Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @burgessev: Manchin and Sinema were enough for McConnell to relent “Today two Democratic Senators publicly confirmed they will not vote… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@skoczela @nataliemj10 @drjjdyck my contention is that it isn't clearly actionable by any actor in the democratic process--not that a popular item in a poll must be able to be enacted as law in the democratic process — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@skoczela @nataliemj10 @drjjdyck not to make everything about the ME/NV referendum, but that's not the problem there! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 @skoczela @drjjdyck there's a ~15 point bias on *college educational attainment* in unweighted national RDD data! who knows how big the biases can be! and i'm not trying to write off all issue questions, but i see zero reason to think it's healthier than horserace and i think it could be far worse — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@skoczela @nataliemj10 @drjjdyck at best, it's real but overcome by polarizing campaigns. at worst, it's sampling error. in between, it's illusory--maybe it's acquiescence bias, maybe it's liberal questionnaire writer bias, maybe it's something else. whatever the explanation, not sure we're getting much from it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@skoczela @nataliemj10 @drjjdyck at best, it's real and overcome by campaigns. at worst, it's sampling error. in between, it's illusory--maybe it's acquiescence bias, maybe it's liberal question-writer bias, maybe it's something else. whatever the explanation, hard to see the good — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@skoczela @nataliemj10 @drjjdyck more broadly: across a swath of issues, public polling finds significant, majority to super majority support for liberal initiatives, but there is basically no real evidence outside of the polling that any of it is... real (in the sense that it is actionable and tangible) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@skoczela @nataliemj10 @drjjdyck ofc not. but i think occam's razor is that the issue never had anything like 90% support, given the outcome, the way other referendums routinely win by more, and that no one argues the GOP now has the secret to beating gun control — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@skoczela @nataliemj10 @drjjdyck if that's true, then i do think we have to ask just how well the public and the democracy was served by poll questions saying that >90% of americans support background checks with ~zero opposition--even if you think there was zero measurement error in those polls (which i dont) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@skoczela @nataliemj10 @drjjdyck if that's true, then i do think we have to ask just how well the democracy was well served by poll questions saying that >90% of americans support background checks--even if you think there was zero measurement error in those polls (which i don't) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@skoczela @nataliemj10 @drjjdyck well i think we can agree, given how other referendums play out, that background checks didn't end up at ~50 in these ~50 states because of bias toward 'no'--there was significant, informed and considered opposition — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@skoczela @nataliemj10 @drjjdyck all true. but a lot of dem referendums do better than... basically a tie in nevada and maine — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 all of this is well established; the magnitude of the effects are known, modest, and we have extremely strong priors to correct the data anyway — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@skoczela @nataliemj10 totally. there might be zero measurement error, and it's all campaign effect. but even then, what's the use of your 'background check' >90% popular poll, and the story you wrote on it, if you don't think anyone can design a background check ref/bill that's >55% support nationwide — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 LV/RV screens are a pretty minor issue (and probably brings the universe closer to the highly engaged voters who actually respond to political surveys), while basically everything else about issue polling is far harder! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 i'd guess policy issue questions of all adults are worse than election polls if judged strictly by traditional measurement error criteria, and far worse if judged by utility--whether it fulfills its stated objective — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 that's not to say 'the issue with issue polling' is nonresponse bias, though it could be--at least in part. i can think of other explanations, too. but i am not remotely convinced that we should assume 'issue polling' is healthy, just because it's harder to validate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 i don't think either of those explanations hold up. but even if they did, surely pollsters should question the utility of what they're doing if the uncontested finding of universal support for background check shrivels up to absolute irrelevance in a purple state referendum — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 https://t.co/Xw31n5sGyi https://t.co/YfaAUb1ZHC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob I also don't see why they assume they're doing a good job telling the story of recent elections, when all their issue questions keep saying the public overwhelmingly sides with democrats on everything — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's been a while since the president's party flipped a Senate seat in a midterm year in a state that the president lost in the prior presidential election (what Democrats hope to do in Ohio). I believe Coleman 2002 in MN is the last example? Bayh/Edwards did it in IN/NC in 1998 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@allahpundit The Bledsoe injury was the first game after 9/11 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @sahilkapur: This debate is changing rapidly. *David Brooks* writes that if "Republicans go into full obstruction mode, Democrats should… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AsteadWesley: "He ignored hatred" is a good way to show you ignored Aaron's actual words in favor of your own comforting myth — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbouie @Nerdomniaphile @hill_charlotte maybe i've overstated that a bit. it does have some bearing. but i do think it's fundamentally peripheral to loss of status and power in a post-industrial, multi-racial liberal society — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbouie @Nerdomniaphile @hill_charlotte it does have a bearing on the durability of democracy; it just doesn't have bearing on this particular threat to democracy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbouie @hill_charlotte no, i'm saying that other people are making a case for filibuster reform based on a (weak) argument that it will help insulate democracy against a threat posed by the GOP, and that it's not a terribly good case! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Nerdomniaphile @jbouie @hill_charlotte that you think it leads to more effective governance! just don't kid yourself that it's an effective way to insulate democracy against whatever threat the GOP poses to democracy, or a response to that threat — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbouie @hill_charlotte right, there's a pro-democracy case for filibuster reform that doesn't stem from or address the challenges raised by a protofascist GOP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@GallagherCMU @jbouie @hill_charlotte the case that eliminating the filibuster is a natural part of a plan to protect democracy against the GOP is complicated, at best — PolitiTweet.org