Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NathanKalmoe to be fair, i believe this shows... 51% Obama supporters very confident v. 50% McCain supporters 43% Obama supporters somewhat confident v. 41% McCain supporters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: The info flow/expectation setting w medium info Ds on this was problematic @MTPFirstRead > “HR 1 designed as a messaging b… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The only thought toward a plan B seems to be the John Lewis VRA, as suggested by Manchin, but that mainly seems to reflect that it's a default alternative that's already on the table. Manchin looked at HR1, recoiled, looked around, and pointed at the other thing he saw. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What's astonishing--though not really surprising--is that there doesn't seem to have been any Dem/progressive thought toward a plan B, even though plan A has appeared dead for months https://t.co/hlY0v73dOC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And if you're hoping to one day heighten the contradictions of the filibuster in the eys of Manchin, the failure of the "the nonpartisan elections act of 2021" is the sort of thing that at least might have some 1/1000 chance of doing it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

"Nonpartisan" is an obvious framework for crafting provisions against gerrymandering, subversion, and to insulate the law--to an extent--against the allegation that it's partisan, which Manchin seems to care quite a bit about https://t.co/yGivG3gKdl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @bubbaprog: Simone Biles, in extreme slow motion. https://t.co/d43PPTg87O — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@allahpundit as written? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On the other side, I totally disagree that it's 'politically southern.' It's voting patterns are much more reminiscent of the northern industrial/resource extraction zone of PA/eastern OH. It didn't vote D until 1932. It didn't swing R in 48 or after. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Hopptimist you can argue it that way, too! i'm just saying it, alone, doesn't answer the question — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(the point, of course, is not that everything that's appalachian is southern--see OH/PA, ex.; it's just that i don't see how 'it's appalachian' is sufficient to prove it's not southern, unless you'd like to boot eastern TN, etc. out of the south. you need an additional argument) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@databyler would you say that if eastern TN had successfully seceded from TN as a union state, as many sought at the time? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think this is a legitimately tough question, but one argument that surprises me is some version of 'Appalachia isn't the South.' I don't really see how anyone can sustain the argument that eastern TN, western NC, northern AL/GA, etc., aren't southern — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JacobRubashkin surely you wouldn't consider Eastern TN to be a non-southern state if it had successfully obtained its independence as a union state for the same reasons, as many sought at the time — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Is West Virginia a Southern state? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @pkcapitol: Today is 2-month anniversary of @Sen_JoeManchin oped in WaPo telling the world he wouldn't blow up filibuster (and therefore… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@richardmskinner @davidshor @PropterMalone @xenocryptsite @PoliticalKiwi @SpecialPuppy1 @realDonaldScion if trump had won the presidency, democrats could have very realistically dreamed about flipping PA, WI, NC and at least one (and easily more) of the five TX, IA, OH, FL seats up by 2024 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @PropterMalone @xenocryptsite @PoliticalKiwi @SpecialPuppy1 @realDonaldScion right: the real democratic problem in the senate, at least in terms of moving the median senator left of manchin, is that biden holds the presidency — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MJRosenbergDad @davidshor @PropterMalone @xenocryptsite @PoliticalKiwi @SpecialPuppy1 @realDonaldScion fair; just popped up on my feed now for some reason — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @PropterMalone @xenocryptsite @PoliticalKiwi @SpecialPuppy1 @realDonaldScion i think what you really mean is 'given that biden holds the presidency' and dems can't flip more seats for a while? bc biden won 25 states and the democrats can realistically hope for a median senator who is basically biden — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The GOP success at gerrymandering state legislatures, with large numbers of districts, should be a reminder that expanding the House doesn't constrain gerrymandering nearly, nearly as much as many people in my replies tend to assume https://t.co/OZBChnmCRJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @pylekeyton: Second study (national sample) used a 3rd party evaluation experiment to examine how Whites *perceive* the fairness of Blac… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @pylekeyton: Our paper "Racial Resentment, Prejudice, and Discrimination" (w/ Twitterless #GregHuber) is now officially published @The_J… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @pylekeyton: In national sample, White Republicans were 40 points more likely to be resentful than White Democrats (72 vs. 33%), but onl… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Instead, my replies are all like--but the GOP won't compromise! Which, yeah, that's almost certainly right. But you don't really have a choice at this point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And conducting a bipartisan process, that seems credible to Manchin et al, will require you to have some sort of theory for what a bipartisan bill would look like or ought to look like. Those theories are all hard to imagine! They're all implausible. You'd still have to do it... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Even that may not be enough, to be sure. But this idea that Manchin will kill the filibuster on an activist backed bill, without trying negotiation, etc., is just plainly ridiculous — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I have no idea what the odds are that 50 Dems would give up the filibuster to pass a voting rights bill. Maybe it's 1:1000. 1:million. Who knows. But I think it's pretty obvious that 50 Dems aren't giving up on the filibuster until *after* a serious bipartisan process has failed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The replies are interesting as always--lol--but it is worth reiterating something that's very obvious: the case for a 'bipartisan' process isn't just about the possibility of actually getting 60 votes (which as i said seems extremely unlikely), it's also about 50 Democrats — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JakeSherman: The Capitol insurrection was five months ago today. — PolitiTweet.org