Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @RonBrownstein That said, I don't really think the major election subversion threats depend on a majority of both Houses to select a dubious electoral slate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @RonBrownstein I don't think that any plan to protect democracy through perpetual Democratic control of Congress is really worth taking seriously, but yeah it's certainly possible Dems could hold the House by the margin of independent commissions in 2024, — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @RonBrownstein i'm not sure i follow the context here. I do think independent redistricting commissions are significant. But I don't think it's a particularly great way to address election subversion, and, as I think your second question implies, the Congress can do a lot about it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NickRiccardi i do think congress could legislate on certification; i don't think congress can appoint electors; i don't think congress can bind a future congress — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NickRiccardi congress can basically write the rules for federal elections — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I've seen nothing that's really deliberately focused on this stuff (though there are a few provisions in HR1 that incidentally address a few subversion issues, fwiw) https://t.co/PcymzYCPJR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another thing missing is gerrymandering. Unlike, say, limiting mail voting, gerrymandering more fundamentally threatens to lower-case 'd' democratic values while hurting Ds quite a bit. Yet, the word appears once in the article, as it's been overshadowed by the access debate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One missed connection here is that HR1/HR4 doesn't do much to address to election subversion. These are reform bills; they just weren't conceived to secure the fundamentals of democracy, and the politics around these bills might be quite a bit different if they were. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

According to the article, Biden administration appears to believe that the GOP voter suppression laws, however odious, don't really pose a meaningful threat to democracy or Democrats. It does appear to take the threat of election subversion--like refusal to certify--seriously — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Based on this @RonBrownstein piece, it seems the Biden admin's lack of emphasis on HR1/HR4 reflects their evaluation--and in my view, an accurate evaluation--of the relative threats democracy and Democrats. https://t.co/3PaBuLgbDh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jon_m_rob: In fact, in new research from @sysilviakim, examining Orange County's implementation of AVR, she finds AVR boosts turnout am… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @OHPredictive: #OHPIPowerRanking Top 10: Ranking No. 1 among all registered voters is AZ Secretary of State @katiehobbs Overall: #1 Na… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @qdbui: In today’s story I explore two really intriguing observations about our recovery: 1) New businesses seem to spike after each rou… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nickconfessore: Big @WSJ scoop on illness among Wuhan lab researchers just before outbreak. https://t.co/MCWPrlc16V — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @charlie_smart_: Andrew Yang is leading the NYC mayoral primary field in the number of New Yorkers who have donated to his campaign. We… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @cwarshaw @davidshor @MarkMellman this is how you know shor has really made it. the ggmonsters are nowhere in sight — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @cwarshaw @davidshor @MarkMellman this is how you know shor has really made it. the ggmonsters are nowhere in site — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini though interestingly that's necessarily not the expected outcome from partisan nonresponse bias — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PatrickRuffini: If we're thinking of Trumpiness on a spectrum, rather than as all-or-nothing, here's what the Funnel of Trumpiness look… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mattyglesias: No comment https://t.co/jGCpqnTP3h — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@KevinReuning @davidshor @jon_m_rob (a fair question but fwiw i've seen plenty of academic papers that don't really deal take spatial autocorrelation in election results very seriously, and just add demographic controls too!) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jon_m_rob @KevinReuning and by the way, i do buy that the likeliest explanation here is that kenosha protests hurt biden, based on these sort of charts! but i think the 'what about gary, in' critique, based on the residual map, is a serious one and i don't think it's really fixed here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jon_m_rob @KevinReuning is this kenosha county municipalities with non-kenosha counties? i do think that would tend to make the cluster standout even more than either municipalities only or counties only, fwiw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jon_m_rob @KevinReuning i think it's semi-persuasive, but it's not a great way around the aforementioned spatial autocorrelation problem. if we choose a 1000 random points in the Midwest, how often do we get an effect like that? county residuals map makes it seem like it could be fairly often! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I mention this, again, bc many people have fatalistically tweeted at me some version of 'gop will overturn 2024.' I don't see how anyone can be sure they're wrong. Yet this article nearly all the thought given to the issue--and it's a start best https://t.co/ICGKtqa9Gc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And neither really addresses election subversion--the risk that officials might use their varied powers to decertify, overturn, or invalidate votes or election results https://t.co/iUr7ZOcwej — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@burnowt the other side of the equation is important too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's not to say that they don't need to change. Maybe they do. Maybe they got the best of both worlds in 20, by enjoying Trump's turnout, running as a check on Biden, and having a different brand than Trump. I could come other reasons, of course. Just an ex. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think this winds up as an important twist on the 'why won't the GOP rebrand/autopsy/ditch Trump?' question. Many have noted the GOP nearly won in 2020, but if the non-Trump GOP did enough to win a trifecta, at least on a 2022 map, why would it think it needs to do anything? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And if the conventional wisdom is right about how redistricting will go for Democrats, and I believe it is, then even that national margin of victory in the House vote probably wouldn't be enough to hold the chamber in 2022 — PolitiTweet.org