Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd a very minor thought, fwiw: i interpreted 'fancy colleges' to refer to a certain kind of elite and often private institution, not to mean that the professors are rich and fancy themselves — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende (of course, this doesn't prove that shifts are attributable to improved estimation, as one might ordinary assume. it could be the opposite in this case) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende the magnitude seems fairly typical fwiw https://t.co/dk3mR4uZST — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende i think i saw this one in stranger things — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If it is true, there are also interesting questions about the how/why. Is the mainstream Dem party just doing a decent job of balancing its base and electoral appeal? Is it just another example of weak parties? How much is about conservative media? Etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's interesting to me in a few respects. One obvious question is simply to what extent it's true? To what extent are Democrats defined by their activist class? Is the GOP getting off easy? And so on. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The overarching theme is more interesting than the anti-woke part: the idea that Dems can't define themselves or their opposition, so mainstream Dems get defined by a powerless but vocal and tone-deaf activist class while the GOP gets off easy https://t.co/mASosnGVAW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten @KSoltisAnderson better for democrats than heading into today! i thought one interesting if minor electoral college story line was going to be that nevada could now break the pa/mi/wi + clinton state path for democrats — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One example of how it gets slightly tougher for Dems: it is no longer true that whoever wins three of PA/MI/AZ/WI/GA wins the presidency, as was true in 2020, provided other states vote as they did. Now, Dems can't win with three smaller states--MI/WI/AZ or GA/WI/AZ--alone. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Reapportionment bring huge changes in the Electoral College math: Biden wins 303 electoral votes, down from 306. Even so, worth noting that the already significant relative Democratic disadvantage in the Electoral College still gets slightly worse — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@KSoltisAnderson @270toWin https://t.co/oUojlSGxnE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: Wow. Minnesota beat out New York for the 435th seat in the House by 89 (!) people. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

True! Some thought AL would lose one, rather than NY lose two https://t.co/mRw7Ols4Ah — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Less change in Census reapportionment than expected: TX +2 FL, CO, MT, NC, OR +1 CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA, WV -1 Winners v. expectations: MN, NY, RI Losers v. expectations: AZ, FL, TX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @farnazfassihi: My story on the extraordinary Zarif leaked tape: Revolutionary Guards Corps call the shots, overruling many government d… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JMilesColeman does Trump win if greater VA if new DC also gets arlington/alexandria back — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @micahanglais: Democrats have started using racial justice framing to promote their progressive policies (eg, student debt relief is goo… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ATomEAtkins it's only the key if you take for granted what barely happened in 2020: that the majority wins the institutions intended to represent the majority. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The debate about majoritarianism is interesting and all, but the focus on the court/Senate misses the central issue in some ways: there's no majoritarian aspect of the US system today https://t.co/OQnNkL1ZnW https://t.co/Y01zMPlzIw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ADC_PHL @rickhasen it is not, and the proof is that the measures to defend against one of the attacks--voter suppression--do not defend against the other--election subversion — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ADC_PHL @rickhasen many of the defenders will be outraged. they think they're charging into battle to defend their homes. in fact, they're at risk of being badly outflanked. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ADC_PHL @rickhasen let's imagine there's a literal war on democracy. if all of the defenders of democracy rush to the wrong battle, then yes they will need to be waved off and told to go somewhere else — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ADC_PHL @rickhasen it's important to distinguish elements of a 'combined plan' to identify what's important, what's not, and develop a response that meets the challenge. the hasan piece illuminates the stakes clearly — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ADC_PHL @rickhasen no, it's extremely serious — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ADC_PHL @rickhasen they are analytically and substantively distinct, requiring separate legal remedies. while it could potentially have been fine to mush it all together, the consequence was that the far more significant issue was ignored--as the Hasan piece notes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ADC_PHL @rickhasen no, i said the restrictions on voting access, especially by mail, weren't a big deal i said election subversion *was* the big deal, with a thread/article of its own. i don't blame you for not distinguishing the two, but that is why it's overlooked https://t.co/ibJ0BovSrN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A couple of other nexus points that deserve thought: --certification issues, potentially even including federal involvement --preventing mediocre allegations, like lists of 'dead' people, from becoming a pretextual basis for eligibility challenges or invalidating results — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Relatedly, my piece on the issue from a few weeks back https://t.co/ibJ0BovSrN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My sense is that this is probably only the start of the conversation on how to address these kind of issues. Progressives have spent years thinking about expanding voter access. Few people have spent time any time thinking about election subversion — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My sense is that this is probably only the start of the conversation on how to address these kind of issues. Progressives have spent years thinking about expanding voter access. Few people have spent time any time thinking about election sub version — PolitiTweet.org