Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This map is starting to look familiar (esp with WA/OR still limiting eligibility to 60+) https://t.co/t71uJw1Ln7 https://t.co/zzNvp0KzM2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@lxeagle17 (and to be clear, the theoretical edge would be the expected if now diminished democratic gain in a 100% turnout election) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@lxeagle17 the empirical answer is that the democrats don't benefit from higher turnout, because higher turnout can be driven by higher participation on either side, and American elections don't have high enough turnout to ever really ensure that Democrats lock-in their theoretical edge — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@lxeagle17 the theoretical answer, based on polls/voter files, etc., is that the democrats still theoretically benefit a little bit--perhaps even as little as a point or two--from higher turnout, though with considerable geographic variation and to a lesser extent than before Trump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@lxeagle17 there are two basically ways of answering the question. one is theoretical: is the nonvoter population more or less democratic than the voting population? the other is empirical: does higher or lower turnout help democrats? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @xenocryptsite: New post on revisiting the famous post-2016 "economic issues vs. social issues" scatterplot. https://t.co/NxqiUvfgf6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: You all should read @michaelcrowley on Taiwan https://t.co/n15boIhKfL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@michaelmorley11 @tkdylan @SeanTrende registration or identification requirements don't seem quite like a qualification in the same sense of term limits or voting age, etc; it seems more like an aspect of election administration/security than an inherent restriction on eligibility. felons seem different though — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @michaelmorley11 and therefore we basically have a recent, implicit 9-0 supreme court case that the power to draw lines = a time/place/manner regulation, or at least one that the congress could claim as there's bc of 'such' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @michaelmorley11 and my understanding of the debate in arizona, for ex, was that everyone agreed redistricting power fell to the legislature under the election clause, but that 'legislature' could be interpreted more generally as legislative power, not specifically the body — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @michaelmorley11 my read was that: --state leg, as opposed to say a voter auth commission, can draw lines because it's an election clause power (time/place/manner) --congress can do any 'such' regulation that state leg can --therefore, congress can draw lines — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @michaelmorley11 i just thought the whole basis for the view that state legislatures, as opposed to say state constitutional amendment mandated commissions, was in the assumption that state legislatures are empowered to conduct redistricting based on the election clause — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tkdylan @SeanTrende i think that's a plausible distinction but i don't think it's in keeping with court precedent fwiw https://t.co/Tf7Ws5pRXl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @michaelmorley11 isn't the 'such regulations' line almost more important on redistricting commissions than the definition of 'manner'; if state legislatures can redistrict based on the election clause, which is my understanding, then doesn't congress have the same power ipso facto? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende what are some of the provisions that you're most skeptical about on this question — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @allahpundit: https://t.co/ndDEs5EPvN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MarkMazzettiNYT: This is an extraordinary story https://t.co/YgZohwB3Dq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jon_m_rob: .@Nate_Cohn really drove home for me something that has unsettled me for a bit about HR1 but I couldn't quite place. It's a… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rickhasen i'm not a lawyer, of course. and obviously the range of potential issues greatly exceeds certification. but starting with that narrow area, it just seems hard for me to believe that there's nothing that can be done, whether in terms of standards or structure — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@yousuf_tw i think that's an aspect of it, but i do think the law's supporters also earnestly support its provisions on the merits and believe that it would create a more lower-case 'd' democratic government and society — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nwfisch it does--protecting and improving democracy aren't the same thing — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If I had to add one thing, it would be that the strategy for passing the bill--to say it's a necessary to save democracy--has faltered in part because the bill was not crafted with the goal of protecting democracy, even if elements of it may serve that objective — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If I had to add one thing, it would be that the strategy for passing the bill--to say it's a necessary t save democracy--has faltered in part because the bill was not crafted with the goal of protecting democracy, even if elements of it may serve that objective — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A useful piece on the state of HR1, and the many challenges it's facing at the moment https://t.co/Zsb2EC3oeg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict @mattyglesias yeah looking at it i think you still can get two majority black CDs there; would require some generous assumptions about whether macomb can support a dem — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict @mattyglesias tbh i'm not even sure if it's possible to draw two black majority districts in detroit at all at this point, but i think you can still get two into the mid-40s and protect all four suburban dems — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict @mattyglesias and that's to say nothing of the many minority-opportunity districts that might emerge with partisan fairness criteria in AL/AR/LA/SC/GA/TX, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict @mattyglesias i can think of cases where there's tension between an existing district and various *nonpartisan* criteria, like compactness in IL4 or something. but i can't think of a case where it's at odds with partisan fairness — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict @mattyglesias is there any cd you can think of where there's obvious tension between criteria for partisan fairness and protecting the ability of nonwhite voters to select the candidate of their choosing? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JgRestore its' a separate piece https://t.co/ibJ0BovSrN — PolitiTweet.org