Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview @jonathanchait alternately, stealing an election is a far, far bigger deal than anything else he's ever done, and his 2020 conduct betrays some indication that he knows that — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview @jonathanchait or to be blunt about it: i think mcconnell's a vote against election subversion in 2024, stipulating that the states send a democratic electoral college majority complying with safe harbor, no dueling slates, etc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview @jonathanchait now i can see you don't see it that way, but i do think that's how republicans see/saw it--and it's certainly how he explained it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview @jonathanchait when he saw the issue as having the highest and most fundamental stakes, mcconnell voted with the rule of law when he saw it as purely symbolic and political, he voted the other way — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview @jonathanchait i have the exact opposite interpretation — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@brandon_wallis @AdamSerwer ...it's not the argument — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonathanchait @jbview although i see the logic of this case, it's obviously not the only way to interpret the incentives and it's entirely at odds with the way republicans, most publicly mcconnell, handled the two situations — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview well the whole framing of the thread is around the states being more likely. by any measure, the congress is far away in comparison. for all we know, the states are already there. even if not, it only takes one gov / sos election in some cases to create a crisis — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DouthatNYT and i didn't see your second tweet, but i don't think you necessarily wind up with competing slates in this case given the potential for full gop control of state government — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview i can't judge how likely it is that there will be 15+ more votes in 2024. but there's no comparison between that and the states, where we could be one gov, secretary of state, board of election spot, etc., away from a crisis — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview again, i think 'dismal' needs to be judged against the baseline for this question: is there a majority of congress to subvert. there were 35 nos on the commission, far short of a majority, which is plainly a far more difficult vote than overturning a result — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@AdamSerwer we appear to be fairly far from it happening in the congress, today. that does not mean we can't get there, but it is an order of magnitude different than in the states, where it may be just one governor, secretary of state election, or state board appointment of dozens — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@AdamSerwer that position involves a *relative* diminution of the threat from congress. it does not involve saying it doesn't exist — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@AdamSerwer all i'm saying in this thread, which no one has actually attempted to dispute, is that the states are the far likelier locus for a subversion attempt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview as a result, i find it very hard to think that the subversion attempt is likeliest to originate in congress — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview while, in contrast, i think there's absolutely no reason to have even this level of confidence about every governor, state leg, election board, or secretary of state — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview i suppose it depends on framing. it's not promising compared to where you'd like to be, but i don't think any vote supports the contention that we're close to 50% of either house of congress voting to subvert an election on a pretextual basis — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview things could always change, but i don't see a serious case that we're near this point today — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dluippold you need a majority of members of both houses, not most members of one party in one house — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DouthatNYT the most recent case--NC09 post-18--involved the state board calling for a new election, without any state leg. involvement to my knowledge. that isn't a remedy in this case — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DouthatNYT what happens if they don't certify? honestly i don't know, and most people i ask don't know or deflect by saying it may vary by state. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DouthatNYT i'm not sure i agree. at the very least, i'm not sure you're right. most obviously, governor approval is central in the electoral count act. in other states, the secretary of state/board are supposed to certify — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DouthatNYT forgot to tag you https://t.co/VcSvSlw8Uu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should note that I sometimes see conservatives arguing that the only Republicans who would overturn an election are those without the power to actually do so, but I don't see any reason to assume that's true going forward, given how the issue has played — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a result, subversion seems likeliest to emerge at the state, not federal level. Congress wouldn't overturn a democratic result; they'd *need* to overturn a subverted one. Maybe they would, but even then we'd still have a true democratic crisis, more like 1876 than 2020 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Certainly one could become a Secretary of State, a Governor, or perhaps a few could be a majority of a county or state elections board. Maybe even a whole state legislature. And if this happened in any key state, there would be a real risk of a crisis — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But while it's true that there's no congressional majority for subversion, it's much harder to be sure that there couldn't be subversion-ready officials in a position of power *somewhere* in the country — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In 2020, there were just 7 Senate votes to overturn PA. Opposition to 1/6 commission got 35 votes--a way, way easier vote than overturning an election result. That's not to say it's a-ok, but I don't see the case that we're close to a congressional majority for subversion — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As Ross notes, we're still pretty far from the point where the House/Senate seem likely to just vote to overturn an election on a pretextual basis, even if the GOP gains a majority. There are too many Republicans who just don't seem poised to go along with it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think this is worth a read, though I'll take this as an opportunity to note that the focus on Congress as the site of election subversion doesn't seem quite right to me https://t.co/Y3OOaaLB4U — PolitiTweet.org