Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

The Messianic illusion is that a single person σωτήρ (or, worse, a single action) will come to save the world, fix society, improve the economy, rescue the company, etc. But advance comes from distributed progressive improvements, via negativa, mostly thanks to funerals. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@cadependdiallo @Sg423Sg @Karunakaran__K @harris3 It is the ONLY thing in the real world wrt to TWTR. You can trade it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

In general geopolitics is used to hide incompetence. People are more interested in electricity than GeoBS. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@omar_ghxd Pray, more — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@omar_ghxd It is working... slowly — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@BCdeMontesquieu @souhad_16 I have no idea abt the expected-unexpected proportions https://t.co/hPtILLxayT — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@souhad_16 Weyn l akhbar? — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@souhad_16 Shu? Kheir? — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@omar_ghxd Yes I meant registration is a filter & expression of intent. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@jeff070 @omar_ghxd Eh 3indé w sawwatet fiya — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@omar_ghxd Because there is a FILTER: Diaspora pple like me had to get ID cards to register. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@DriveHip @Firsou @financequant @TMessi_1 @shakeel It is like medicine. You can learn from nondoctors but you must be careful. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

4) The coauthor @nickplatias is visibly incompetent, actually hallucinating since his peg went to 0, perhaps they gave him too many sedatives after the loss. But other fellow is an economist at Harvard who doesn't know standard simulations techniques. https://t.co/UcwHCAfVsC — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@Firsou @financequant @TMessi_1 @shakeel Also Firas you see someone who calls himself "Polymath" with a Patreon account and NO peer reviewed publications, be careful. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@Firsou @financequant @TMessi_1 @shakeel What I am saying (seem my language thread on classical languages), Vulgar Latin is conversational HENCE evolved, unlike the written language that stayed fixed & backward compatible — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@Firsou @financequant @TMessi_1 @shakeel Non recte (recta?). Simile est in fus7a et aliis linguis. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@Aychde1142_ @omar_ghxd Much greener today — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@omar_ghxd The richest is actually north of that, around Amioun. Extend to Tripoli — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

3) The precedent is J. Stiglitz and Peter Orzag, using similar Mickey Mouse simulations, putting their name on a paper showing Fannie & Freddie had no chance of going bust... just as I was saying it is sitting on barrels of dynamite. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@Firsou @financequant @TMessi_1 @shakeel Latinum vernaculum (linguae latinae vulgaris), non classicum, pater Italicus est. Ita quodam modo Italica proxima est Latino sicut circa 500-800 anno domini. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

2) Turns out Di Maggio @ProfDiMaggio and Platias are irresponsible & must be sued for incompetence & causing pple to rely on their models. We've known for 35 y to NEVER simulate Geo Brow Motion without stochasticizing vol to simulate tails. See my Dynamic Hedging (1997), preLTCM! https://t.co/XKbNl1X5S5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Don't give Monte Carlo a bad name Platias & Di Maggio, econ & "crypto" specialists, gave TERRA$ no chance of collapsing from the peg simulating "1 mil. y". 1-MC works, BUT ONLY if you are using correct assumptions (tails & feedback loops) 2-No diff betw 1 mil & 1 bil years IYIs — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@financequant @shakeel We have no idea when these took place as these palatisations are frequent. The palatisation [k] -> [tʃ], [ts],"tch" is common. In Bagdad, kalb is pronounced "tshalb". In oth. dialects "sh" becomes "zh", prosciuto becomes prozhut; likewise in the UAE "shariKa" is pron "Sharja". — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@MDiPaolaMD @HomegrownJoan2 Be safe! — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@mathisstillfun Higher dimensions: More generally a product of x_i under sum constraints will produce a maximum value at equality of x_i. Proof via concavity. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@farhatlectures @WaelChehab1 I apologize profusely but you appear to be a total idiot. Nothing personal. I block idiots. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

My summary of Charbel Nahas: "Charbel Venezuela". — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

RT @Sg423Sg: Lmao. Can’t make this up. A Harvard Econ prof’s research found based on 1 million years worth of “simulations data” that $LUNA… — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@mathisstillfun Derivatives of (x_1 x_2)- λ(x_1 + x_2_-X/2) equal 0 give x_1=x_2=X/4 for total area X^2/16 — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@SS_strength When conflicted, use a log ratio. Relative doesn't apply to large quantities. — PolitiTweet.org