot of people on the left really seem to have no idea how hugely destructive last year's riots were. People were killed… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytmike: EXCLUSIVE: Trump has suggested to aides he wants to pardon himself in the final days of his presidency, a move that would mark… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini why do you read it that way? you think democrats would have won ohio and iowa senate elections this week, or something? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, I know many were displeased w my view that Black turnout in Nov. was fairly disappointing, as their share of the vote declined to its lowest level since '06 I'll just say that this interpretation helps make sense of the Tues. result, and made it easier to see coming https://t.co/Hocp3Y43Kq — PolitiTweet.org