Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @UpshotNYT my standards? try publishing that adding mail voting will yield a 20 pt increase in turnout based on your scatter plot. come on. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @UpshotNYT and i don't mean to rude here, but like you offered a scatterplot and then tried to dismiss basically the whole of political science research on turnout, while assuring me that a nonexistent study will disprove it all — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @UpshotNYT as far as i can tell, everything's problematic except the research you haven't published that proves your prior — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @UpshotNYT i don't love the cost of voting index, but it is a continuous variable. before publishing this piece i looked at whether changes in the 'cost of voting index' predict turnout changes. there's no statistically significant effect (tho coefficient is negative, at -0.27 pts) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @UpshotNYT if you add research to the broad body of evidence already published--which as you said, basically finds null to limited turnout effects, with some outliers either way--i'm happy to revisit my conclusion. but i don't think the scatterplot gets you there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @UpshotNYT if you add research to the broad body of evidence already published--which as you said, basically finds null to limited turnout effects, with some outliers either way--i'm happy to revisit my conclusion. but i don't think the scatterplot gets you there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @UpshotNYT the piece is pinned on a broad characterization of the research, which it seems we agree on (including on the low turnout election point, which is mentioned). it draws out the texas study because of its recency, sophistication and relevance, not because it depends on it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @UpshotNYT i think the piece is pinned on the broad characterization of the research, which it appears we agree on, but it draws out the texas study because of its recency and relevance, not because it depends on it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @UpshotNYT to my mind, that's basically in keeping with the conclusion of the article and the more rigorous research — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @UpshotNYT and what does it look like if you switch the DV to change in turnout, and the IV to change in mail voter share — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @UpshotNYT (but i also think the preponderance of evidence overwhelmingly suggests that the marginal effect of adding even vote by mail is nowhere near the same as that simple regression) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @UpshotNYT vote by mail is not the same as no-excuse absentee voting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh i don't think any analyst would have meaningfully altered their prediction for the composition of the electorate in Georgia in 2022 as a result of this law or its fallout — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh perhaps, though i don't think any analyst would have meaningfully altered their prediction for the composition of the electorate in Georgia in 2022 as a result of this law or its fallout — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh the republicans may have shot themselves in the foot in some respects, but i don't know if that makes it a 'win-win' for dems either — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh but given what happened in 2020, i don't see how anyone could expect the dems to brush off the fact that the state leg plausibly empowered itself to take a shot at 'finding' the 11k votes at the expense of the very person who declined to do exactly that — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh there's truth to that; dems certainly didn't love kemp running elections. and similarly, perhaps a gop run elections board can already take a jab at tossing out absentee ballots based on the kinds of allegations trump raised in 20 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh ultimately, there are a lot of possible levers to pull here and i don't think anyone has fully thought through the extent that you can misuse this power--or what you could get away with if you tried to do so — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh i think it's pretty untested how this plays out, fwiw. In addition to certification, these boards hear eligibility challenges--like all those allegations about dead, moved, etc. people voting in Georgia. the opportunity to abuse this is obvious, though courts could check it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@hill_charlotte yeah i mean, even all of that wouldn't be enough, i don't think! but i do think ending gerrymandering/new states etc. would have a more material effect on GOP electoral viability/chances than changes to voting laws — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@electionsmith i think that's a totally valid perspective, but my job is different: when political actors or readers are operate under erroneous assumptions about elections, and craft their strategies/views/behavior based on it, then it becomes my responsibility to disabuse them — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@electionsmith and some that seem most immediately relevant (like florida early voting in '12) also seem consistent with my broad contention here, that there aren't existential risks at stake (obama did win florida in '12, after all) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@electionsmith what specifically would you point me to here? some of these seem immaterial--and others, like rejection of mail ballots, may suggest that certain voting opportunities (like mail voting) may not be so good for democrats — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@hill_charlotte yeah, i definitely don't think HR1 is an existential risk to the GOP. not at all. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@hill_charlotte of course; it's just a single anecdote. but if you're one of many people who assumes that these kind of legal changes pose existential risks to either party, i think you can look at this and pretty instantly see that it's not quite so obvious — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jonathanvswan: When @SpeakerBoehner was recording his audiobook I was told by sources that during these wine-soaked sessions he would d… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@hill_charlotte looking at the cost of voting index--which i don't love tbh--virginia had the second largest reduction of cost of voting this cycle, trailing washington (which doesn't make a ton of sense to me tbh, but i think the point stands) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@hill_charlotte I was thinking more in terms of one-cycle change--making it easier, as in increasing ease--than saying that it's the very easiest state to vote in — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Dannyblinderman I am not concerned that the intent of Georgia Republicans will be obscured. I think that's received 99.9% of the tweets and coverage. But I don't think that obviates the need--and importance--of accurately analyzing the consequences of these various laws — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @jon_m_rob @davidshor @JonHoadley we can; and we can also see with that data that the black share of the electorate dropped, while the white-black turnout gap grew — PolitiTweet.org