Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Monmouth gives Biden a 9 point lead, 50-41--adding to a growing body of state polls suggesting that Biden's lead has been growing over the last few weeks some confirmation to the idea that Biden's lead https://t.co/DdMtC2PxZs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nickconfessore: The NYT now has 6 million subscribers. This support means more to us than ever, as the pandemic kills what's left of a… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is the realm where today's MSU poll in MT is from, and I suspect we're going to see more here. It's too easy for some pollsters not to go this route. And we really don't know what we have here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

ike, that Meredith College poll of NC the other day was from a matched voter file sample, but you don't want any part of that poll I promise — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Like, that Meredith College poll of NC the other day was from a matched voter file sample from Dyanata, but you don't want any part of that poll I promise — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins bonus content, from our oct polls. Semi-fun thing is that neither Z nor Milennials were as pro-Biden as either 18-29 (Biden+18) or 18-34 (Biden+15) https://t.co/ClxvpvyytC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @davidshor: @xenocryptsite @Nate_Cohn This is also a fun one! https://t.co/tg1ozYYWtX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The 1/1 folks are also very old, which also adds up https://t.co/JnIiBbJNfi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And, importantly as far as I'm concerned, the polls over the last week of polls is beginning to further than just undoing what was left of Trump's initial stimulus/coronavirus bump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix in all seriousness, go look at the mi/wi/nc/pa voter file right now and look at the black share of the electorate v 14/16. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix taken together, i don't think that nonwhite voters have been part of the 'resistance surge.' instead, frankly, their turnout looks like more like GOP turnout over the period. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @carpediembud @Davin_Phoenix the major difference is the intepretative framework: 'what changes get Dems from losing in 2016 to winning in 17/18/specials' not "which group increased turnout since '14" (literally everyone, including Trump) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Nate_Cohn: @gelliottmorris @ejfagan And unless you have a different set of data here, it sure seems to me that YouGov also shows the bi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's been a week, but we're finally getting results from Wisconsin tonight, where there's a big Supreme Court contest and Democratic primary voters cast ballots in while he was still in the race. https://t.co/NzGN35CIaS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And one last out-take. I also like to look at state polls post-Pelosi decision to announce impeachment, since that's when we start getting state polls and we could use bigger N. The chart in the piece is post-1/1/20, since easier to grok. Anyway, here's post-9/26: https://t.co/nrdkQjhCHx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MattGarrahan: This is an astonishing story https://t.co/lSJ6qwLTLE https://t.co/MdrAoVJicd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As far as general election polls six-months from an election go, Biden+3 in Wisconsin while Trump approval at +5 strikes me as a relatively big deal (again, in the scheme of horse-race polls six months out) https://t.co/LZWzwdX5Ua — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @conorsen: Washington will fall out of the top 10 for case counts pretty soon. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @aaronecarroll: How are NBA players getting tested so easily. https://t.co/tD4WkpHFPb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SopanDeb: Holy cow, inbox: "BROOKLYN (March 17, 2020) – Four Brooklyn Nets players have tested positive for the COVID-19 virus. Of the… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nickconfessore: Should all debates have no audience? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @LC_Sanford: Using #SocialDistancing time to spread the good word @seth_j_hill https://t.co/z9BN8XxXfO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Buttigieg lead expands to 44 SDEs with 85% reporting, up from 28% in the last update — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten OTOH, it strikes me as equally or perhaps more important none of Sanders' rivals seem to have any kind of positive momentum at this point. If it's anyone, perhaps it's Klobuchar--who is farthest behind and who Sanders' rivals are counting on for 2nd choices — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten OTOH, it strikes me as equally or perhaps more important that it's not none of Sanders' rivals seem to have any kind of positive momentum at this point. And if it's anyone, perhaps it's Klobuchar--who is farthest behind and who Sanders' rivals are counting on for 2nd choices — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Monmouth trend strikes me as particularly significant, given that they were in the field earlier this month. So that's decent reason to believe Sanders has continued upward over a fairly short time period, not just since last year — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nickconfessore: Russian agents have been hacking into Burisma, possibly looking for the kind of incriminating material the president an… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

surprised by how many people disagree strongly on this; i would have expected that even the people who disagreed would have the case and thought it reasonable, but apparently not — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @steveschale: Basically life advice 👇👇 https://t.co/Oz0kWhEEHx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But if you're ranking things to watch in the Midwestern states, demographics are pretty low on the list. It's basically "if everything else is irrelevant or canceled out then demographics might barely win it for Democrats." — PolitiTweet.org