Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten fair, though i'd be interested to see it updated! in general, everyone's decision to publish a simulated instant runoff, rather than various head-to-heads, has deprived us of good info on the relative 'electability' of the not-Adams candidates — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten idk if wiley is that out there. do we have any wiley v adams head to head? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @sahilkapur: .@ReverendWarnock: “I have never been opposed to voter ID.” https://t.co/NXcuppxthJ https://t.co/8XY4Yb20By — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @allahpundit: from last september 25: trump pledges to make juneteenth federal holiday in bid for black voters https://t.co/gHzGS1ZB20 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: I mean it almost feels like the freak out about it this week isn’t on the level https://t.co/A30zOUWkK7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@LucioMM1 perhaps i missed those, but this is the first such analysis i've seen — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A small but perhaps still telling indication of Trump's strength among irregular votes: Trump did a net-9 points better among voters who only voted in the presidential race in Maricopa County https://t.co/teB0hhBXqR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The only thing it resembles, IMO, is the GOP repeal-and-replace push, except that reconciliation doesn't work in this case — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And it's worth reflecting on how odd this is. I can't really think of any serious legislative effort that's proceeded like this, even though most serious efforts nonetheless fail to attract sufficient Republican support https://t.co/9q2eO8x4qC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One fun anecdote on this note: the vaunted cost-of-voting-index, which initially ranked Georgia as the 49th toughest state to vote in, revised Georgia's ranking to 25th--the largest shift of any state in their 'revision' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@AlexanderLouis6 yup you recall correctly — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But the Manchin plan resembles the Georgia system in more fundamental ways (AVR, early voting, ID required, no-excuse absentee seen as a bonus option). Perhaps that's because Georgia voting law has long been a lot closer to the national average than critics acknowledge — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's partly because neither the Manchin proposal--nor HR1--directly tackled the 'election subversion' concerns that were most significant, but overshadowed, in the new Georgia law — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Interesting, the Manchin compromise has very limited effect on Georgia's laws--at least as outlined in his memo https://t.co/KBRAKaBmJO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes and i really can't think of any example of a serious legislative effort that looks like this, even though most fail — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes right. as always, Ds will ultimately need a way through the GOP, whether through gutting the filibuster or 10 votes. they probably won't! but what is *really unusual* about this purportedly urgent effort is that the democrats haven't actually gotten to the obstacle yet — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes in the end the democrats will need to figure out a way through the GOP, whether through gutting the filibuster or 10 votes. that's always true. but what is *really unusual* about a purportedly urgent effort is that the democrats haven't actually gotten to the obstacle yet — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes I don’t think that’s in question — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten i think it's related. reminds me of the low turnout iowa caucus. a race in 'doubt' because it's wide-open is different because it's close, and a murky race doesn't attract interest. it's too hard to choose, and you just wind up not caring — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(the HR1 push, in contrast, seemed to depend on a West Wing theory of Manchin, in which he would wake up one morning, wholly persuaded by the Truth of progressive arguments and go back on all the things he's been saying about HR1 and the filibuster) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(at which point, you either surprise yourself and have 60 votes, or you hope that the failure of the effort causes Manchin to budge on the filibuster) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

yeah i'd be stunned if there are 10 Republicans who would take this. but as i've said, a few times now: the only way progressives can proceed, if you take Manchin at his word, is to go through all the motions of seriously trying to get 60 votes https://t.co/8C3wThLwV6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Progressives spent the spring focused on those issues, and so it would be quite a pivot to come back and say 'ok we're ok with letting your restrict mail voting and add ID requirements.' But there's a lot of reason to think they can do that without risk to themselves or democracy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The catch, of course, is that this logic requires progressives to recognize that voter suppression, however odious they may find it, is not a threat to democracy on the level of election subversion or 'minority rule' https://t.co/PyRoRJbyqy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think the window for this kind of grand bargain-ish approach, if it ever existed, probably closed several months ago. But if such a thing were possible, this is the sort of proposal you could imagine starting that conversation https://t.co/oGWDfxPrjQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @igorbobic: Here’s the list of voting reforms Manchin supports https://t.co/TvBlABBZbv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It'll be interesting to see all the info on what he wants, but it will be very interesting to see how progressives react to this kind of grand bargain-ish package https://t.co/L3OsEq3qkV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It'll be interesting to see the full set of information, but it will be very interesting to see how progressives react to this kind of grand bargain-ish package: trade voter ID for an end to gerrymandering, without doing much on the 'voter suppression' front — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @burgessev: Manchin circulating information to colleagues about what he wants + doesn't want in elections bill Wants expanded early vot… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NickRiccardi: What beating the virus looks like https://t.co/A02CNppvb0 — PolitiTweet.org