Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

that said, the old maxim that you should 'trust the average' over a single high-quality poll has gotten worse; going forward, there's an increasingly strong basis to give more weight to outlying NYT/Siena poll seriously than i would have said/thought before — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A few signs of movement toward Trump, pollster-to-pollster, over the last month or so https://t.co/pPnJS1EVXf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Replying to @Nate_Cohn Well, in NE-1 'A' yielded R+16 in the midterm congressional election 'B' yielded R+6 in the special election with the same candidates So the correct answer would seem to be D -- `A` was much more Republican than B — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, in NE-1 'A' yielded R+16 in the midterm congressional election 'B' yielded R+6 in the special election with the same candidates So the correct answer would seem to be D -- `B` was much better for Democrats — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, in NE-1 'A' yielded R+16 in the midterm congressional election 'B' yielded R+6 in the special election with the same candidates So the right answer while it's possible there are other effects, the correct answer would seem to be D -- `B` was much better for Democrats — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Do you think turnout A or turnout B is better for Democrats or Republicans? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @LoganDobson: pro bowl punting from Mitch at least — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot (or nondisclosure of funding) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject behind paywall so can't read, but i don't doubt that it proved to be fairly accurate -- the polls were extremely accurate, after all. but in part as a result, i'm not really sure how the early voting offered a different take — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The needle is live. Warnock leads by 1 point -- the results are almost exactly in line with our pre-election estimates, which supposed a re-run of the general election. https://t.co/MNUKRLEInY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ksadjadpour: The rumors of the poor health of Iran’s Supreme Leader @khamenei_ir appear to be true, as reported by the NYT. His death w… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @davidshor @marcushjohnson from the standpoint of the regression, it is entirely possible that trump fares better among wwc if he never says a word about hispanics, muslims, blm, etc., sticks to china/trade and in doing so holds the low-RR WWC. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @davidshor @marcushjohnson my point is that there's a constellation of attitudes correlate with growing class polarization, just like many issues correlated with generational change. many of those attitudes are RR-adjacent (religion, anti-latino, anti-lgbt, anti-muslim, sexism, etc.). others are not. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @davidshor @marcushjohnson it's totally fair, at the individual level, that attitudes about gay marriage were more predictive of vote in '08 than age. but if you want to downplay the generational change framing of that election, i think that would be a mistake. why were the young people pro-gay marriage? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @davidshor @marcushjohnson 'it's not generational change, it's about gay marriage' is just... missing something in '08, even though attitudes about gay marriage prevailed over age in a regression. 'it's not about industrial labor participation, it's about attitudes toward business' is similarly off — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JayCostTWS in practice / as an empirical matter, it just seems hard for an issue to rise to become so important without it also becoming important in a proportional system, too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JayCostTWS anyway, i was mainly thinking about your story about the 'west'--not the south. clearly, if the south retained power in perpetuity, it wouldn't have seceded. the senate certainly advanced that, if it's your goal--the electoral college, interestingly, most certainly did not — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @otis_reid @RyanDEnos looking through, 2/3 of the 367k voted in the march primary — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@simon_bazelon @BrendanNyhan @davidshor @nbeaudrot @mattyglesias @MattGrossmann the GOP's structural advantage is significant, but the democrats have control of the chamber today for a reason! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @simon_bazelon @mattyglesias @MattGrossmann @BrendanNyhan but you can agree that's not popularism, right? a poll-driven mute button on progressive excess doesn't really offer in this regard, much in the same way that the RNC autopsy post '12 doesn't propose Trump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This isn't necessarily a crazy level of churn, fwiw, so I'd be a little cautious about interpreting this as a sign of mass strategic voting In TX, 14% of '20 D primary voters cast R ballots in the R primary in '22. 6% of '18 D primary voters did as well https://t.co/XavyLIlhfr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BruneElections turner is 43% reporting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The same thing can be said for the 'democracy' issue: it may not affect the generic ballot, but I am quite open to the idea that individual stop-the-steal-type GOP candidates can be materially punished for it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@valeriecbradley conversely, wound up getting to a seeming unbiased answer by weighting to recalled '16 vote while grossly underrepresenting didn't vote/don't recall — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In this narrow American context, I'll argue that Ideology in America probably deserves to be cited a little more often in these conversations. Many similar arguments but in a more familiar context than European Green parties or whatever — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

interestingly, i went on a field trip to grcc to learn about the salmon life cycle in middle school--and it was probably on 4/20 https://t.co/6SGaq8DkfE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @albrgr @abarber1 b is a common view of why 'majorities' crumble: parties exhaust whatever 'political capital' they gain from favorable events by embracing policies set them back to status quo ante. what would be unique here is the speed that this happens--ie: before even a single election win — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ProfNickStephan mail ballots were 58-42 D heading into the election, 65-35 R among in-person ballots — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JonHeyman: Japanese star Seiya Suzuki is headed to Cubs @thekapman reports $70M, 5 years — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @NickRiccardi @EricLevitz @BenjySarlin (and the GOP's tendency to elevate those same issues when progressives win could also bias our perceptions of how often they win out) — PolitiTweet.org