Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JMilesColeman @davesredist florida without the panhandle would be too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @RonBrownstein lol yeah ok, that's not at all what i said. i'd even say you were frankly dishonest, but i'll spare you all i'm saying that keeping the gop out of power--ie perpetual democratic control--isn't a solution, since the gop will be back. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @qdbui: In today’s story I explore two really intriguing observations about our recovery: 1) New businesses seem to spike after each rou… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @cwarshaw @davidshor @MarkMellman this is how you know shor has really made it. the ggmonsters are nowhere in site — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mattyglesias: No comment https://t.co/jGCpqnTP3h — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Every Clinton '16 state has vaccinated at least half of its population, except Nevada; every Trump '16 state has vaccinated less than half, except Pennsylvania https://t.co/aTbyAF6lmd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsWolf (greater than 60%* not 60 seats) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsWolf (i could be wrong) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsWolf my understanding was that this only applies if the legislature failed to pass a plan with >60 votes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JEMesserschmidt ultimately, thinking about the EC bias as a product of countermajoritarianism profoundly the source of the anti-Democratic, which is the point of the article — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Senate, on the other hand, really is designed to check the majority (the extent that's good or bad is another question, ofc). What's important is that the Senate, EC and House are all similarly biases against Dems, despite being intended to be biased in different ways — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are all sorts of ways to get a tie without red Minnesota, but Minnesota has to be red for the NY-->MN electoral vote, which turned on a handful of people in the census, to decide the election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My sense is that this is probably only the start of the conversation on how to address these kind of issues. Progressives have spent years thinking about expanding voter access. Few people have spent time any time thinking about election sub version — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @mattyglesias @CharlesFLehman it certainly has no chance. but let me put it this way: if there were 275 david shors commanding a majority of the house, senate, presidency, would they do it? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @cwarshaw it's an interesting twist. and it's a nice example how evaluating congressional maps by state really makes this harder — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw @SeanTrende of all the measures, the efficiency gap makes the most sense to me. but fwiw compactness / packing-cracking limitations could plausibly be imposed statutorily and without quantitative restrictions; it's just that no one (except ordinary citizens) cares about it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris i can understand that critique to an extent, but I don't accept it if the article explains sectarianism as a way to make sense of all sorts of things going on in the world--all the way down to silly dr. seuss--not just the threat to democracy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But the fact that Democrats *also* think Republicans are immoral, alien enemy (so justifiably that calling it sectarianism could be offensive both-sides-ism) does have consequences with risks of its own, even if for now they're badly overshadowed by the right — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@im_sorry_wtf @Libnex2 @PoliticsWolf they're both 50% black — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsWolf and as i said long ago, i do think always think your maps are drawn in a way that makes it easy for me to accept the conclusion that they're *the* or the *likeliest* nonpartisan maps, as opposed to just a nonpartisan map — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mlatner @ElectProject @davedaley3 notice, however, that there's no claim in my thread about a net-attenuation in the effect of gerrymandering; there's only a claim on the net-effect of geography/spatial inefficiency. those are separate issues — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @davedaley3 @mlatner tldr: if geography hurts democrats less than they did a decade ago, that's actually an argument that... helps anti-gerrymandering folks. my god — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Democratic inefficiency story is still more-or-less true in the North. Despite Trump's rural gains, the GOP still doesn't win rural areas in MI/PA/WI/MN/NY by anything like the margin than Dems win DET/PHI/MIL/MIN/DET/NY, etc. That puts the Democrats at a real disadvantage — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @WAStateArchives: Something we learned today: between April 24, 1854 and January 12, 1858, Walla Walla County was HUUUGE and stretched a… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If I had to add one thing, it would be that the strategy for passing the bill--to say it's a necessary t save democracy--has faltered in part because the bill was not crafted with the goal of protecting democracy, even if elements of it may serve that objective — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What I am really convinced of, though, is that long lines really matter, and the reformers may be a mistake by focusing on expanding voting options (say, assuring no-excuse mail voting) as opposed to protecting the fundamentals (making sure there aren't long lines) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @alexhazanov: This is a very smart thread. I think Nate makes a very good case that both HR1 and much of the reaction to the Georgia law… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a result, the proposals for a slimmed down HR1 don't even include the provisions in HR1 that are relevant for protecting against election subversion — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But tbh I don't even much evidence of thinking about this stuff, in part because HR1 was written pre-2020 but also because the fight over voter access has received 99% of activist attention — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @UpshotNYT if you add research to the broad body of evidence already published--which as you said, basically finds null to limited turnout effects, with some outliers either way--i'm happy to revisit my conclusion. but i don't think the scatterplot gets you there — PolitiTweet.org