Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now I don't think that means the organizers, candidates, state parties, etc. are irrelevant story. After all, you do need a good sailor even if you have a strong wind at your back. But I don't think we should assume a good sailor will match their record without the record wind — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now I don't think this takes away from candidates, folks who organize and work in state parties, etc.; it's not enough to have the wind at your back, you do have to sail etc. But what happened in Georgia isn't going to happen elsewhere — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So basically the last 16 years of American politics have meant Georgia Democrats have had a stronger wind at their backs than anywhere else in the country, with the *possible* exception of Texas (where Democrats have made roughly identical gains) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

4) The nation has steadily become more diverse, which has helped Democrats more in fast growing Georgia. As you can see from this '16 chart, Georgia ranks #1 for helping Democrats in the net effect of demographic change https://t.co/Af7OuwmxAB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You can synthesize 2/3 together with this map from pre-2016. After TX, Georgia ranked #2 in the country for net-vote swing opportunity for Democrats in an era of trading white working class for college educated voters https://t.co/tvXQv2SpzY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

3) Democrats have made huge gains among white voters with a degree over the Trump era. Democrats more opportunities here than elsewhere because of a) a highly educated white population, b) a highly republican white well-educated population — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2) GOP has made huge gains over the same period with whites without a degree nationwide. This did less for the GOP in GA than anywhere that matters, bc a) Kerry only won ~20-25% of white working class in GA in '04 b) White wc voters represent a smaller share of the electorate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

1) Obama mobilized a huge and partly durable increase in Black voter turnout. That largely happened between 04 and 08; it subsided partly since 12, and it helped Ds more in GA-->30% black--than anywhere else that matters. Hence, Obama only lost by 5/8 pts in Bush+17 state — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The core of what happened in Georgia since, say, '06 has happened almost everywhere in the country. It just works out to the Democratic advantage in Georgia in a way that it hasn't elsewhere — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What happened in Georgia just can't be exported to the Midwest. That's not to say that organizing and party building is irrelevant and that there couldn't be any lessons. But the outcomes aren't replicable https://t.co/bq6acssQc9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini @NewsLambert if you really assume the polls were always off by the same amount, then he wins it in september--before that first debate and getting covid himself--even with covid — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NewsLambert @PatrickRuffini yeah there was a lot of embarrassingly bad analysis of trump's approval surge in Q1, mainly from liberal-friendly types wanting to wish it away by various means — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini that assumption may be wrong; a lot of it is just folks looking for an explanation for how trump/gop fared well, despite everything else, and resolving that 'it must have been the checks!' plays a role in the convo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini tbf, i do think the assumption that relief bill politics are so good for democrats is substantially informed by an assumption that CARES, etc. was quite good for trump in a way that wasn't understood at the time — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Interestingly, the 56-44 vote on the constitutionality of the trial is essentially identical to the cited Belknap vote, which was 37-29 (or 56 percent of the Senate) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MikaelThalen: A lawyer using Zoom had to let a judge know that he wasn’t a cat after inadvertently activating a face filter https://t.c… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @SpecialPuppy1 i do remember seeing that this was a component of the model but did 538 ever publish a full post on the matter? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jon_m_rob: Just because Republican political elites think making it harder to vote somehow benefits them doesn't automatically make it… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JMilesColeman: For 2012, North Carolina Republicans passed a very aggressive gerrymander where Obama, despite winning NC in 2008, only… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @shannonmstirone: There’s so much nuance to the Venus phosphine debate but here’s an update on what’s happening with the research. Spoil… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NYTArchives: In 1967, @nytimes reported on a brand new incentive for players to win the Super Bowl: A sterling silver football mounted… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AllMattNYT: NEW: Remember back in December when Mike Flynn was suggesting Trump impose martial law? Yeah, Trump was so impressed that h… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @IChotiner: New Interview: I talked to SF Board of Education head Gabriela Lopez about the decision to rename schools named for Lincoln… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @HendrKim: Inspired by correct maps of the People's Republic of China's territory, I made a correct map of the Netherlands. https://t.co… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nycjim: *Fox News cancels Lou Dobbs’ show. *Pro-Trump host not expected to be back on air. *Cancelation comes after $2.7 billion defam… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jakedecker @stevesingiser i don't have a position, but i don't think the case against it is particularly compelling — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jakedecker @stevesingiser well for starters they already seem to agree, to the dollar, on covid/vaccine aid — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@stevesingiser t doesn't have to waste any amount of time that the democrats deem unacceptable or compromise anything important, because democrats just go the reconciliation route as soon things aren't to their liking — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@LPDonovan yeah, and i said something similar in my thread on the vax/$ front. i meant something more specific, i guess: they don't think there's a case for bipartisanship as a positive end in itself — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@stevesingiser i mean, look democrats have all sorts of legitimate grievances with the way republicans have conducted itself over the last decade, but biden/democrats can/should make calculations about achieving their governing objectives without consideration of whether republicans deserve it — PolitiTweet.org