Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Dannyblinderman yes, the >50% decline in turnout and 95% decline in the republican (black) share of the vote was quite noticable — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @jon_m_rob @davidshor @JonHoadley (even if only very marginally) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @jon_m_rob @davidshor @JonHoadley and this basic story is the same as what we see in the states with self-reported race on the file. all of the ones that i've looked at so far show a decline in the black share of the electorate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @jon_m_rob @davidshor @JonHoadley they almost certainly do. i also think they're probably fairly consistent form cycle to cycle, and provide a relevant indicator of change over time — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @davidshor @JonHoadley and on the L2 file at least, the modeled black share of the electorate--excluding unknowns--fell from 10.2 to 9.7 percent — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @davidshor @JonHoadley just eyebaling the turnout in the city of detroit and adjacent majority black jurisdictions, it seems pretty clear that the same basic turnout pattern played out there too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @davidshor @JonHoadley just eyebaling the turnout in the city of michigan and adjacent majority black jurisdictions, it seems pretty clear that the same basic turnout pattern played out there too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cmMcConnaughy @dawnbazely @sgadarian https://t.co/jFX4VO1OnU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@brooklyncybele @steveschale @davidrlurie and i'm raising the possibility that this kind of moment may be better at mobilizing low turnout voters than having a bunch of freed up high propensity voters to knock on doors, and therefore early voting may not support your ultimate goal as clearly as you assume — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DanRosenheck (i think the tweets are pretty clearly referring to laws making it easier or harder to vote) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@brooklyncybele @steveschale @davidrlurie what if a more powerful way to drive turnout is for everyone on your block to more-or-less be voting at once, and on Election Day you're surrounded by people who are going to vote, voting, or just voted — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@steveschale @davidrlurie i don't see any credible reason to believe it. honestly i'm increasingly open to the argument that it's demobilizing to have such a large part of your base vote early — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Keep in mind that Virginia had tougher voting laws than just about anywhere: basically no early voting, photo identification laws, etc. It was arguably the single hardest state to vote in, circa 2016 So you're looking at a huge net-change in law here https://t.co/tEJC8ODO4j — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That doesn't mean the law is good or bad. It doesn't even mean that it didn't contribute to higher turnout. But it's a reminder that these laws, including HR1, don't necessarily have the existential stakes that folks on both sides of the aisle seem to assume — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Virginia's an example of how hard it can be to see any tangible consequence to changing voting laws Perhaps no state did more to make it easier to vote. It basically passed HR1. Yet the increase in turnout was average and the Black % of the electorate fell https://t.co/4IzRSi4prA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And no, I'm neither defending nor opposing the law--I'm mulling the possible consequences of one aspect of the law. If you want me to express an *opinion* of the law, one way or another, you're going to need to find another account; my job doesn't allow that! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, a lot of you are misreading this thread! I've noted a counterintuitive case that the Georgia absentee restrictions are even worse for Democrats than it looks, yet my thread is full of people asserting I'm defending the law. Let's have our morning coffee people — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(and similarly, the provision in the Georgia law that requires large precincts with long lines to take steps to add staff, equipment, or break up the precinct could be more helpful to dems than generally acknowledged) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One implication of this tweet--long lines shape turnout more than the availability of no-excuse absentee voting--is right. Whether that means Dems are better off with a mediocre no-excuse absentee system than no system is a harder question https://t.co/RhpoEzPJok — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@stphnfwlr https://t.co/E23SGUvhxF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Habit, plus it’s stigmatized on the right? Tho maybe Dem organizers will discourage it going forward, at least in Georgia — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And the GA law does quite a bit to make it harder, between ID requirements and the huge dropbox restrictions. Not hard to imagine the law trapping Dem voters in a more difficult voting method — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This supposes that no excuse absentee voting does little to nothing to increase turnout, which I think is probably right. It’s less clear whether the GA law would increase rejections by more, but it’s uncertain enough to be imaginable — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I do think there’s a credible, somewhat counterintuitive case that Democrats would have been better off if the GA GOP got rid of no excuse absentee voting altogether, v make it more difficult and risk higher rejections — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @scottbraddock: The Texas Senate rejects an amendment to affirm that eligible voters have a right to vote #TxLege — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One interesting and common theme in the replies--and it's a really tough one--is the possibility that making democracy less vulnerable to attacks on its credibility would reward those who would baselessly attack it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dicktofel 'making voting easy and accessible' is perhaps the single most important goal of an optimal voting system, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the system that makes voting easiest is the optimal system — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins @jbouie but again, the speed example was only just that--an example--of something that might be more important in a low trust society. it doesn't need to solve all election woes or something — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins @jbouie and people still talk about the king county ballots found weeks after the election in '04 WA GOV. no one would have remembered it if they were found on election night. similarly, imagine if the missing election night broward boxes were found a few weeks later and decisive! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins @jbouie we can't run the counterfactual back, of course. but it was plainly exploited by trump at the time — PolitiTweet.org