Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I doubt anything can get 60 votes right now. But if there's any chance to get Manchin off the filibuster, it would be far, far, far likelier to happen with something that's narrowly tailored to protect democracy than a bill like HR1 https://t.co/NolCuUF9Zm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well I doubt anything can really attract 60 votes right now. But I think that if Manchin is could ever move off the filibuster, that it's far, far likelier to happen for a bill that's narrowly tailored to protect democracy than something like HR1 https://t.co/NolCuUnyAM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Embedded in the letter, however, is the key framework that might help Congress craft a law that's both more efficacious and has a better chance of passing: minimum standards to protect what's necessary for democracy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The letter recognizes the preeminent threat of election subversion, advocates a comprehensive federal response, and notes that the current proposals are insufficient. But it doesn't quite state the legislative implication: a totally different proposal is probably needed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's a new letter from 100 political scientists on the threat to democracy, and the need for federal election standards It may be too oblique to reshape the debate, but it does nudge the conversation toward the most salient issues https://t.co/O3vMtUIjzn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: Trump has been telling a number of people he’s in contact with that he expects he will get reinstated by August (no that isn… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In a way, Russia was the generous explanation — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JustinGlawe: Here is video of former general and National Security Advisor Mike Flynn calling for a Myanmar-like coup to replace the si… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: This shouldn’t get overlooked. There were a zillion fauxtrage articles and tweets from Trump allies, claiming tear gas wasn’… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, sometimes transient circumstances can create lasting shifts in partisanship. My instinct is that this won't be one of those cases, and the data Enten cites would be consistent with that, but we'll have to wait and see to be sure — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are a lot of different theories why Trump gained with Latinos. I'm pretty agnostic on their relative significance but my guess is they all play a role, given the size of his gains But very few of those circumstances seem sure to endure in 2024 https://t.co/TIMTtagRRf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SeanTrende: So we’re having a twitter meltdown over the Vice President telling people to enjoy the long weekend instead of having a tw… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytimes: Faye Schulman was spared by German officers on the condition that she would photograph them. She would ultimately use those ph… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NathanKalmoe: The Twitter mood isn't great today, so this can't hurt. Here's Figure 5.5 as @LilyMasonPhD & I finish final book edits. S… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor and looking at it on the voter file, the group that fits those criteria is D+1, 39-38 by registration — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pleizar @davidshor ~ +/- 6 (n=254) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor obviously this is an imperfect way into it, but the subgroup of voters who: voted in 2020 but weren't registered in 16, but were voting eligible in 2016 is a Trump group in our fairly Dem-leaning polling of PA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor but it's the subset of those voters who would have voted in 16 if only they had the opportunity on election day, and i think that's probably a gop leaning subgroup — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @eitanhersh @RonBrownstein to be clear, I do think gerrymandering and various electoral biases add up to a threat to democracy, albeit a less severe one than subversion right now. I think a version of eitan’s tweet that said voting restrictions instead of gerrymandering would come closer to what I’ve said — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor would you really guess that SDR would help clinton in PA/MI? that's not what my guess would be tbh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor even stipulating an above average photo id effect, i don't think that gets clinton to 270 (pa doesn't have one, mi allows the affidavit) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor i don't think it's inconceivable--the election's close enough. i also think it's conceivable that it helps trump by .4 in some of these states where we've learned the bottom of the electorate is quite trumpy, like MI/PA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are all kinds of plausible reasons why Democrats--or anyone--might support the proposed changes. I just don't think it's credible to argue the proposals in question will either moderate or defeat the GOP https://t.co/KSfdK6PIzK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Finally, I'll end on a provocative note: it seems just as likely to me that a less biased electoral system would shift many Democrats to the left, mitigating the incentive for Republicans to moderate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the GOP is a sectarian party, we wouldn't expect moderation; it only represents the sect. A loss of electoral viability could just as easily turn it against democracy or continued coexistence altogether, and there's all kinds of conservative rhetoric to that effect — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But even then, just how much would GOP behavior really change? I just don't know. They don't seem very responsive to adverse shifts in places like CO, VA, AZ, GA, for instance. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Senate, OTOH, doesn't even have a radical solution. Even adding DC/PR/VI/NMI/AS/GU would still leave the chamber with an R+3 Republican advantage v. the current popular vote. You'd probably have to send it the way of the House of Lords, risking secession or civil war, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a result, changing GOP electoral incentives requires a lot more than what's on the table. It probably starts with the Electoral College, whether it's NPV or proportional EC allocation. In the House, you probably need something like MMD + RCV, or even a multiparty system — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In contrast, the presidency is the spot where it's easiest to moderate the GOP in response to electoral incentives, but it's the place where the Democratic proposals do the least — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the end, only the sliver of Republicans running in blue seats have an incentive to moderate. That certainly matters! But it won't redefine the GOP in their image; the overwhelming majority of House Republicans would still, say, back the Big Lie — PolitiTweet.org