Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 @brianros1 and if anything, i think it's inconsistent with your critique, because it argues that something other than civil rights drove realignment in the later 20th century — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 @brianros1 i think the article you provided attempts to complciate the conventional view of southern strategy, by noting that subsequent efforts to win southerners with culture war politics was necessary for a true GOP stranglehold. i don't disagree with that — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 @brianros1 i think any discussion of civil rights, in context of the mid/late 20th *realignment*, is unequivocally about the civil rights movement and the nixon/reagan southern strategies — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 @brianros1 honestly i don't think you've been corrected because your tweet is so vague as to be false. it doesn't even mention west virginia for four tweets. it makes it sound like my telling of US history ignores civil rights, rather than civil rights wasn't the driver of WV-->GOP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 @brianros1 it's not, unless you'd like to argue that trump winning iowa was about civil rights and the mid/late 20th century realignment on that issue. i'd say that was ludicrous, but it seems totally in keeping with your argument — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@brianros1 @nataliemj10 saying 'race is a factor' is vastly different than 'civil rights' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 @BrendanNyhan it's not simply that it's not specific to WV. it's that WV isn't even in its concept of the southern strategy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 @BrendanNyhan this article is mitigating civil rights, in favor of a longer term cultural story, on the same grounds that i am. and WV defied this pattern longer than any actual southern state — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 @BrendanNyhan second, this article doesn't even count WV as part of the south, based on its claim that clinton won 5 southern states. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 @BrendanNyhan first, your tweet was about civil rights. this article points out that the forces that led to regional realignment were more than civil rights, with religion and culture ultimately being necessary to secure GOP dominance of the region. i think that's fair — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 @BrendanNyhan i don't see this as supporting your critique, tbh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @nataliemj10 if you mean that in terms of downstream effects (like a more southern gop/liberal dem party took stances on issues that ultimately meant WV would be with dems), then sure but if it takes 32 years to see an effect, it's not reasonable to suppose it's a direct effect — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 but now all you're doing is closing your eyes at damning evidence to the contrary, without having introduced any of your own, and saying you don't want to hear about it! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 i actually did have some sympathy! it's a fair critique if you assume, erroneously but understandably, that WV followed a different pattern. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 uh no. being red from 48-88 map doesn't prove it's part of the southern strategy. but being blue from 48-88 means that civil rights isn't the story of WV's realignment to being red — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 wait i'm less sympathetic after remembering that this chart is in the story https://t.co/4vNYz0QhZy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 anyway, i know you have this all figured out from the original tweet so i won't go on! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 here is 48 to 88 https://t.co/IKj8cQHi3V — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 WV was an outlier from the south throughout the whole period. Here, for instance, is the swing from 48 to 68, where blue is a Dem gain in major party vote. https://t.co/HL6qF9fk9C — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EnlightenedDINO idk, seemed weird to me; my thread assumes it would be — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't see Manchin giving up on the filibuster so easily, of course. But for progressives, these kind of laws could highlight how inaction leads to more partisan outcomes, rather than encourage bipartisanship in election administration — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another example might be to subject state election laws passed without bipartisan support--say, at least 20% of all major parties, to again align with the filibuster--to VRA preclearance and new standards for partisan fairness — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In this proposal, the threshold for overturning an electoral slate would increase to a supermajority--though one could choose 60 votes, to make the tension obvious. Today, a vote to overturn a presidential election wouldn't be subject to a filibuster, and only require 50 votes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you're looking for a strategy that might heighten the contradictions of the filibuster for Manchin, this style of proposal--laws that mandate supermajorities/bipartisanship where only majorities are needed today--is a clever route https://t.co/HEWOjIM9F7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @billscher: After my little exchange with @Nate_Cohn, I tried to answer to question what legislative remedies could neutralize the threa… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AOC: Yep https://t.co/FIZbZ914ku — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/JTkmXH5eht — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Tylerjoelb: Testimony going off the rails now. Tenpenny is claiming there is metal in the vaccine that causes forks to stick to your… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mikiebarb: @Nate_Cohn https://t.co/veiSCYpraZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Also an important theory, though the size of the GOP offers on infrastructure/stimulus make me think there's something more going on https://t.co/SAxCMgfFw2 — PolitiTweet.org